Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
339 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Main concerns in the short term period are chances and coverage
of convection and will there be any isolated flooding from
rain bands.

PW values thru Tues night fairly high but not extreme, 1.75-1.90
inches, above average but not near 99th percentiles for this time
year as is expected to our west. While our average QPF for this
and more so Tues afternoon/evening are only 0.25-0.50 where rain
occurs, isolated spots could see 1-2 in/hr rates, with 1-2 in
totals perhaps more. Not expecting any flooding with even those
kinds of numbers, but there could be drainage issues in urban
areas.

Otherwise, convection could be strong Tues with gusty winds and
frequent lightning. Storms so far today have not been to intense
and forecast SBCAPE not expected to be much higher than today.
Will continue to monitor.

Raised min temps tonight a bit, perhaps not enough, based on very
rich moisture and observed biases from last night.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
An incoming cold front on Wednesday will enhance convective
coverage, especially by afternoon as instability increases with
daytime heating. Afternoon MUCAPE values in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg
will lead to some potential for more robust thunderstorm
development, though shear will be limited. Given some damaging wind
threat, a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorm encompasses much of
the area on Wednesday.

The cold front will begin to clear parts of north Georgia from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, ushering in a noticeably
drier airmass. Dewpoints drop from the 70s to the 50s and low 60s
behind the front through the day Thursday across northern and
western Georgia. The front will lose forward momentum somewhere
across southeast Georgia on Thursday which will sustain the chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms in play across southeastern
portions of the area. The stationary front will then linger across
southeast Georgia into the Georgia Coastal Plain into the weekend,
keeping at least chance PoPs relegated to the southeast zones. A
secondary weak front by Sunday appears mostly dry at this time with
a reinforcement of drier air in north Georgia.

Temperatures behind the midweek front will run largely near normal
through the coming weekend.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
IFR/MVFR stratus finally dissipating even over NE GA airports.
SHRA/TSRA developing this afternoon and evening but coverage
should be limited to 30-50%. Have TEMPO 20-00Z at all sites. More
near or sub IFR stratus expected after 09Z at all sites then
clearing after 16Z. More coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected tomorrow
afternoon so have prevailing TSRA starting at 21Z Tues at KATL.
Sfc winds will remain SSE 7-10kts then 3-6kts after 01Z, then
becoming SSW 6-9kts after 14Z Tues.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA coverage and likelihood this afternoon
and Tuesday
Medium-High confidence on all other elements

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  87  71  87 /  40  70  60  70
Atlanta         73  85  71  87 /  40  70  60  70
Blairsville     69  81  68  81 /  40  70  60  70
Cartersville    71  86  71  88 /  40  70  60  60
Columbus        73  88  72  90 /  30  80  60  70
Gainesville     72  83  70  85 /  40  70  60  70
Macon           73  88  71  88 /  30  70  60  70
Rome            72  87  71  88 /  40  70  50  60
Peachtree City  71  85  70  87 /  30  80  60  70
Vidalia         74  91  72  91 /  40  70  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SNELSON

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
533 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-092145-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
533 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Isolated thunderstorms are possible this evening. Some of these
storms could contain heavy rain, gusty winds and frequent
lightning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday...

Scattered thunderstorms are expected across the forecast area
each day from Tuesday through Thursday, followed by isolated
thunderstorms focused in east-central Georgia on Friday and
Saturday. Frequent lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds will be
the primary hazards with any storms that develop.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
612 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

GAZ062-075-076-082245-
Jefferson GA-Glascock GA-Warren GA-
612 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN JEFFERSON...NORTHERN
GLASCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

At 612 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Gibson...moving north
at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Warrenton, Gibson, Stapleton, Avera, Camak, Reese and Bastonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3313 8243 3327 8271 3343 8270 3348 8260
      3345 8259 3341 8255 3335 8255 3336 8253
      3334 8250 3334 8245 3333 8242
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 179DEG 15KT 3326 8256

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
640 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

GAZ112-113-082315-
Toombs GA-Montgomery GA-
640 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR TOOMBS AND SOUTHEASTERN
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 640 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Cedar Crossing, or
near Plant Hatch...moving north at 20 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Lyons, Vidalia, Uvalda, Higgston, Santa Claus, Alston, Center, Toombs
Central, Ohoopee, New Branch, Ponderosa, McNatt Falls, South
Thompson, English Eddy, Grays Landing, Rock Springs, Cedar Crossing
and Johnson Corner.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3194 8228 3193 8230 3195 8231 3193 8231
      3194 8238 3196 8238 3195 8239 3197 8244
      3197 8249 3196 8250 3195 8248 3195 8251
      3221 8253 3228 8231 3223 8221 3216 8218
      3214 8220 3191 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2240Z 194DEG 15KT 3201 8238

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

GAZ062-075-076-082300-
Jefferson GA-Glascock GA-Warren GA-
642 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JEFFERSON...
NORTHEASTERN GLASCOCK AND SOUTHEASTERN WARREN COUNTIES UNTIL 700 PM
EDT...

At 642 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Wrens, or 11 miles
east of Gibson...moving north at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...pea sized hail and frequent cloud to
           ground lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Wrens, Matthews and Bastonville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning.

LAT...LON 3320 8225 3319 8240 3329 8254 3335 8252
      3334 8250 3334 8245 3333 8242 3331 8240
      3331 8234 3330 8231 3327 8229 3327 8226
      3323 8223
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 194DEG 15KT 3326 8240

HAIL...0.25IN
WIND...40MPH

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