Severe Thunderstorm Warning 44, NWS Austin/San Antonio, TX

624 
WWUS54 KEWX 032138
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
438 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

TXC021-209-453-032148-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-200403T2230Z/
Hays TX-Travis TX-Bastrop TX-
438 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HAYS...SOUTH
CENTRAL TRAVIS AND WEST CENTRAL BASTROP COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
    
The severe thunderstorm which prompted the warning has moved out of 
the warned area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2978 9787 2976 9792 2983 9792 2986 9789
      2986 9790 2988 9790 2990 9787 2993 9782
      2994 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 273DEG 22KT 2984 9783 

$$

TXC055-187-032230-
/O.CON.KEWX.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-200403T2230Z/
Caldwell TX-Guadalupe TX-
438 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 530 PM CDT
FOR WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL AND NORTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES...

At 438 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located over Martindale, or
7 miles east of San Marcos, moving east at 25 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Trained weather spotters.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Lockhart, Martindale, Staples, San Marcos Regional
Airport, Dale, Maxwell, Reedville and Redwood.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 2978 9787 2976 9792 2983 9792 2986 9789
      2986 9790 2988 9790 2990 9787 2993 9782
      2994 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2138Z 273DEG 22KT 2984 9783 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

02

699 
WWUS54 KEWX 032158
SVSEWX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
458 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

TXC055-187-032208-
/O.CAN.KEWX.SV.W.0044.000000T0000Z-200403T2230Z/
Caldwell TX-Guadalupe TX-
458 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR WEST CENTRAL CALDWELL AND
NORTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.  However heavy rain is
still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2978 9787 2976 9792 2983 9792 2986 9789
      2986 9790 2988 9790 2990 9787 2993 9782
      2994 9753
TIME...MOT...LOC 2155Z 232DEG 18KT 2990 9774 

$$

02

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
157 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
The strong April cold front is entering our northern counties at this
time with the upper 50s already reported in Llano County. Ahead of
this frontal boundary, there have been some breaks in the clouds
which has allowed temperatures to warm up into the lower to middle
70s. Based on the latest SPC mesoanalysis, there is about 1500-2500
J/kg of MLCAPE available with minimal CIN in place. This should
allow for some strong updrafts as storms continue to develop along
and ahead of the front. In addition, deep layer shear is also
sufficient for some rotation which will help increase severe chances
across the area. The main risks for any severe weather will be large
hail and possible wind gusts for any updrafts rooted in the boundary
layer ahead of the cold front. Flow in the 5-7kft range is weak on
the latest Vad-Wind Profiles which should help limit tornadic
potential, but an isolated tornado is possible, especially along the
front.

In addition to the severe chances, heavy rainfall will also be
possible with precipitable water values up to 1.7" which is quite
high for this time of year. One storm out in Val Verde County has
already put down about 2 inches of rain in an hour. In addition,
activity is developing closer to the I35 corridor. With a slower
moving front eventually catching up to the warm-sector precip some
mergers could lead to more efficient rainfall producers. This could
lead to the Flash Flood Warnings later today and tonight. Issued a
Flash Flood Watch for the Central CWA where the threat of flash
flooding would be highest. WPC has upgraded most of the area to a
slight risk on the latest Excessive Rain Outlook and this seems
reasonable. The Coastal Plains counties are still in drought and
therefore, the threat of flash flooding is lower.

Things behind the front tonight should be drier than previously
thought once the front does move south of the region. Lowered the
PoPs a little for the overnight period, but not quite as low as the
new guidance suggests. The main story by morning will be the colder
air behind the front. Currently temperatures, are in the 40s north of
our CWA and we should see temps in the 50s and possibly 40s rather
quickly behind the front. Lowered the temperatures for tonight a bit
further with lows in the morning in the 40s/50s.

A cool day is expected on Saturday with highs only reaching the 50s
for most locations. Another disturbance embedded in the westerly flow
aloft will spark off additional showers and storms behind the front.
This activity is not expected to be severe, but will bring another
round of decent rainfall to the area. There could be some additional
issues of low-lying areas with possible rises in creeks, streams, and
rivers. Rainfall chances will then diminish again Saturday night with
lows back in the 40s/50s.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
Periods of rain are expected through mid-week, but not everyone is
likely to receive rain each day. Highs will warm back up into the 80s
for most locations on Tuesday. The drying trend will be short-lived
with rain chances increasing once again on Thursday and Friday as the
next storm system moves into the area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Austin Camp Mabry              45  54  54  70  63 /  40  70  40  50  40
Austin Bergstrom Intl Airport  46  54  54  71  62 /  50  70  40  50  40
New Braunfels Muni Airport     49  55  55  71  62 /  60  80  40  50  30
Burnet Muni Airport            43  51  51  67  60 /  40  70  30  50  30
Del Rio Intl Airport           55  60  58  75  64 /  60  70  20  40  30
Georgetown Muni Airport        44  52  52  70  62 /  40  70  40  50  40
Hondo Muni Airport             50  58  56  73  63 /  60  80  30  50  30
San Marcos Muni Airport        47  54  54  71  62 /  60  70  40  50  30
La Grange - Fayette Regional   49  56  56  75  64 /  80  80  40  50  30
San Antonio Intl Airport       50  58  56  71  64 /  60  80  40  50  30
Stinson Muni Airport           51  59  57  72  64 /  60  80  30  50  30

&&

.EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

Short-Term/Aviation...Hampshire
Long-Term...Hampshire
Decision Support...Platt

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
413 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-040915-
Llano-Burnet-Williamson-Val Verde-Edwards-Real-Kerr-Bandera-
Gillespie-Kendall-Blanco-Hays-Travis-Bastrop-Lee-Kinney-Uvalde-
Medina-Bexar-Comal-Guadalupe-Caldwell-Fayette-Maverick-Zavala-
Frio-Atascosa-Wilson-Karnes-Gonzales-De Witt-Lavaca-Dimmit-
413 AM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for South-Central Texas..

.DAY ONE...Today And Tonight.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected across South
Central Texas this afternoon and evening. A few storms could
become severe, producing large hail and damaging winds gusts. In
addition, some pockets of heavy rainfall are possible, which could
lead to flash flooding.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Additional showers and storms are possible on Saturday. Some
pockets of heavier rainfall could occur Saturday, leading to flash
flooding. The wet and unstable weather pattern continues into next
week, thus the potential for localized flooding may continue.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to relay any reports of severe weather and
flooding to the National Weather Service.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
154 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

TXZ184-032000-
Edwards TX-
154 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN EDWARDS COUNTY UNTIL
300 PM CDT...

At 154 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Rocksprings, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Us-377 Near The Kimble-Edwards County Line.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3029 9976 3028 9976 3003 10027 3013 10044
      3029 10019
TIME...MOT...LOC 1854Z 238DEG 26KT 3012 10030

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
313 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

TXZ191>193-208-032115-
Caldwell TX-Bastrop TX-Hays TX-Travis TX-
313 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN CALDWELL...EAST
CENTRAL HAYS...SOUTHEASTERN TRAVIS AND NORTHWESTERN BASTROP COUNTIES
UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 313 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Niederwald, or 7 miles east of Kyle, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kyle, Buda, Bastrop, Austin Bergstrom Int Airport, Uhland, Mustang
Ridge, Niederwald, Cedar Creek, Wyldwood, Camp Swift, Webberville,
Creedmoor, Phelan, Bastrop State Park, Maha and Mendoza.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2992 9778 3004 9787 3033 9743 3009 9722
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 242DEG 21KT 3000 9776

02

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
313 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

TXZ190-191-206-032115-
Comal TX-Blanco TX-Hays TX-
313 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN HAYS...SOUTHEASTERN
BLANCO AND NORTH CENTRAL COMAL COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 313 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Blanco, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dripping Springs, Wimberley, Blanco, Woodcreek, Bear Creek, Twin
Sisters, Fischer, Henly, Payton, Driftwood, Mount Gainor and Hays
City.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 3017 9791 2993 9792 3000 9846 3003 9849
      3024 9845 3026 9803
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 271DEG 26KT 3012 9838

BMW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
325 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

TXZ219-228-032115-
Frio TX-Dimmit TX-
325 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN DIMMIT AND
SOUTHWESTERN FRIO COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 325 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Las Vegas, or near Big Wells, moving northeast at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dilley, Divot and Las Vegas.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2855 9958 2864 9949 2864 9941 2872 9941
      2881 9932 2865 9906 2864 9939 2849 9940
      2845 9951
TIME...MOT...LOC 2025Z 241DEG 19KT 2853 9951

02

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
417 PM CDT FRI APR 3 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0414 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SSE LUCKENBACH        30.15N 98.74W
04/03/2020                   GILLESPIE          TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            GILLESPIE COUNTY SHERIFF REPORTED WATER OVER
            THE ROAD ALONG RANCH ROAD 1376 NEAR THE
            COUNTY LINE WITH KENDALL. THAT AREA SAW
            ANYWHERE BETWEEN 1.73 TO 2.54 INCHES OF RAIN
            IN 3 HOURS PER THE LCRA HYDROMET.

&&

AAT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
417 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

TXZ191-193-207-208-032200-
Guadalupe TX-Caldwell TX-Bastrop TX-Hays TX-
417 PM CDT Fri Apr 3 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL CALDWELL...SOUTHEASTERN
HAYS AND NORTHERN GUADALUPE COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

At 416 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
San Marcos, moving east at 20 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
San Marcos, Kyle, Lockhart, Martindale, Uhland, Mustang Ridge,
Niederwald, Staples, San Marcos Regional Airport, Maxwell, Reedville,
Redwood, McMahan, Lytton Springs, Dale, St John Colony, Mendoza and
Taylorsville.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 800 PM CDT for
south central Texas.

LAT...LON 2985 9742 2976 9795 2984 9803 2994 9801
      3006 9775 3002 9771 3009 9762
TIME...MOT...LOC 2116Z 249DEG 19KT 2988 9789

02