Special Weather Statement, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
213 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 213 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

Southerly flow through pretty much the entire column has resulted in
a very humid air mass with precipitable water values pushing max
values or at least above the 95th percentile. Breaks in the
clouds earlier in the day resulted in temperatures nearing or
exceeding convective temperatures with CU and showers and storms
quickly developing as a result. With around 1000 to as much as
2000 J/kg of CAPE, in this environment, showers and storms will
become more widespread through the afternoon across mainly eastern
KS and western MO. While each cell will be relatively short-lived
in any given location, each cell will be very efficient in its
rainfall and any area that sees multiple cells could quickly pile
up the rainfall with pockets of 1 to 3 inch rainfalls likely. Will
keep the flash flood watch going in its current configuration as
a result. The threat of severe weather looks low but really can't
be ruled out at this time. The wave to our west is enhancing the
shear in the area which would lead better storm organization.
Also, with no real surface focus and cells developing
simultaneously, there's a number of mergers going on and this
should limit storm organization. With low LCLs in the relatively
stronger shear can't rule out a brief tornado but overall, hail
and gusty winds look like the main threat, in addition to the
heavy rain threat.

There will be drop off in activity tonight as this initial wave
moves away. But another wave will move northward, likely after
midnight, and spread more widespread showers and embedded
thunderstorms to eastern KS and western MO through the tomorrow
morning. With a similar moisture profile, storms could again
produce locally heavy rainfall across eastern KS and western MO.
Instability will be weaker so not expecting severe weather.

The upper wave responsible for this mess will cutoff to our
southwest. As a result we'll see continued chances for precipitation
through at least Thursday/ Thursday night. Near to below normal
temperatures are also expected in this pattern. The weather should
begin to quiet down for the weekend as the low moves away from the
area and an upper ridge builds eastward into the middle of the
country.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday Afternoon)
Issued at 1209 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

Showers and storms are beginning to develop to the southwest of
the terminals and should increase in coverage as they build north
and east. Have maintained the TSRA group for this afternoon as a
result. Additionally, ceilings should trend to IFR tonight in the
vicinity of a front that will be in the area. Another round of
showers and storms looks possible tomorrow morning. Instability
looks weaker so have just mentioned VCTS with a SHRA group.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for KSZ025-057-060-
     102>105.

MO...Flash Flood Watch through Tuesday evening for MOZ001>008-011>016-
     020>024-028>031-037-038-043-044-053-054.

&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
500 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
500 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected today into tonight. A
couple strong storms are possible this afternoon along with the
potential for heavy rainfall.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

On and off storm chances continue through Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
428 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

MOZ016-017-024-025-252215-
Macon MO-Adair MO-Linn MO-Sullivan MO-
428 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAIR...NORTHEASTERN LINN...
SOUTHEASTERN SULLIVAN AND MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 515 PM CDT...

At 428 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Bucklin to 8 miles north of
Callao to near Macon. Movement was north at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Kirksville, Macon, La Plata, Bevier, Novinger, Atlanta, Callao,
Greencastle, Brashear, New Cambria, Gibbs, Millard, Elmer, Ethel,
South Gifford, Kirksville Regional, New Boston, Excello, Winigan and
Green Castle.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3960 9243 3976 9272 3988 9303 4032 9288
      4028 9246 4021 9234 3995 9235 3995 9229
      3979 9229
TIME...MOT...LOC 2128Z 202DEG 32KT 3991 9294 3988 9268 3972 9242

Barham

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
444 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0230 PM     TORNADO          2 NE RUSHVILLE          39.61N 94.99W
05/25/2020                   BUCHANAN           MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

            DELAYED REPORT. NWS EMPLOYEE SAW TORNADO
            SEVERAL MILES NORTH OF THEIR LOCATION. THEY
            NOTED THE TIME AND LOCATION WAS ESTIMATED BY
            RADAR. THE TORNADO LIKELY WAS BRIEF.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
453 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0436 PM     TSTM WND DMG     5 NW LAREDO             40.08N 93.51W
05/25/2020                   GRUNDY             MO   AMATEUR RADIO

            2 TO 3 INCH TREE LIMBS DOWN. REPORTED BY
            AMATEUR RADIO OPERATOR THROUGH EMERGENCY
            MANAGER.

&&

CDB

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
510 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

MOZ008-017-025-252315-
Schuyler MO-Macon MO-Adair MO-
510 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR ADAIR...SCHUYLER AND NORTH
CENTRAL MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM CDT...

At 510 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
La Plata, moving north at 35 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kirksville, La Plata, Lancaster, Queen City, Greentop, Downing,
Brashear, Glenwood, Gibbs, Millard and Kirksville Regional.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4001 9234 4003 9269 4039 9269 4039 9267
      4040 9268 4041 9267 4042 9269 4049 9269
      4052 9267 4053 9269 4059 9269 4060 9235
TIME...MOT...LOC 2210Z 192DEG 30KT 4008 9256

Barham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
515 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

MOZ023-024-031-038-039-252300-
Carroll MO-Saline MO-Lafayette MO-Livingston MO-Linn MO-
515 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN LINN...CARROLL...
WEST CENTRAL SALINE...NORTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE AND SOUTHERN LIVINGSTON
COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 515 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Waverly, or 11 miles south of Carrollton, moving north at 55 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Carrollton, Waverly, Norborne, Hale, Bosworth, Utica, Blackburn,
Wakenda, Bogard, Tina, Ludlow, Dover, Mooresville, Mount Leonard,
Grand Pass, Avalon and Dawn.

LAT...LON 3910 9340 3912 9377 3921 9377 3921 9376
      3975 9375 3975 9328
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 186DEG 46KT 3920 9355

Barham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
521 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

MOZ007-016-252300-
Putnam MO-Sullivan MO-
521 PM CDT Mon May 25 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PUTNAM AND NORTHEASTERN
SULLIVAN COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 521 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Unionville, moving north at 30 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Unionville and Lemons.

LAT...LON 4036 9280 4036 9307 4058 9308 4059 9307
      4059 9278
TIME...MOT...LOC 2221Z 177DEG 28KT 4041 9293

Barham