Alert archive / Georgia / River Flood Warnings in 2020

River Flood Warning 307, NWS Atlanta, GA

April 19, 2020Jones County, Georgia

NWS Atlanta, GA issued this river flood warning at Apr 19, 2020, 9:42 PM EDT for Jones County, Georgia. It took effect at Apr 20, 2020, 4:57 AM EDT. It was in force for 17 hr.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued
Apr 19, 2020, 9:42 PM EDT (01:42 UTC)
In effect from
Apr 20, 2020, 4:57 AM EDT
Expired
Apr 20, 2020, 10:26 PM EDT
In force
17 hr
Issued by
NWS Atlanta, GA
Area
Storm-based polygon
Flood severity
Minor

County Jones County, GA

The radar

The Robins AFB radar (KJGX), 59 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The river

Written for the forecast point Falling Creek near Juliette (FALG1). The gauge peaked at 15.01 ft at Apr 20, 2020, 1:00 PM EDT.

actionminormoderate5101504/2004/2104/22
Action stage
11 ft
Minor stage
13 ft
Moderate stage
17 ft
Major stage
21 ft

This gauge today: stage, forecast and historic crests

Stage from the USGS instantaneous record for site 02212600, one reading an hour, from a day before the product to a day after it ended. Flood stages are today's.

The text

As transmitted.

336 
WGUS42 KFFC 200142
FLWFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Warning
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
942 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a Flood 
Warning for the following rivers in Georgia...

  Falling Creek near East Juliette  affecting Jones County


.Recent heavy rainfall has caused significant runoff into streams and
rivers which will cause flooding in some areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

All persons with interests along the river should monitor the latest
forecasts...and be prepared to take necessary precautions to protect
life and property.

The latest stage data was furnished in cooperation with the United 
States Geological Survey.

&&

GAC169-201541-
/O.NEW.KFFC.FL.W.0307.200420T0857Z-200421T0226Z/
/FALG1.1.ER.200420T0857Z.200420T1500Z.200420T2026Z.NO/
942 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

The National Weather Service in Peachtree City has issued a
* Flood Warning for 
  The Falling Creek near East Juliette .
* From late tonight until Monday evening.
* At 9 PM Sunday the stage was 9.0 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by early Monday and continue 
  to rise to near 16.2 feet by late Monday morning. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by Monday afternoon.
* At 17 feet...Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding 
  occurs in the woodlands along the creek in the Piedmont National 
  Wildlife Refuge upstream and downstream from the gage on Round 
  Oak-Juliette Road. The rapid flow almost doubles in volume compared
  to the flood stage level.


&&

LAT...LON 3316 8377 3317 8366 3310 8368 3303 8368
      3302 8372 3310 8376             

$$
5 follow-up statements
324 
WGUS82 KFFC 200822
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
422 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Turkey Creek near Byromville affecting Dooly County 

  Falling Creek near East Juliette  affecting Jones County 

  Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville affecting Pulaski County 

 
GAC093-202222-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0305.200420T1739Z-200421T1435Z/
/BVLG1.1.ER.200420T1739Z.200420T2100Z.200421T0835Z.NO/
422 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Turkey Creek near Byromville.
* From this afternoon until Tuesday morning.
* At 345 AM Monday the stage was 8.2 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 10.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage this afternoon and continue 
  to rise to near 10.7 feet late this afternoon.The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early Tuesday.
* At 11.0 feet...Minor flooding expands into the woodland areas 
  upstream and downstream from the stream gage on Georgia Highway 90.
  Larger portions of creek access roads will flood.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3229 8385 3225 8380 3218 8387 3210 8391
      3210 8398 3220 8394             

$$

GAC169-202221-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0307.200420T0857Z-200421T0226Z/
/FALG1.1.ER.200420T0857Z.200420T1500Z.200420T2026Z.NO/
422 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Falling Creek near East Juliette .
* From early this morning until this evening.
* At 345 AM Monday the stage was 12.1 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage early this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 16.2 feet by late this morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
* At 17.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding 
  occurs in the woodlands along the creek in the Piedmont National 
  Wildlife Refuge upstream and downstream from the gage on Round 
  Oak-Juliette Road. The rapid flow almost doubles in volume compared
  to the flood stage level.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8377 3317 8366 3310 8368 3303 8368
      3302 8372 3310 8376             

$$

GAC235-202221-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0306.200420T2226Z-200422T0832Z/
/TSCG1.1.ER.200420T2226Z.200421T1000Z.200422T0232Z.NO/
422 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Tuesday night...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville.
* From this evening until late Tuesday night.
* At 345 AM Monday the stage was 6.0 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11.0 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by this evening and continue to 
  rise to near 12.1 feet by Tuesday morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by Tuesday late evening.
* At 13.0 feet...Minor flooding continues in the woodlands...fields 
  and pastures upstream and downstream from the gage on Georgia 
  Highways 257 and 27.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8361 3224 8342 3218 8342 3225 8364


$$
787 
WGUS82 KFFC 201001
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
601 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Ocmulgee River near Macon affecting Bibb...Houston...Jones...
  Monroe and Twiggs Counties 

 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Falling Creek near East Juliette  affecting Jones County 


GAC169-210001-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0307.000000T0000Z-200421T0226Z/
/FALG1.1.ER.200420T0933Z.200420T1500Z.200420T2026Z.NO/
601 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Falling Creek near East Juliette .
* Until this evening.
* At 545 AM Monday the stage was 13.1 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 13.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 16.2 feet by late this 
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage late this afternoon.
* At 17.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins. Significant flooding 
  occurs in the woodlands along the creek in the Piedmont National 
  Wildlife Refuge upstream and downstream from the gage on Round 
  Oak-Juliette Road. The rapid flow almost doubles in volume compared
  to the flood stage level.
 

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8377 3317 8366 3310 8368 3303 8368
      3302 8372 3310 8376             

$$

GAC021-153-169-207-289-210001-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0304.200420T0959Z-000000T0000Z/
/MACG1.1.ER.200420T0927Z.200423T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
601 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Ocmulgee River near Macon.
* Until further notice.
* At 530 AM Monday the stage was 18.0 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring.
* Flood stage is 18.0 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 25.6 feet by early Thursday 
  morning then begin falling.
* At 26.0 feet...Moderate flooding begins on the Macon GreenWay 
  Ocmulgee Heritage Trail north of the Martin Luther King Boulevard 
  bridge with some areas under 6 feet of water. Backyards of a few 
  homes on the left bank near Glenridge Drive will be flooded. 
  Portions of the Southern Railroad tracks around Mead Road will 
  become inundated. Large portions of agricultural lands just east 
  and south of Macon will be under 1 to 8 feet of water.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3290 8372 3293 8367 3282 8356 3266 8353
      3263 8359 3274 8363             

$$
928 
WGUS82 KFFC 201548
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1148 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Falling Creek near East Juliette  affecting Jones County 

  Ocmulgee River near Macon affecting Bibb...Houston...Jones...
  Monroe and Twiggs Counties 

  Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville affecting Pulaski County 

 
GAC169-210326-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0307.000000T0000Z-200421T0326Z/
/FALG1.1.ER.200420T0933Z.200420T1700Z.200420T2126Z.NO/
1148 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until this evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Falling Creek near East Juliette .
* Until this evening.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 14.8 feet and slowly rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 15.1 feet by Monday 
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage late Monday 
  afternoon.
* At 15 feet, Minor flooding expands into the woodlands and natural
  flood plain along the creek in the Piedmont National Wildlife 
  Refuge upstream and downstream from the gage on Round Oak-Juliette
  Road. The rapid flow increases around 50 percent from the flood 
  stage level.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8377 3317 8366 3310 8368 3303 8368
      3302 8372 3310 8376             

$$

GAC021-153-169-207-289-210546-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0304.000000T0000Z-200425T1630Z/
/MACG1.1.ER.200420T0927Z.200422T1800Z.200425T1030Z.NO/
1148 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday afternoon...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Ocmulgee River near Macon.
* Until Saturday afternoon.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 20.1 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 24.4 feet by Wednesday early
  afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage Saturday morning.
* At 25 feet, minor flooding expands further into the woodlands 
  and over the Macon GreenWay Ocmulgee Heritage Trail north of the 
  Martin Luther King Boulevard bridge. The flood waters will be up to
  5 feet deep on portions of the trail. Large portions of 
  agricultural lands just east and south of Macon will be under 1 to 
  7 feet of water.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3290 8372 3293 8367 3282 8356 3266 8353
      3263 8359 3274 8363             

$$

GAC235-210546-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0306.200421T0552Z-200421T2308Z/
/TSCG1.1.ER.200421T0552Z.200421T1000Z.200421T1708Z.NO/
1148 AM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville.
* From after midnight Tuesday until Tuesday evening.
* At 10 AM Monday the stage was 8.4 feet and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by after midnight Tuesday and 
  continue to rise to near 11 feet by Tuesday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Tuesday early afternoon.
* At 13 feet, minor flooding continues in the woodlands, fields 
  and pastures upstream and downstream from the gage on Georgia 
  Highways 257 and 27.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8361 3224 8342 3218 8342 3225 8364


$$
420 
WGUS82 KFFC 202054
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
454 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Ocmulgee River near Macon affecting Bibb...Houston...Jones...
  Monroe and Twiggs Counties 

  Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville affecting Pulaski County 

 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
  Falling Creek near East Juliette  affecting Jones County 


GAC169-210326-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0307.000000T0000Z-200421T0326Z/
/FALG1.1.ER.200420T0933Z.200420T1645Z.200420T2126Z.NO/
454 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Falling Creek near East Juliette.
* Until this evening.
* At 3 PM Monday the stage was 14.5 feet...and falling.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* The river will continue to fall to below flood stage by late this 
  afternoon.
* At 15 feet...Minor flooding expands into the woodlands and 
  natural flood plain along the creek in the Piedmont National 
  Wildlife Refuge upstream and downstream from the gage on Round 
  Oak-Juliette Road. The rapid flow increases around 50 percent from 
  the flood stage level.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8377 3317 8366 3310 8368 3303 8368
      3302 8372 3310 8376             

$$

GAC021-153-169-207-289-211053-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0304.000000T0000Z-200425T1030Z/
/MACG1.1.ER.200420T0927Z.200422T0600Z.200425T0430Z.NO/
454 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Ocmulgee River near Macon.
* Until Saturday morning.
* At 4 PM Monday the stage was 20.9 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring and is forecast to continue.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising to near 23 feet by early Wednesday
  morning. The river will fall below flood stage early Saturday 
  morning.
* At 23 feet...Minor flooding continues to expand. Large portions 
  of the Macon GreenWay Ocmulgee Heritage Trail floods north of the 
  Martin Luther King Boulevard bridge. The flood waters will be up to
  3 feet deep on portions of the trail. Large portions of 
  agricultural lands east of Macon and well downstream will be under 
  1 to 5 feet of water.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3290 8372 3293 8367 3282 8356 3266 8353
      3263 8359 3274 8363             

$$

GAC235-211053-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0306.200421T0130Z-200422T0230Z/
/TSCG1.1.ER.200421T0130Z.200421T1400Z.200421T2030Z.NO/
454 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Tuesday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville.
* From tonight until Tuesday evening.
* At 3 PM Monday the stage was 9.9 feet...and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* Forecast to rise above flood stage by tonight and continue to rise 
  to near 11.2 feet by tomorrow late morning. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by tomorrow afternoon.
* At 11 feet...Flood stage is reached. Minor flooding of woodlands...fields 
  and pastures begin upstream and downstream from the gage on Georgia 
  Highways 257 and 27.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8361 3224 8342 3218 8342 3225 8364


$$
119 
WGUS82 KFFC 210131
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
931 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  Falling Creek near East Juliette  affecting Jones County

  Oconee River near Dublin affecting Johnson...Laurens...Washington 
  and Wilkinson Counties

 
...The Flood Warning continues for the following rivers in Georgia...
 
  Ocmulgee River near Macon affecting Bibb...Houston...Jones...
  Monroe and Twiggs Counties 

  Oconee River near Oconee affecting Johnson...Washington and 
  Wilkinson Counties 

  Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville affecting Pulaski County 


GAC169-210201-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0307.000000T0000Z-200421T0326Z/
/FALG1.1.ER.200420T0933Z.200420T1645Z.200421T0027Z.NO/
931 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Falling Creek near East Juliette .
* This takes effect immediately.
* Until this evening.
* At 845 PM Monday the stage was 12.9 feet, and falling.
* Flood stage is 13 feet.
* The creek will continue to fall.
* Between 11 and 13 feet, bankfull conditions occur along the creek 
  upstream and downstream from the gage on Round Oak-Juliette Road. 
  

&&

LAT...LON 3316 8377 3317 8366 3310 8368 3303 8368
      3302 8372 3310 8376             

$$

GAC021-153-169-207-289-211530-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0304.000000T0000Z-200425T1000Z/
/MACG1.1.ER.200420T0927Z.200422T1200Z.200425T0400Z.NO/
931 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Ocmulgee River near Macon.
* Until Saturday morning.
* At 830 PM Monday the stage was 21.3 feet, and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring, and minor flooding is forecast to 
  continue.
* Flood stage is 18 feet.
* The river will continue rising, reaching near 23 feet by 
  Wednesday morning. The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Saturday morning.
* At 21 feet, minor flooding expands with an increasing amount of the 
  Macon GreenWay Ocmulgee Heritage Trail flooded north of the Martin 
  Luther King Boulevard bridge and flood waters will be up to two feet 
  deep on portions of the trail and both banks overflow upstream from 
  the bridge. Large portions of agricultural lands east of Macon and 
  well downstream will be under 1 to 4 feet of water.

  At 23 feet, minor flooding continues to expand with a large portion 
  of the Macon GreenWay Ocmulgee Heritage Trail flooded north of the 
  Martin Luther King Boulevard bridge and flood waters will be up to 3 
  feet deep on portions of the trail. Large portions of agricultural 
  lands east of Macon and well downstream will be under 1 to 5 feet of 
  water.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3290 8372 3293 8367 3282 8356 3266 8353
      3263 8359 3274 8363             

$$

GAC235-211530-
/O.CON.KFFC.FL.W.0306.000000T0000Z-200421T1600Z/
/TSCG1.1.ER.200420T2335Z.200421T0700Z.200421T1000Z.NO/
931 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Tucsawhatchee Creek near Hawkinsville.
* Until Tuesday afternoon.
* At 845 PM Monday the stage was 11.2 feet, and rising.
* Minor flooding is occurring, and minor flooding is forecast to 
  continue.
* Flood stage is 11 feet.
* The creek will continue rising, reaching near 11.4 feet after 
  midnight early Tuesday morning. The river will fall below flood 
  stage later Tuesday morning.
* At 11 feet, minor flooding of woodlands, fields and pastures occurs 
  upstream and downstream from the gage on Georgia Highways 257 and 
  27.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3231 8361 3224 8342 3218 8342 3225 8364


$$

GAC167-303-319-211530-
/O.EXT.KFFC.FL.W.0302.200421T0808Z-000000T0000Z/
/OCNG1.1.ER.200421T0808Z.200423T0600Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
931 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until further notice...

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Oconee River near Oconee.
* From early tomorrow until further notice.
* At 915 PM Monday the stage was 13 feet, and rising.
* Minor flooding is forecast to develop.
* Flood stage is 17 feet.
* The river is forecast to rise above flood stage Tuesday morning and 
  continue rising, reaching near 18.9 feet by Thursday morning.
* At 14 feet, bankfull conditions are reached along the river. The Old 
  Balls Ferry Road boat ramp, just upstream and right bank from the 
  Georgia Highway 57 bridge, will begin to flood.
  
  At 17 feet, minor flooding begins as the water level reaches the top 
  of the Old Balls Ferry Road boat ramp, just upstream and rightbank 
  from the Georgia Highway 57 bridge. Minor flooding of woodlands near 
  the river occurs.

  At 19 feet, the water level begins to flood the dirt parking lot 
  area near the Old Balls Ferry Road boat ramp, just upstream and 
  rightbank from the Georgia Highway 57 bridge. Minor flooding 
  continues and spreads further into the woodlands near the river.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3284 8303 3288 8298 3279 8292 3267 8289
      3265 8298 3278 8300             

$$

GAC167-175-303-319-210201-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0303.000000T0000Z-200421T0131Z/
/DBNG1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
931 PM EDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Oconee River near Dublin.
* This takes effect immediately.
* Until Wednesday December 31.
* At 845 PM Monday the stage was 14.1 feet, and rising.
* Flood stage is 21 feet.
* The river will continue to rise, but is no longer expected to reach 
  flood stage. 
  

&&

LAT...LON 3265 8298 3267 8289 3257 8284 3238 8268
      3236 8277 3254 8293             

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this river flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Atlanta, GA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this river flood warning went out at Apr 19, 9:30 PM EDT, 12 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 19, 9:30 PM EDT, 12 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
930 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

.Update...

No changes at this time. Rain and thunderstorms will continue to
train across much of north and central GA. Strongest storms may
continue across Columbus to Macon area.

41

.Previous...

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Monday Night/...

Warm front and sharp sfc instability gradient continues to remain a
bit farther south and flirting with the southernmost tier of
counties or even just a tier even farther south. Some of the
stronger convective triggering has still been on the northern
elevated CAPE side. An axis of training cells and heavier rain has
set up mainly along and south of a zone near Columbus to Macon and
flash flooding concerns could ramp up shortly given upstream trends
back in AL and fairly good consensus in CAMs. The Flash Flood Watch
continues for the southern majority of the area - see Hydrology
section below for more details.

While parts of north GA transitioned to a lull in precip coverage,
we are still in an open upper wave and could easily fill back in
ahead of main trough axis later tonight. This feature with attendant
sfc low and a strong LLJ kicking in late this evening into the early
morning hours looks to allow for the last one to two rounds of
strong to severe storms even farther north with possible bowing
segments or QLCS anywhere from the Atlanta metro into all of central
GA. SPC has maintained the MDT risk across central GA with a tighter
gradient of Enhanced/Marginal north.

Expect rapidly improving conditions with some enhanced NW gradient
winds in the post frontal regime for Monday. Highs will be mainly
in the low 70s north to mid 70s south and then lows Monday night
generally ranging from the upper 40s to low 50s.

Baker

&&

.LONG TERM /Tuesday through Sunday/...

Dry conditions will prevail at the onset of the long-term forecast
period. A reinforcing dry cold front will push through the area on
Tuesday, bringing breezier conditions during the day and cooler
overnight temperatures. Surface high pressure will gradually shift
eastward through the day Wednesday with one more dry day through
Wednesday night.

By Thursday, the next storm system will be quickly approaching.
While there is fairly good model agreement regarding the general
track of the surface low on Thursday, some discrepancies remain with
the ECMWF favoring a slightly more southerly track across the
Tennessee Valley while the GFS is more northerly across the Ohio
Valley. Convective parameters do favor some severe potential on
Thursday, though questions remain regarding the quality of
instability. Additionally, rainfall totals of 1-2" again look
probable with this system.

Behind this strong midweek system, model discrepancies increase
significantly by late week into next weekend. Given substantial
differences in timing and evolution by this time frame, maintained
a return to chance PoPs by the weekend.

Willis

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
The Flash Flood watch remains in effect generally along and south
of the I-20 corridor through tonight into early Monday. While one
to two and a half inches have fallen already, an additional one to
four inches and locally higher amounts are possible through
tonight. Heavy rainfall will likely lead to localized flooding.
Flooding of low-lying areas, creeks and streams can be expected
with additional larger river rises anticipated as well, well after
the rain ends.

Baker

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z UPDATE...

Warm front remains across north FL and not expected to push north
until after 06z. The southern taf sites will continue to have more
predominant TSRA coverage into this evening while there is more
uncertainty along the northern sites. Stronger forcing could have
predominant TSRA in the 06-09z across the taf sites. Ceilings are
LIFR/IFR and should remain there until after sunrise...with an
improving trend during the day Monday. Winds should stay east to
southeast 6 to 9 kts through much of the night...then become
northwest with gusts after 12z.

//ATL CONFIDENCE...00Z UPDATE...

Medium on all elements.

41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          54  73  49  74 / 100  80   0   5
Atlanta         56  70  51  73 / 100  60   0   5
Blairsville     50  66  44  67 / 100  70   5  10
Cartersville    53  70  48  74 / 100  50   0   5
Columbus        60  75  53  78 / 100  40   0   5
Gainesville     53  71  50  71 / 100  70   0   5
Macon           59  75  51  78 / 100  80   0   5
Rome            53  71  48  74 / 100  40   0   5
Peachtree City  56  72  49  75 / 100  50   0   5
Vidalia         63  76  56  80 /  90  70  10   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flash Flood Watch through Monday morning for the following
zones: Baldwin...Barrow...Bibb...Bleckley...Butts...Carroll...
Chattahoochee...Clarke...Clayton...Cobb...Coweta...Crawford...
Crisp...DeKalb...Dodge...Dooly...Douglas...Emanuel...Fayette...
Glascock...Greene...Gwinnett...Hancock...Haralson...Harris...
Heard...Henry...Houston...Jasper...Jefferson...Johnson...Jones...
Lamar...Laurens...Macon...Marion...Meriwether...Monroe...
Montgomery...Morgan...Muscogee...Newton...North Fulton...
Oconee...Oglethorpe...Paulding...Peach...Pike...Polk...Pulaski...
Putnam...Rockdale...Schley...South Fulton...Spalding...Stewart...
Sumter...Talbot...Taliaferro...Taylor...Telfair...Toombs...
Treutlen...Troup...Twiggs...Upson...Walton...Warren...
Washington...Webster...Wheeler...Wilcox...Wilkes...Wilkinson.

&&

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Willis
AVIATION...41
Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 19, 4:40 AM EDT, 17 hours 2 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
440 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-201000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
440 AM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and
Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight...

Scattered to numerous severe thunderstorms are expected across
central and portions of north Georgia this afternoon and tonight.
The greatest threat can be expected along and south of I-20 with
Central Georgia most favored for strong, long-track tornadoes
along with damaging winds and large hail.

A flash flood watch is in effect for central and portions
of north Georgia. Heavy rain across the area will likely lead to
localized flooding. Refer to the Flash flood watch / ATLFFAFFC /
for more information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday...

Strong thunderstorms will be possible over portions of east and
central Georgia early Monday.

Another round of potentially strong thunderstorms is expected
across north and central Georgia on Thursday and Thursday night.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is requested for this afternoon and tonight
across central and portions of north Georgia, along and south of I-20.
Please relay any information about observed severe weather to the NWS
while following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

In the hours before

Local storm report, Apr 19, 4:16 PM EDT, 5 hours 26 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
416 PM EDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1127 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 SW ELKO               32.31N  83.72W
04/19/2020                   HOUSTON            GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            NUMEROUS TREES SNAPPED OR UPROOTED ALONG ELKO ROAD,
            JUST SOUTH OF SR 26. POSSIBLE BRIEF TORNADO. TIME
            ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000592

DJN
Special weather statement, Apr 19, 6:42 PM EDT, 3 hours before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
642 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

GAZ078-079-089-192315-
Harris GA-Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
642 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR HARRIS...WESTERN TALBOT AND
NORTHERN MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM EDT...

At 642 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Lake Harding, or 10
miles southeast of Valley...moving northeast at 35 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Hamilton, Manchester, Pine Mountain, Waverly Hall, Upatoi, Goat Rock
Lake, Ellerslie, Flat Rock, F.d. Roosevelt State Park, Green Island
Hills, Cataula, Baughville, Flint Hill, Olive Branch, Box Springs,
Midland, Mountain Hill, Fortson, Mulberry Grove and Whitesville-Pine
Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3286 8475 3284 8470 3285 8459 3253 8461
      3253 8502 3258 8507 3262 8509 3263 8508
      3264 8511 3266 8509 3269 8512 3274 8511
      3276 8514 3278 8512 3281 8517 3283 8517
      3285 8515 3285 8518 3287 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2242Z 242DEG 32KT 3271 8507

WIND...40MPH
Special weather statement, Apr 19, 7:15 PM EDT, 2 hours 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
715 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

GAZ066-067-069-078>081-089>091-192345-
Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Upson GA-Crawford GA-
Troup GA-Meriwether GA-Talbot GA-Muscogee GA-
715 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN CHATTAHOOCHEE...
HARRIS...TAYLOR...NORTHERN MARION...UPSON...CRAWFORD...SOUTHEASTERN
TROUP...SOUTHWESTERN MERIWETHER...TALBOT AND MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL
745 PM EDT...

At 715 PM EDT...a line of strong thunderstorms was extending from
Junction City to Reynolds...and moving northeast at 50 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of these storms include
Columbus, Thomaston, Butler, Hamilton, Roberta, Talbotton,
Manchester, West Point, Pine Mountain, Reynolds, Waverly Hall, Warm
Springs, Woodland, Junction City, Geneva, Bibb City, Upatoi, Lincoln
Park, F.d. Roosevelt State Park and Green Island Hills.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3289 8519 3285 8389 3282 8388 3259 8392
      3253 8405 3251 8405 3251 8411 3248 8414
      3246 8500 3252 8500 3264 8511 3266 8509
      3269 8512 3274 8511 3276 8514 3278 8512
      3281 8517 3285 8515 3286 8519
TIME...MOT...LOC 2315Z 228DEG 45KT 3260 8445 3257 8411

WIND...40MPH
Special weather statement, Apr 19, 8:49 PM EDT, 53 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
849 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

GAZ078>080-089>092-200115-
Schley GA-Chattahoochee GA-Harris GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-Talbot GA-
Muscogee GA-
849 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN SCHLEY...
CHATTAHOOCHEE...SOUTHEASTERN HARRIS...SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR...MARION...
SOUTHWESTERN TALBOT AND MUSCOGEE COUNTIES UNTIL 915 PM EDT...

At 849 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Sand Hill, or 7 miles
southeast of Columbus...moving east at 45 mph.

  HAZARD...Winds up to 40 mph...up to penny sized hail and frequent
           lightning.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Lightning is one of nature's
           leading killers. If you can hear thunder...you are close
           enough to be struck by lightning.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Columbus, Buena Vista, Cusseta, Junction City, Geneva, North Fort
Benning, Bibb City, Upatoi, Fort Benning/lawson Army Air Fld,
Brantley, Laurel Hills, Green Island Hills, Juniper, Vista Terrace,
Columbus Metropolitan Airport, Jamestown/south Fort Benning, Rose
Hill, Oakland, Manta and Zellobee.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. Electrical
appliances should not be used unless in an emergency.

LAT...LON 3259 8506 3267 8440 3248 8434 3233 8437
      3226 8490 3227 8490 3230 8494 3233 8501
      3235 8500 3238 8497 3239 8499 3239 8497
      3241 8498 3243 8496 3244 8497 3245 8500
      3252 8500 3256 8504
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 258DEG 37KT 3242 8486

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...40MPH
Special weather statement, Apr 19, 9:15 PM EDT, 27 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
915 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

GAZ080-091>093-200145-
Macon GA-Schley GA-Taylor GA-Marion GA-
915 PM EDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WESTERN MACON...SCHLEY...
SOUTHWESTERN TAYLOR AND MARION COUNTIES UNTIL 945 PM EDT...

At 915 PM EDT...a strong thunderstorm was over Brantley, or near
Buena Vista...moving east at 40 mph.

  HAZARD...Up to 40 mph wind...frequent cloud to ground lightning
           and heavy rain.

  IMPACT...Expect minor damage to tree limbs and blowing around of
           light...unsecured objects. Heavy rain may cause temporary
           street flooding especially in poor drainage areas.

Some locations in the path of this storm include
Buena Vista, Ellaville, Putnam, Brantley, Murrays Crossroads, Rupert,
Charing, Oakland, Draneville, Zellobee, Mauk, Tazewell, Marion
Estates, Doyle and Walls Crossing.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People outdoors should seek shelter immediately. If you can hear
thunder...you are close enough to be struck by lightning. Motorists
should slow down and be prepared for possible loss of control due to
hydroplaning.

LAT...LON 3221 8460 3223 8461 3223 8466 3227 8466
      3237 8464 3251 8456 3254 8420 3223 8424
      3220 8460
TIME...MOT...LOC 0115Z 264DEG 35KT 3238 8457

WIND...40MPH

The office that day

Everything else NWS Atlanta, GA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Apr 19, 8:14 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningFFCBleckley, Dodge, Laurens, Pulaski, Twiggs, Wilkinson10 hr
Apr 19, 8:49 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCChattahoochee, Marion, Muscogee26 min
Apr 19, 9:01 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCClayton, Fayette, Spalding30 hr
Apr 19, 9:01 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCFayette, Spalding53 hr
Apr 19, 9:01 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCMeriwether, Pike13 hr
Apr 19, 9:01 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCCrawford, Talbot, Taylor, Upson46 hr
Apr 19, 9:01 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCDooly, Macon, Sumter21 days
Apr 19, 9:03 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCDeKalb, Rockdale40 hr
Apr 19, 9:03 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCNewton, Rockdale56 hr
Apr 19, 9:05 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCCarroll, Coweta, Heard19 hr
Apr 19, 9:05 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCChattahoochee, Muscogee54 hr
Apr 19, 9:09 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCBaldwin, Washington, Wilkinson15 hr
Apr 19, 9:09 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCJohnson, Washington, Wilkinson6 days
Apr 19, 9:09 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCJohnson, Laurens, Washington, Wilkinson21 days
Apr 19, 9:15 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCMarion, Schley30 min
Apr 19, 9:17 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCBibb, Houston, Jones, Monroe, Twiggs21 days
Apr 19, 9:31 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCDooly28 hr
Apr 19, 9:37 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCPulaski48 hr
Apr 19, 9:44 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCMacon, Schley31 min
Apr 19, 9:52 PM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCChattahoochee, Marion38 min
Apr 19, 9:56 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCChattahoochee, Marion, Muscogee, Stewart, Webster49 min
Apr 19, 10:49 PM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCForsyth, Fulton11 hr
Apr 20, 12:11 AM EDTFlash Flood WarningFFCEmanuel, Johnson, Laurens, Montgomery, Toombs, Treutlen and 1 more6 hr
Apr 20, 12:51 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCStewart, Webster39 min
Apr 20, 1:00 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCStewart, Webster45 min
Apr 20, 1:30 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCCrisp, Dooly, Sumter60 min
Apr 20, 2:11 AM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningFFCCrisp, Wilcox49 min
Apr 20, 2:58 AM EDTSpecial Weather StatementFFCMontgomery, Telfair, Treutlen, Wheeler32 min
Apr 20, 7:38 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCTroup21 hr
Apr 20, 7:44 AM EDTRiver Flood WarningFFCCoweta, Fayette, Spalding20 hr

Nearby

River Flood Warnings in Georgia, 2020Every river flood warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive; the gauge from the NWS water service and the USGS.