River Flood Warning 201, NWS Atlanta, GA

284 
WGUS82 KFFC 200456
FLSFFC
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Flood Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
1156 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...The Flood Warning is cancelled for the following rivers in 
Georgia...
 
  South River near Snapping Shoals affecting Butts...Henry and 
  Newton Counties

 
GAC035-151-217-200526-
/O.CAN.KFFC.FL.W.0201.000000T0000Z-200220T0456Z/
/SPGG1.1.ER.200219T2230Z.200219T2230Z.000000T0000Z.UU/
1156 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The South River near Snapping Shoals.
* This takes effect immediately.
* At 11 PM Wednesday the stage was 11.3 feet and falling.
* Flood stage is 12 feet.
* The river is expected to continue to fall.
* At 12 feet, flood stage is reached. Minor flooding begins in the
  woodlands and fields along the river upstream and downstream from 
  the gage on Georgia Highway 81. Much further downstream, portions 
  of Lucy Lane and Lunsford Road in north Butts County begin to 
  flood.
  

&&

LAT...LON 3353 8410 3357 8404 3350 8392 3341 8388
      3339 8393 3346 8398             

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
305 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

.SHORT TERM /Tonight through Thursday Night/...

Rain has tapered off a bit today but it will return overnight as
wave along the frontal boundary moves in over the state. The front
is currently stalled across central GA and stretches back across
the gulf coast states and across TX. The next wave is currently
unorganized and developing across Central TX. With the front
staying fairly stationary overnight it will act as a precip train
keeping showers moving into our area from the west for the next 24
to 36 hours. This continued rainfall will also continue to
increase our chances for more river and localized flooding issues
through Friday. Not currently looking to issue a flood watch as we
are only looking at gaining another 1 to 2 inches of precip
across the area. Soils are already saturated but does appear the
area can still handle this next batch of precip. River flooding is
still expected to continue so please stay aware of any warning
that are issued over the next few days.

The next wave along the frontal boundary moves east out of TX
tonight and across the MS river valley Thu morning. It begins to
push into W GA Thu afternoon eventually becoming a closed low as it
exits the GA/SC coast Thu evening. As this wave moves east the main
front begins to push south as a cold high pressure ridge builds
south out of the western Great lake states. This ridge begins to
push a drier/cooler airmass in across GA Thu afternoon.

This cooler air moving in right on the heals of the exiting precip
will cause some issues across N GA Thu afternoon through Friday
morning in the form of Freezing/Frozen precip. With cold air
advection, temperature profiles are supporting a rain/freezing
rain/snow mix or transition to light snow across primarily the
higher elevations of north Georgia by midday Thursday and moving
southward in the north ATL suburbs Thursday evening. Could see mixed
precip as far south as Newnan to Eatonton line but not expecting any
accumulations south of Interstate 20. We have issued a winter
weather advisory for NE GA where we are expecting a mixture of rain
and freezing rain transitioning to snow and rain and finally to all
snow. Total ice accumulations up to a tenth of an inch. Total snow
accumulations of up to one inch except up to two inches in the
highest elevations.

There will be some light accumulations south of the advisory area but
it should not cause any issues.

Temperatures will begin to fall Thu afternoon as the precipitation
begins to move south and east. Friday morning lows ranging from the
20s across north Georgia to the 30s across central portions of the
state. Any lingering wet roadways could thus experience patchy black
ice concerns across north Georgia, particularly on sheltered or
lesser-traveled routes that do not experience drying.

01

&&

.LONG TERM /Friday through Wednesday/...

Same story, different day. Again. Rounds of on and off rain provided
by multiple frontal passages in combination with several upper level
disturbances will move through the area within the long term period.

The long term period begins on Friday with a mid level trough
ejecting the precip and PoPs out of the CWA. Moving into Saturday, a
surface high sinks into the SE with upper level ridging and NW flow
aloft providing the first dry weekend through Sunday. The story
begins to change though late Sunday as the next system over the
Great Plains begins to develop and brings in SW flow to the CWA.
This SW flow will bring increased PoPs to the area on Monday and
Tuesday ahead of an approaching cold front. Although there are
currently significant model discrepancies between the GFS and ECMWF
in regards to next week's system. The GFS is currently hinting at a
deeper digging mid and upper level trough over the Midwest than the
ECMWF, which could bring severe weather to the area on Wednesday.
Regardless, PWATS remain above seasonal normals so another bout of
potential heavy rain is possible.

In terms of climate, high and low temps will start on Friday below
normal before going just below average. As for low temps, Saturday
and Sunday look to be slightly below average before turning to
above/very above average through the rest of the forecast period.

Morgan

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z Update...
VFR ceilings will not last long as MVFR ceilings move back in by
22z. Will see ceilings continue top fall into the IFR range by
06z-08z Thu. ceilings expected to stay in the IFR range through
the end of this TAF set. Winds are blowing out of the NW but they
are expected to turn to the NE by 20-22z. They will continue to
turn to the East overnight. Wind speeds will stay in the 6-12kt
range through the period. Precip expected to move back in over
night with VSBYs diminishing as the precip intensifies.

//ATL Confidence...18Z Update...
Confidence medium to high on all elements

01

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          39  41  30  46 /  80  90  60   0
Atlanta         40  42  30  46 /  90  90  60   5
Blairsville     36  39  22  45 /  60  90  40   0
Cartersville    40  42  26  47 /  90  90  40   0
Columbus        45  49  35  51 /  90  90  60   5
Gainesville     38  40  28  46 /  80  90  60   0
Macon           42  46  34  49 /  90  90  60   5
Rome            41  42  26  46 /  90  90  30   0
Peachtree City  41  44  31  47 /  90  90  60   5
Vidalia         44  48  35  48 /  80  90  80   5

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 5 AM Thursday to 1 AM EST Friday
for the following zones: Dawson...Fannin...Gilmer...Lumpkin...
Pickens...Towns...Union...White.

&&

SHORT TERM...01
LONG TERM....Morgan
AVIATION...01

Hazardous Weather Outlook...Updated
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
456 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

GAZ001>009-011>016-019>025-027-030>039-041>062-066>076-078>086-
089>098-102>113-202000-
Baldwin-Banks-Barrow-Bartow-Bibb-Bleckley-Butts-Carroll-Catoosa-
Chattahoochee-Chattooga-Cherokee-Clarke-Clayton-Cobb-Coweta-
Crawford-Crisp-Dade-Dawson-DeKalb-Dodge-Dooly-Douglas-Emanuel-
Fannin-Fayette-Floyd-Forsyth-Gilmer-Glascock-Gordon-Greene-
Gwinnett-Hall-Hancock-Haralson-Harris-Heard-Henry-Houston-Jackson-
Jasper-Jefferson-Johnson-Jones-Lamar-Laurens-Lumpkin-Macon-
Madison-Marion-Meriwether-Monroe-Montgomery-Morgan-Murray-
Muscogee-Newton-North Fulton-Oconee-Oglethorpe-Paulding-Peach-
Pickens-Pike-Polk-Pulaski-Putnam-Rockdale-Schley-South Fulton-
Spalding-Stewart-Sumter-Talbot-Taliaferro-Taylor-Telfair-Toombs-
Towns-Treutlen-Troup-Twiggs-Union-Upson-Walker-Walton-Warren-
Washington-Webster-Wheeler-White-Whitfield-Wilcox-Wilkes-
Wilkinson-
456 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of North and Central Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Tonight...

Rain will develop and overspread the area once again, late tonight.
In the higher elevations of far north Georgia, there is a chance for
freezing rain toward daybreak with minor ice accumulations possible.
Ongoing river and stream flooding will persist.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday...

A Winter Weather Advisory is in effect from 5 AM Thursday through 1
AM Friday for the mountains of northeast and north central Georgia.

Across parts of north Georgia, a mixture of rain and freezing rain
is expected to transition to mainly snow by Thursday afternoon. Snow
accumulations up to 2 inches are possible. The wintry precipitation
is expected to end during the evening hours Thursday. Late Thursday
night and through mid morning Friday, as temperatures fall at or
below freezing, patchy black ice is possible, especially over
bridges and overpasses, with any residual water on the roads.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

DJN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1211 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      1 SSW LOUISE            33.06N  84.94W
02/18/2020                   TROUP              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN THE 500 BLOCK OF MT ZION
            CHURCH ROAD.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000239

NM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1212 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 AM     FLASH FLOOD      3 SW LAGRANGE           33.01N  85.06W
02/18/2020                   TROUP              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            FLOODING WAS REPORTED IN THE 1000 BLOCK OF SHOREWOOD
            DRIVE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000240

NM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
1215 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0834 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NNW CANNONVILLE       33.01N  85.12W
02/18/2020                   TROUP              GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            AROUND 12 TREES WERE EITHER SNAPPED OR UPROOTED IN THE
            200 BLOCK OF WOODFIELD CIRCLE. A TREE WAS ALSO REPORTED
            ON A HOUSE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000241

NM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
147 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0559 PM     FLOOD            ZEBULON                 33.10N  84.34W
02/18/2020                   PIKE               GA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            ROADS REPORTED CLOSED AROUND PIKE COUNTY DUE TO
            FLOODING.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000242

TV

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
217 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

GAZ001>005-011-012-201000-
Dade-Walker-Catoosa-Whitfield-Murray-Chattooga-Gordon-
217 PM EST Wed Feb 19 2020

...Wintry Mix Possible Thursday Mainly Higher Elevations...

An area of low pressure is expected to develop along the Gulf
Coast and track offshore the Atlantic coast by Thursday afternoon.
This will allow rain initially to develop across the area by
Thursday morning. But as colder air filters into the area between
10am and noon, a transition to a mixture of rain and snow is
possible. During the afternoon hours, this mixture could briefly
change to all snow before quickly ending by mid afternoon.

Accumulations are expected to remain limited with generally a half
inch or less, except up to an inch at the highest elevations of
Dade and Walker counties. Also of concern is the fact that
temperatures will drop very quickly Thursday night into Friday
morning. Any moisture that remains on the roadways during this
timeframe will result in black ice which could create additional
hazardous driving conditions.

Deese

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
508 PM EST WED FEB 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0500 PM     FLOOD            2 NNW ACWORTH           34.09N  84.69W
02/19/2020                   BARTOW             GA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            WATER OVER TANYARD CREEK ROAD FROM LAKE ALLATOONA.

&&

EVENT NUMBER FFC2000243

NLIST