River Flood Warning 470, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
718 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

...00Z Aviation Discussion and Evening Update...

.UPDATE...

Scattered showers will remain across the forecast area this
evening into the overnight as a very weak front pushed into the
ATL metro area. Thunderstorm chances are non-zero, but looks very
bleak as we get into the rest of the evening. Overnight
temperatures will remain abnormally high, roughly 20-30 degrees
above normal, with lows along and southeast in the mid 60s to low
70s, before rebounding in the 70s tomorrow. As the front continues
to push through the area, showers should be pushed into eastern
and east central Georgia by the morning as dry air filters into
the area behind the frontal system.

Thiem

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 242 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020/

SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...
Models continue to come into good agreement through the short-term
forecast period. Fairly strong zonal to southwesterly upper flow
across the southern U.S. Models and official track for Hurricane/
Tropical Storm Eta keep direct impacts across the forecast area to a
minimum. Main impact will be to maintain moist easterly flow ahead
of the cold front working its way across the region tonight through
tomorrow. Instability and shear marginal, but lack of strong forcing
along the somewhat diffuse frontal boundary should keep chances for
strong to severe thunderstorms minimal. Current forecast track for
Eta also dials back the overall precipitation amounts expected.
Localized heavy rainfall in stronger storms still likely, but
chances for a more widespread flood threat is low. Precipitation
wanes from west to east late tonight through Thursday evening, but
scattered showers are likely to linger in our far eastern, and
especially southeastern, counties through tomorrow night.
Temperatures remain well above seasonal normals tonight and
tomorrow, but some moderation filters in from the west by Thursday
night.

20

LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...
The extended begins with the remnants of EAT now just off the SC
coast and moving rapidly to the NE. There will be a much drier
airmass across the area with things staying dry through day 7. This
drier airmass continues through Sat as a weakening cold front nears
the area from the NW. This front really dries out as it pushes into
NW GA around 18z Sun. May see some isolated showers Sunday
afternoon across N GA but will mainly see increased cloud cover.
This front will mainly help to reinforce the dry air over the region
and usher in a large high pressure ridge. This ridge is expected to
stay parked over the region through the end of the extended forecast.
Daytime highs stay in the 60s and 70s through the end of the
forecast period. Night time lows dip down into the 40s and 50s by
Sunday night and into the 30s and 40s by Monday night.

01

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z Update...
Primarily VFR conditions with patchy LIFR to MVFR scattered around
the area with SCT -SHRA. TSRA has mostly exited the area but a
non-zero chance will remain through the evening. IFR cigs will
become more widespread overnight between 8-11Z with MVFR/IFR
VSBYs. SHRA will also remain through the night, clearing around
the ATL metro around 08Z but may linger around AHN and MCN into
the late morning to afternoon. Cigs across the area in the morning
should rise to MVFR by 16-17Z, and VFR by 17-20Z.

//ATL Confidence...00Z Update...
Medium Confidence on all elements.

Thiem

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          68  78  60  76 /  70  60  10   5
Atlanta         66  74  55  71 /  70  30   5   5
Blairsville     62  70  50  67 /  80  40  10   0
Cartersville    61  73  51  71 /  70  20   5   0
Columbus        69  80  57  77 /  60  20   5   0
Gainesville     67  76  57  73 /  70  40  10   5
Macon           69  81  58  80 /  60  60  10  10
Rome            61  73  49  71 /  70  10   5   0
Peachtree City  67  75  54  73 /  70  30   5   0
Vidalia         73  79  67  79 /  70  70  50  20

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Thiem
LONG TERM....01
AVIATION...Thiem

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
928 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-130230-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
928 PM EST Wed Nov 11 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

Residual showers will continue overnight through the forecast
area. Although not expected, very isolated storms cannot be
completely ruled out. The primary threat with any remaining storms
will be locally heavy rain which could lead to isolated flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

The focus for locally heavy rainfall will shift to Central GA on
Thursday as the tropical moisture pulls out from NW to SE during
the course of the day.

Not expecting anymore hazardous weather through the middle of next
week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
738 PM EST WED NOV 11 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 PM     FLASH FLOOD      1 S ADAIRSVILLE         34.35N  84.93W
11/11/2020                   BARTOW             GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WHITE ROAD AND SEVERAL OTHER ROADS AROUND ADAIRSVILLE
            WERE REPORTED WITH WATER RUNNING OVER THEM. NO ROADS
            WERE CLOSED DUE TO FLOODING. SEVERAL FIELDS AND PASTURES
            WERE REPORTED FLOODED AS WELL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2001335

LREAVES