Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
153 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 733 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020/

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 312 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Sunday/...

After a largely benign afternoon and evening as far as convective
activity is concerned, showers have actually been more plentiful
into the overnight hours. Untapped energy is working in tandem with
the late arriving seabreeze front to allow for nocturnal convection
that should persist for a few more hours. Otherwise, a muggy night
out there with temps still in the upper 70s to around 80s at many
locations.

Mid and upper level ridge remains in place for today, largely over
North GA portions. Despite this position, moisture trapped beneath
the ridge will increase allowing for slightly higher pops along and
north of the I20 corridor. Warm temps aloft between -4C and -6C will
limit available energy for storms. CAPE values will only be on the
order of 2000 J/KG with mainly garden variety storms. Cannot rule
out an isolated severe storm given high values of Downdraft CAPE
this afternoon.

Pretty much the same story for Sunday as ridge maintains its control
over the area. If anything, temps aloft actually get a little warmer
but this will be offset slightly by the increased deep layer
moisture from the east and precipitable water increasing to over 2
inches. Will carry a small area of likely pops but otherwise mid
range chance pops and again favoring the North GA portion.

Deese

LONG TERM /Sunday Night through Friday/...

No significant changes to the extended forecast trends as the region
remains under weak upper ridging through the majority of the
forecast. Hot temperatures and diurnally favored convection expected
through the long-term forecast period. Medium-range models weaken
the surface ridging over the region next week with a weak frontal
boundary sagging into the area with better convective coverage
across north Georgia where moisture and instability also run a bit
higher. Models show some amplification of the overall upper-level
pattern by the end of next week, however still a fair bit of
variation concerning how far west the upper ridge retreats as it
amplifies.

Hot afternoon temperatures and ample low-level moisture will result
in elevated heat index values through the period. Will likely see
some areas approaching Heat Advisory levels through most of the
period, especially across central and eastern Georgia.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
SHRA/TSRA popping up across the area and should see TAF sites
affected over the next few hours. Should see these showers continue
through Thu evening hours before diminishing after sunset. Will
see another round Sunday afternoon. Ceilings should be mainly VFR
except in and around SHRA/TSRA where you will see MVFR ceilings
this afternoon and Sunday afternoon. Winds will stay out of the W
to NW at 10kt or less. Will see some VRB gust in the 20-30kt range
in and around convective activity.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence high on all elements.

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          95  73  94  74 /  50  30  40  20
Atlanta         93  75  92  75 /  40  30  40  20
Blairsville     88  68  85  69 /  50  30  60  30
Cartersville    94  73  93  74 /  40  30  40  20
Columbus        95  75  96  76 /  30  10  30  10
Gainesville     92  73  91  74 /  50  30  40  30
Macon           95  73  96  75 /  20  10  20  10
Rome            95  73  94  74 /  40  20  40  20
Peachtree City  93  73  93  74 /  40  20  40  20
Vidalia         96  73  96  75 /   5   5  20  10

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Deese
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-191600-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
1148 AM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected, mainly during the
afternoon and evening. A few strong thunderstorms are possible with
strong, gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally heavy rain.

Heat index values of 97 to 104 degrees can be expected over much of
the area outside of the mountains.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday...

For Sunday and Monday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms are
expected across the area during the afternoon and evening hours. A
few strong storms are possible with strong, gusty winds, frequent
lightning, small hail and locally heavy rainfall.

For Tuesday through Friday, Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are
expected across the area. A few storms may be strong to severe with
damaging winds, frequent lightning, hail and locally heavy rainfall.

Heat index values of 100 to 105 degrees can be expected over much of
the area outside of the mountains through Friday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

GAZ038-039-181830-
Wilkes GA-Oglethorpe GA-
159 PM EDT Sat Jul 18 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WILKES AND
NORTHEASTERN OGLETHORPE COUNTIES UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

At 158 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Norman, or 11 miles
south of Middleton. This storm was nearly stationary.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Tignall, Jacksons Crossroads, Mallorysville, Delhi and Norman.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3384 8278 3392 8289 3400 8290 3400 8288
      3398 8286 3398 8285 3399 8284 3397 8278
      3397 8275 3399 8272 3390 8266
TIME...MOT...LOC 1758Z 222DEG 3KT 3394 8278

WIND...40MPH