Severe Thunderstorm Warning 67, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

570 
WWUS54 KEWX 120908
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
408 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

TXC031-171-259-265-120930-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0067.000000T0000Z-200412T0930Z/
Kerr TX-Blanco TX-Gillespie TX-Kendall TX-
408 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 AM CDT
FOR EAST CENTRAL KERR...WEST CENTRAL BLANCO...GILLESPIE AND
NORTHWESTERN KENDALL COUNTIES...

At 407 AM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fredericksburg,
moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Kerrville, Fredericksburg, Stonewall, Luckenbach, Cain City,
Tivydale, Willow City, Rocky Hill, LBJ State Park, Bankersmith, Hye,
Blumenthal, Eckert, Crabapple, Albert, Grapetown, Harper and LBJ
National Historical Park.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 800 AM CDT for south central
Texas.

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3016 9850 3007 9915 3027 9923 3050 9877
      3050 9867
TIME...MOT...LOC 0907Z 248DEG 39KT 3023 9894 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

KCW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1220 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

.AVIATION...
Current storm production has slightly under performed than what high
res guidance has been suggesting all day. However, watching
development begin across the Rio Grande now which is expected to
develop quickly and bring thunder to DRT soon and prevail for the
next few hours (06Z to 10Z). I-35 sites can expect thunder by 07Z or
08Z and currently seeing showers develop over the Coastal Plains and
Escarpment. Strong westerly winds and VFR ceilings will prevail over
all sites behind storm activity with sustained winds near 25 to 30
knots for Sunday. Winds relax late in the TAF period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 937 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020/

UPDATE...
Tornado Watch #102 has been issued for most of south central Texas
until 4 AM Sunday morning. One supercell has already rolled across
Del Rio and continues to move east on Highway 90 near Bracketville.
We received may reports of baseball size hail in Del Rio, with even a
report of softball size hail in Brackettville. This cell was also
tornado warned, but we have not had any confirmation as of yet. We
are noting some additional development to the west of this supercell
and hi-res models continue to show an active night ahead.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 658 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020/

AVIATION...
Ceilings are a mix of VFR and MVFR currently. They will settle at
MVFR heights over the next few hours. We are starting to see
convection develop with the strongest cells west of DRT. Storms will
continue in Mexico and eventually move into the DRT area later this
evening. Some storms could produce wind gusts up to 40 kts.
Convection will spread to the east reaching San Antonio and Austin by
around 07Z. Again strong gusty winds will be possible with the
strongest storms. A cold front will move through from the west late
tonight/early Sunday. Winds will shift to the west or northwest at
DRT by around 08Z and then San Antonio and Austin around 14Z. Winds
behind the front will be gusty possibly up to 30kts or more. The
strong, gusty winds will persist through the day Sunday.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 226 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020/

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night)...

A few light showers have developed in the warm advection pattern
over our area today. There is enough instability for isolated
thunderstorms going into this evening, especially over the Serranias
del Burro that move into our Rio Grande area as indicated by the
last few runs of the TTU-WRF.

The main show remains overnight into early Sunday morning as a
Pacific front, upper level trough, and favorable upper and lower
level jets all come into play. Isolated showers and thunderstorms
will develop along the Pacific front just west of our area this
evening, then evolve into a squall line or line segments across the
Edwards Plateau and Hill Country as the low level jet enhances
inflow early in the overnight. The line or line segments will then
move across the I-35 corridor overnight/early Sunday morning and
exit to our east mid morning as the Pacific front moves away.

Instability and shear parameters suggest there could be isolated
strong to severe storms late this afternoon into early this evening
with more widespread strong to severe storms later this evening
through early Sunday morning. There is a potential for very large
hail greater than 2 inches and wind gusts greater than 70 mph. A
tornado or two is possible should some cells get out ahead of the
line or line segments. SPC has our entire area under at least a
Slight risk of severe storms with most of it under an Enhanced risk.
There is also a possibility of locally heavy rainfall that could
produce urban or small stream flooding.

In the wake of the Pacific frontal passage, a strong pressure
gradient and mixing of winds from aloft, will generate moderate to
strong surface winds. Have continued to use MOS/model blends rather
than NBM winds as the NBM winds are too low. A Wind Advisory may be
needed for westerly winds of 20 to 30 mph, gusting to 35 to 40 mph.
A drier airmass also filters into our area. Humidities fall into the
teens across the Rio Grande Plains into Southern Texas and combined
with the strong winds will maintain a Fire Weather Watch for those
areas as critical meteorological values will be reached. Will let
later shifts upgrade to a Red Flag Warning after evaluation of any
wetting rains as fuel moistures should remain normal to above normal
and ERC values remain below normal.

In the wake of the passage of the upper level trough, a Canadian
cold front moves across our area later Sunday evening into night. A
strong surface pressure gradient will bring another round of
moderate to strong winds, possibly reaching Wind Advisory levels.
This will begin a period of well below normal temperatures.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday)...

A seasonally chilly but otherwise benign couple of days is expected
to start the long term and work week Monday through Wednesday with
lows in the 40s to lower 50s and highs in the 60S to mid 70s,
warmest near the Rio Grande. Warmer air and moisture will gradually
return Thursday and Friday with slight chances for showers and storms
returning to the forecast during the day Friday through the weekend.
At this point there is little to no signal for significant
precipitation during this time period.

Surface high pressure, though centered well to our NNW near Wyoming,
will extend a sfc ridge axis southward through TX Monday.
Northeasterly (eastern CWA) to easterly (western CWA) flow will
prevail for several days. As longwave upper troughing over the north-
central CONUS finally abates into Thursday and yet another closed
upper low enters the West Coast, we'll see low level winds over TX
return to southeasterly/southerly. By midday Friday temperatures
will be back in the 70s and lower 80s and dew points are expected to
reach the low to mid 60s except for across the Hill Country/Edwards
Plateau. Slight chance POPS across primarily the east half of the
forecast area will return Friday through Sunday. Initially, it
appears WAA/isentropic lift will be the primary driver, but (as is
usually the case for days 7 and beyond) model divergence next
weekend leaves some uncertainty in precipitation chances.
Regardless, by Saturday high temperatures should be in the 80s area-
wide once again.

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1234 PM CDT Sat Apr 11 2020/

AVIATION...
Radar showing only very light SHRA and will maintain VCSH for this
afternoon at the I-35 sites. Only subtle changes in timing for
tonight into early Sunday and have maintained VCTS for KDRT this
evening into the overnight and SHRA with TEMPO for TSRA for the I-35
sites overnight into early Sunday morning. MVFR CIGs at KDRT lift and
become SCT VFR early this afternoon. While CIGs lift a little at the
I-35 sites, they remain MVFR, then lower to IFR late this evening.
All sites will see a rapid erosion of clouds to VFR with the passage
of the Pacific front as SHRA/TSRA move off to the east. S to SE winds
7 to 17 KTs prevail, then shift to W to NW at 15 to 25 KTs with gusts
to 25 to 35 KTs with passage of the front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              81  46  63  45  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  81  46  63  44  65 /  30   0   0   0   0
New Braunfels Muni Airport     82  47  65  45  67 /  20   0   0   0   0
Burnet Muni Airport            79  41  60  42  60 /  20   0   0   0   0
Del Rio Intl Airport           86  52  74  49  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
Georgetown Muni Airport        79  44  61  43  63 /  30   0   0   0   0
Hondo Muni Airport             84  49  71  47  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
San Marcos Muni Airport        82  46  65  44  67 /  30   0   0   0   0
La Grange - Fayette Regional   81  48  65  47  69 /  60   0   0   0  -
San Antonio Intl Airport       82  49  67  47  69 /  -    0   0   0   0
Stinson Muni Airport           83  50  69  48  70 /  -    0   0   0   0

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Fire Weather Watch from noon CDT today through this evening for
Atascosa-Dimmit-Frio-Kinney-Maverick-Val Verde-Zavala.

&&

Short-Term/Aviation...EWilliams
Long-Term...Hampshire

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1206 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             1 WNW DEL RIO           29.37N 100.91W
04/11/2020  E4.00 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   PUBLIC

&&

PAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1208 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0825 PM     HAIL             1 S DEL RIO             29.35N 100.90W
04/11/2020  E4.00 INCH       VAL VERDE          TX   PUBLIC

&&

PAY

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

TXZ183-120600-
Val Verde TX-
1217 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL VAL VERDE COUNTY
UNTIL 100 AM CDT...

At 1216 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 9
miles west of Box Canyon, or 15 miles southwest of Comstock, moving
northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Comstock, Box Canyon, Amistad Acres, Devils Shores, Pafford Crossing,
Spur 406 Campground, Devils River State Nat Area Del Norte, Devils
River State Nat Area Big Satan, Rough Canyon Recreation Area, and
Salem Point.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service
office in Austin San Antonio.

&&

LAT...LON 2963 10131 2997 10095 2976 10070 2947 10114
      2952 10117 2953 10126 2957 10124 2962 10125
      2963 10126 2962 10128 2958 10128 2958 10131
TIME...MOT...LOC 0516Z 226DEG 50KT 2949 10131

BF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
116 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

TXZ184-120700-
Edwards TX-
116 AM CDT Sun Apr 12 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTY UNTIL
200 AM CDT...

At 113 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 19
miles northeast of Loma Alta, moving northeast at 40 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Edwards County crossing Hwy 55.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 400 AM CDT for south central
Texas.

LAT...LON 3029 10010 3005 10063 3015 10070 3023 10070
      3029 10060
TIME...MOT...LOC 0613Z 238DEG 33KT 3017 10061

BF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
312 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 AM     HAIL             5 SSE ROCKSPRINGS       29.95N 100.17W
04/12/2020  E0.88 INCH       EDWARDS            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PAY

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
339 AM CDT SUN APR 12 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0215 AM     HAIL             13 SW ROCKSPRINGS       29.91N 100.39W
04/12/2020  E1.00 INCH       EDWARDS            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

&&

PAY