Severe Thunderstorm Warning 52, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
232 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Friday Night)...
Strong to severe storms are firing along a Burnet to Boerne line
early this afternoon and are tracking ENE at 35 mph. With the front
only partially enhancing the storms near and north of Llano, it is
assumed that the explosive storm growth has not fully taken place.
Rapid refresh models have struggle the past couple days on getting
storm initiation points even remotely accurate. Nevertheless we have
active storms, and will a assume watches and warnings are imminent
in the next hour.

Satellite derived layer Pwat imagery seems to suggest this activity
more rooted in a shortwave lifting NE from W Texas toward N-Central
TX, and an 18Z special sounding confirms the front has already
passed the DRT area. So by 4 pm, the front could be more closely
aligned with the lead orientation of the storm clusters. What
appears less likely is that heavy rainfall potential may not need
inclusion for the Hill Country, and some last minute PoP adjustments
may be warranted for the first period.

By 6 pm, the front should have caught up with the leading edge of
storm, and should have moved through most of the Austin/San Antonio
metro areas. Unfortunately some of the best ingredients of high CAPE
and strong shear will be available to potentially bring some of the
stronger hail and high winds to some of our higher population
densities. The storms should accelerate slightly as the front and
storm complex become aligned, so we are not expected much more than
1 inch from some of the stronger storms. East of the metro area this
evening, we may see some of the hail reports decrease while the wind
reports increase.

By 9 pm, the front should have been through all counties with some
residual rain and storm activity lingering into midnight over
southern counties. A tranquil night should resume after midnight
with the north winds cooling us down into the mid 50s to mid 60s.

More and more, models are trending drier in the wake of the this
evening's activity, so PoPs for Friday are cropped way back from the
blended guidance. There remains a potential for strong storms near
the Rio Grande, but surface based deep convection and anything more
than some small hail is not expected. By late Friday afternoon, the
surface winds turn SE over all of South Central TX; thus Friday
night could see better coverage, but perhaps not much of a boost in
storm strength through 12Z Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Thursday)...
The wet weather pattern continues on Saturday as a warm front pushes
into our area from the Gulf waters. Dew point temperatures in the
60s and 70s ahead of a dry-line over the northeast part of Mexico
will set the stage for scattered showers and thunderstorms over most
areas. By Saturday afternoon, the dry-line is forecast to shift to
the east as well as the shower and thunderstorm activity. Some of
these storms could be strong to severe, capable of producing large
hail and damaging wind gusts. In addition, locally heavy rain is
possible.

We may see a break on Saturday afternoon into the early evening
hours across the Rio Grande and Edwards Plateau. However, a second
round of showers and thunderstorms is expected on late Saturday
evening. Some storms could be strong to severe, as an upper level
system over northern Mexico slowly moves to the east and over our
Saturday night into Sunday. Some lingering showers and storms could
affect the northeast part of the Hill Country and areas along
Interstate 35 corridor on Sunday morning, however, weather should
clear from west to east on mid-late Sunday morning. Expect plenty of
sunshine for Sunday afternoon with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

A strong cold front will push across the area on Sunday night into
Monday with lows in the 40s across the Hill Country to the lower 50s
across the Rio Grande. The cooler airmass remains over the area on
Monday with highs in the 60s for most area. Dry weather conditions
persist through the week with a warming trend expected
for the latter part of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              61  72  58  74  63 /  60  -   20  80  80
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  61  72  58  75  63 /  70  10  20  80  80
New Braunfels Muni Airport     63  73  58  76  62 /  70  10  20  80  70
Burnet Muni Airport            58  69  56  72  59 /  40  -   20  70  70
Del Rio Intl Airport           64  78  63  85  60 /  20  20  50  20  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        59  71  56  72  61 /  50  -   20  80  80
Hondo Muni Airport             64  75  60  79  60 /  30  20  40  50  60
San Marcos Muni Airport        61  73  58  75  62 /  70  10  20  80  80
La Grange - Fayette Regional   63  73  58  77  66 /  90  10  20  80  80
San Antonio Intl Airport       64  74  60  77  63 /  60  10  20  60  70
Stinson Muni Airport           65  74  60  78  64 /  60  10  20  50  70

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Oaks
Long-Term...17
Decision Support...Treadway

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
832 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-101345-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
832 AM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Scattered to numerous showers and storms are forecast late this
afternoon and evening along a cold front. There is an Enhanced
Risk of severe storms east of a line Llano to Eagle Pass while a
Slight Risk extends farther west to near Del Rio and Junction. The
most intense severe storms will have the potential to produce large
hail 2 inches in diameter or greater as well as damaging wind gusts
of 70 mph or greater. In addition, isolated pockets of heavy rainfall
are possible, which could lead to flooding. Frequent cloud to ground
lightning is likely in these storms.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Another chance for strong to severe storms is possible Saturday
into Sunday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Please report any severe weather and flooding to the National
Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
230 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

TXZ189-190-206-092015-
Comal TX-Blanco TX-Kendall TX-
230 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN BLANCO...CENTRAL
KENDALL AND NORTHWESTERN COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM CDT...

At 229 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Walnut Grove, or near Boerne, moving east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Boerne, Blanco, Canyon Lake, Walnut Grove, Guadalupe River State
Park, Kendalia, Kreutzberg, Spring Branch, Welfare, Twin Sisters,
Nelson City, Bergheim, Sisterdale, Crown and Honey Creek State
Natural Area.

LAT...LON 2986 9825 2979 9878 2992 9882 3015 9832
TIME...MOT...LOC 1929Z 251DEG 34KT 2988 9874

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
259 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

TXZ173-192>194-092100-
Williamson TX-Bastrop TX-Lee TX-Travis TX-
259 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WILLIAMSON...
NORTHEASTERN TRAVIS...NORTHEASTERN BASTROP AND NORTHWESTERN LEE
COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 259 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Hutto, or near Round Rock, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Austin, Round Rock, Cedar Park, Georgetown, Pflugerville, Taylor,
Elgin, Lexington, Anderson Mill, Windemere, Leander, Hutto, Manor,
Lago Vista, Hudson Bend, Fedor, Tanglewood, Coupland, Mansfield Dam
and Jonestown.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3022 9702 3040 9798 3062 9792 3050 9717
      3046 9715 3056 9697 3055 9694 3054 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 1959Z 269DEG 37KT 3052 9757

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
323 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

TXZ228-092115-
Dimmit TX-
323 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN DIMMIT COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 323 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southwest of Gilson Groves, or 23 miles south of Carrizo
Springs, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Gilson Groves and Catarina.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2847 9964 2825 9943 2820 9955 2820 10001
TIME...MOT...LOC 2023Z 232DEG 20KT 2818 9987

MO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
330 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

TXZ191-092115-
Hays TX-
330 PM CDT Thu Apr 9 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL HAYS COUNTY UNTIL 415 PM
CDT...

At 330 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Wimberley, moving east at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Kyle, Buda, Wimberley, Woodcreek, Mountain City and Hays
City.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3015 9789 2992 9784 2992 9785 2990 9788
      2993 9814 2995 9817 3004 9815
TIME...MOT...LOC 2030Z 265DEG 20KT 2999 9812

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
335 PM CDT THU APR 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0300 PM     HAIL             3 N BOERNE              29.84N 98.73W
04/09/2020  E0.50 INCH       KENDALL            TX   PUBLIC

            TIN ROOF PARTIALLY REMOVED FROM BARN, 4 TO 5
            INCH DIAMETER CEDAR LIMBS BROKEN AND 1/2
            INCH DIAMETER HAIL.

&&

EMP

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
347 PM CDT THU APR 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0235 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 ESE LIBERTY HILL      30.66N 97.89W
04/09/2020  E60 MPH          WILLIAMSON         TX   AMATEUR RADIO

            WINDS ESTIMATED AT 60 MPH WITH SOME POSSIBLE
            TREE DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATE VIA RADAR.

&&

AAT