Areal Flood Warning 8, NWS Atlanta, GA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
638 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020

...12Z Aviation Forecast Discussion...

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 230 AM EST Fri Feb 21 2020/

SHORT TERM /Today through Saturday/...

On the whole, things are much quieter this morning as compared to
the last few days. Any significant precipitation has finally come to
an end across the area as low pressure off the Carolina coast
continues to exit eastward.

The primary concern this morning will be the potential for patchy
black ice on a few roadways in north Georgia. At the present time,
temperatures outside of the higher elevations remain largely above
freezing; however, temperatures will continue to gradually drop
through sunrise, particularly for areas with clearing skies in
northwest Georgia and in the north Georgia mountains. As
temperatures reach freezing, road surfaces in these areas that have
any wet patches will have the highest potential for areas of black
ice through mid-morning.

Farther south and into the core of the Atlanta metro, abundant cloud
cover will persist through the morning hours. Additionally, patches
of very light rain showers or drizzle associated with lingering
shallow moisture will remain possible in this area over the next few
hours. While a brief flurry or light rain/snow mix cannot be ruled
out, temperatures are expected to remain a few degrees above
freezing while light precipitation occurs. For this reason, the
black ice potential is lower for these areas as temperatures will
struggle to dip to freezing by sunrise.

Clouds should finally clear through the afternoon for the entire
forecast area as surface high pressure settles southward. Despite
the clearing skies, high temperatures will remain well below normal.
As high pressure migrates overhead, lows Saturday morning will drop
into the 20s areawide under clear skies. Sunny skies will persist on
Saturday, and temperatures will rebound back into the mid 50s.

RW

LONG TERM /Saturday Night through Thursday/...

The more amplified but still progressive upper pattern persists
through the extended forecast period. Next chance for precipitation
enters the region late Sunday night through Monday with a short wave
lifting out of the southern plains into the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys.
Medium-range models show this system filling as it passes to the
north. Good low-level southerly flow ahead of the system and some,
at least marginal, instability for thunder seems likely. A bit of a
break in the precipitation chances Tuesday as the next short wave
digs into the southern plains and the first system exits. Strong
shot of cold air indicated with this next system, however models
also showing fairly limited moisture and PoPs/QPF are somewhat low
right now. Will need to watch the trends with this system for
another chance for some wintry precipitation across at least the far
north late Wednesday into early Thursday.

20

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z Update...
Cigs vary at TAF sites this morning as a strip of lingering MVFR
cigs meanders in the vicinity of ATL. Expect these cigs to
generally improve through 14-15z, though some potential remains
for at least VFR cigs in 040-060 range to persist into early
afternoon. Once cigs scatter, clear skies will prevail
thereafter. Winds will meander near north today, generally NW/NNW
through 14-15z with potential to trend back to NNE through
afternoon at speeds 5-9kts.

//ATL Confidence...12Z Update...
Medium confidence on morning cigs and wind direction today.
High confidence on cigs thereafter.

RW

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Athens          46  28  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
Atlanta         46  29  54  34 /  10   0   0   0
Blairsville     44  23  54  29 /   5   0   0   0
Cartersville    46  25  55  31 /   5   0   0   0
Columbus        50  29  58  34 /  10   0   0   0
Gainesville     46  29  55  32 /  10   0   0   0
Macon           49  27  56  32 /  10   0   0   0
Rome            46  25  55  30 /   5   0   0   0
Peachtree City  47  27  57  32 /  20   0   0   0
Vidalia         48  28  56  33 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.FFC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...RW
LONG TERM....20
AVIATION...RW

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