Special Weather Statement, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
339 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Tuesday Night/...
Main concerns in the short term period are chances and coverage
of convection and will there be any isolated flooding from
rain bands.

PW values thru Tues night fairly high but not extreme, 1.75-1.90
inches, above average but not near 99th percentiles for this time
year as is expected to our west. While our average QPF for this
and more so Tues afternoon/evening are only 0.25-0.50 where rain
occurs, isolated spots could see 1-2 in/hr rates, with 1-2 in
totals perhaps more. Not expecting any flooding with even those
kinds of numbers, but there could be drainage issues in urban
areas.

Otherwise, convection could be strong Tues with gusty winds and
frequent lightning. Storms so far today have not been to intense
and forecast SBCAPE not expected to be much higher than today.
Will continue to monitor.

Raised min temps tonight a bit, perhaps not enough, based on very
rich moisture and observed biases from last night.

SNELSON

.LONG TERM /Wednesday through Monday/...
An incoming cold front on Wednesday will enhance convective
coverage, especially by afternoon as instability increases with
daytime heating. Afternoon MUCAPE values in excess of 1500-2000 J/kg
will lead to some potential for more robust thunderstorm
development, though shear will be limited. Given some damaging wind
threat, a Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorm encompasses much of
the area on Wednesday.

The cold front will begin to clear parts of north Georgia from
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, ushering in a noticeably
drier airmass. Dewpoints drop from the 70s to the 50s and low 60s
behind the front through the day Thursday across northern and
western Georgia. The front will lose forward momentum somewhere
across southeast Georgia on Thursday which will sustain the chance
for scattered showers and thunderstorms in play across southeastern
portions of the area. The stationary front will then linger across
southeast Georgia into the Georgia Coastal Plain into the weekend,
keeping at least chance PoPs relegated to the southeast zones. A
secondary weak front by Sunday appears mostly dry at this time with
a reinforcement of drier air in north Georgia.

Temperatures behind the midweek front will run largely near normal
through the coming weekend.

RW

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
IFR/MVFR stratus finally dissipating even over NE GA airports.
SHRA/TSRA developing this afternoon and evening but coverage
should be limited to 30-50%. Have TEMPO 20-00Z at all sites. More
near or sub IFR stratus expected after 09Z at all sites then
clearing after 16Z. More coverage of SHRA/TSRA expected tomorrow
afternoon so have prevailing TSRA starting at 21Z Tues at KATL.
Sfc winds will remain SSE 7-10kts then 3-6kts after 01Z, then
becoming SSW 6-9kts after 14Z Tues.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Medium confidence on TSRA coverage and likelihood this afternoon
and Tuesday
Medium-High confidence on all other elements

SNELSON

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          72  87  71  87 /  40  70  60  70
Atlanta         73  85  71  87 /  40  70  60  70
Blairsville     69  81  68  81 /  40  70  60  70
Cartersville    71  86  71  88 /  40  70  60  60
Columbus        73  88  72  90 /  30  80  60  70
Gainesville     72  83  70  85 /  40  70  60  70
Macon           73  88  71  88 /  30  70  60  70
Rome            72  87  71  88 /  40  70  50  60
Peachtree City  71  85  70  87 /  30  80  60  70
Vidalia         74  91  72  91 /  40  70  60  70

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...SNELSON
LONG TERM....RW
AVIATION...SNELSON

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Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
348 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

GAZ074-085-082015-
Washington GA-Johnson GA-
348 PM EDT Mon Jun 8 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN WASHINGTON AND
NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM EDT...

At 348 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was near Oconee, or 10 miles
northwest of Wrightsville...moving north at 15 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Sandersville, Tennille, Harrison, Oconee, Donovan and Hebron.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3275 8271 3277 8296 3280 8295 3282 8297
      3284 8297 3285 8299 3296 8302 3301 8285
      3296 8268
TIME...MOT...LOC 1948Z 181DEG 14KT 3283 8286

WIND...40MPH