Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
333 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

A closed low over the OH Valley this afternoon will drop southward
into the Savannah River Valley through the short term. Meanwhile
wedging will develop at the surface as the remains of a front and
a short wave linger just off the coast of the Carolinas. Bands of
showers and thunderstorms rotating around the upper low...combined
with the easterly flow should affect much of north and central GA
through the short term. Cooling aloft and afternoon instability
could produce a few strong to severe thunderstorms across north GA
this afternoon and evening. Showers and thunderstorms should have
a mainly diurnal pattern through the short term...but expect some
convection to linger overnight. Max temperatures Monday should be
a few degrees cooler across northeastern areas due to the easterly
winds and increased clouds.

41

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

The main feature through the long term period will be a closed upper
level low that is expected to linger near the local forecast area
through the rest of the week. This low is expected to keep moisture
across the area leading to chances for showers and thunderstorms in
the afternoon and evenings.

By Tuesday, the low is expected to be centered in the vicinity of
eastern Georgia/South Carolina/North Carolina border. As the low
lingers just northeast of the area, chances for showers and
thunderstorms are expected to increase, especially across portions
of northern and eastern Georgia, in the afternoon and evening. As
the low meanders in the vicinity through Wednesday and Thursday,
those chances for showers and thunderstorms will continue, although
mainly in a diurnal trend and focused more across northern and
eastern Georgia.

By late Tuesday into Wednesday, a surface low is forecast to develop
along a stalled boundary just off the North/South Carolina
coastline. As this system meanders slowly up the coast, high
pressure will be expected to push into portions of northern and
northeastern Georgia, allowing for weak wedging across the area by
mid-week onward. In the upper levels, the low is expected to broaden
and lift slightly later on Thursday before beginning to be swept up
in the upper level flow on Friday. While models have come into much
better agreement on the progression of the low pressure system on
Friday, some differences in timing remain. The ECMWF tries to clear
the local forecast area by Saturday afternoon while the GFS starts
to show clearing closer to Saturday evening. Overall, continued a
blend for this time frame, keeping just slight chance pops just
across portions of eastern Georgia for Saturday afternoon.

With some periods of wedging and additional cloud cover, high
temperatures through the extended are expected to be fairly mild and
overall slightly below average with high temps in the 70s and 80s.
By Friday into the weekend, temps are expected to trend warmer with
highs in the upper 80s and lower 90s areawide. Low temperatures are
forecast to be slightly below average as well with lows in the upper
50s and 60s, before increasing to the upper 60s to lower 70s for the
weekend.

Reaves

&&

AVIATION...
18Z Update...
SCT/BKN 040-060 expected this afternoon with some higher layers.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms will develop mainly this
afternoon and evening across the northern taf sites. VFR overnight
with storms diminishing but could be some mvfr stratus mainly KAHN
toward morning. Basically Monday should be a repeat of today with
a chance of thunderstorms across all taf sites. Winds stay east
to NE mainly 4-9 kts.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update... Medium to high on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          62  76  60  75 /  20  50  30  30
Atlanta         65  78  60  78 /  20  40  20  30
Blairsville     56  70  54  71 /  40  60  40  40
Cartersville    60  81  59  81 /  30  30  20  20
Columbus        66  87  64  84 /  10  30  20  20
Gainesville     61  73  58  75 /  30  50  30  30
Macon           64  84  62  80 /  10  40  20  30
Rome            60  82  59  82 /  30  30  20  20
Peachtree City  62  81  60  80 /  20  40  20  20
Vidalia         66  84  64  81 /  20  40  30  30

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Reaves
AVIATION...41

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
253 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-151900-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
253 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight...

Scattered thunderstorms are possible this afternoon and evening
across north Georgia. Some isolated storms may become strong to
severe. Gusty winds, small hail, frequent lightning, and locally
heavy rainfall will be possible in any stronger storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

From Monday through Saturday, isolated to scattered thunderstorms
will be possible each afternoon, especially over the eastern half
of the forecast area. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy
rain will be possible with any storms that do develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

GAZ007-142130-
Gilmer GA-
500 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR GILMER COUNTY UNTIL 530 PM EDT...

At 500 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Mountaintown, or near
Ellijay...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Ellijay, East Ellijay, Talona, Cartecay, Tails Creek, Pisgah,
Mountaintown, Roy and Roundtop.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3469 8426 3455 8445 3455 8447 3456 8447
      3456 8449 3455 8448 3455 8450 3457 8450
      3455 8453 3471 8466 3478 8464 3479 8461
      3483 8458 3486 8455 3486 8451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2100Z 318DEG 13KT 3476 8455

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
512 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

GAZ033-034-045-142145-
North Fulton GA-DeKalb GA-Gwinnett GA-
512 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH FULTON...NORTHWESTERN
DEKALB AND SOUTHWESTERN GWINNETT COUNTIES UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 511 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Alpharetta, or 14
miles southwest of Cumming...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lawrenceville, Sandy Springs, Roswell, Johns Creek, Alpharetta,
Dunwoody, Duluth, Suwanee, Lilburn, Chamblee, Norcross, Doraville,
Clarkston, Berkeley Lake, Tucker, Mountain Park, Mechanicsville and
Scottdale.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3410 8425 3410 8422 3409 8419 3407 8418
      3406 8415 3406 8413 3396 8399 3378 8423
      3398 8438 3399 8438 3401 8440 3403 8440
      3413 8426
TIME...MOT...LOC 2111Z 317DEG 13KT 3403 8428

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
514 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

GAZ011-019-142145-
Chattooga GA-Floyd GA-
514 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CHATTOOGA AND FLOYD COUNTIES
UNTIL 545 PM EDT...

At 514 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Tidings, or near
Summerville...moving southeast at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...40 to 50 mph wind...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           cloud to ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Rome, Summerville, Shannon, Lyerly, Pinson, Berryton, Tidings,
Armuchee, James H. Floyd State Park and Holland.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3442 8543 3454 8526 3443 8509 3441 8511
      3441 8510 3440 8505 3437 8501 3436 8502
      3418 8524
TIME...MOT...LOC 2114Z 317DEG 13KT 3443 8529

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...50MPH