River Flood Warning 74, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
612 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 342 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

Message of the Day: Isolated to scattered storms ongoing early this
morning in the western half of the forecast area. Main concern
with this activity is moderate to heavy rain which could lead to flash
flooding this morning in far northeast KS/northwest MO. Another
round of scattered storms are expected this afternoon and evening
and a few could become strong to severe. The main concern is
winds up to 60 mph, but can't completely rule out a brief tornado.

A large area of showers and storms has been sitting over north-
central KS/south-central NE overnight where the surface low and LLJ
are located. An arm of convection has stretched east into our far
western counties though thanks to a warm front lifting north and the
LLJ strengthening and nosing into our area. These features have
also helped more isolated storms develop along I-35. This activity
is expected to continue moving north-northeast with the overall
system. This has pushed portions of the large area of showers and
storms to our west into northeast KS and northwest MO. PWATs are
around 1.5 inches in this area, which is above normal, so some
flash flooding will be possible. Therefore, have kept the flash
flood watch in effect through 10 AM. As for severe chances, a
storm could become strong producing gusty winds and small hail,
but overall there isn't much CAPE or shear to work with this
morning.

The area should be mostly dry for the late morning hours, but this
afternoon, the surface low and attendant cold front will move
into the area, providing another chance for storms. Scattered
storms are expected for the afternoon and evening along and ahead
of the cold front. A few strong to severe storms are possible, but
our instability won't be quite like yesterday. CAPE will be
between 1000- 1500 J/kg with limited deep layer shear around 25-30
kts. Mid- level lapse rates will be weak, so large hail is not a
concern today. Therefore, wind gusts up to 60 mph will be the main
concern, but can't completely rule out a brief tornado. A slight
backing in the surface winds will exist, with 0-1 km shear between
20-25 kt, which may be enough for a brief spin up.

The pattern will stay active through the work week as the upper
level trough over the plains breaks off from the main flow
tomorrow, becomes closed and slowly moves east through the
southern plains. This will stall today's cold front in our region
as well. These features and their little movement will keep on and
off scattered storm chances in our area tomorrow through Friday.
The southerly surface flow will not only continue advecting
moisture into the area, but also seasonal temperatures. Highs will
be in the mid to upper 70s, with lows in the 60s.

The pattern begins to change Friday, as high pressure and upper
level ridging finally moves into the region. This should make for a
dry weekend with temperatures in the 70s.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday Morning)
Issued at 612 AM CDT MON MAY 25 2020

Showers and storms currently in northwest MO will continue moving
north and out of the area within the next couple of hours. The
area should then stay mostly dry until the early afternoon, when
scattered storms develop. Storms will move to the northeast with
coverage decreasing after sunset. A cold front will reach the
MO/KS border late tonight, shifting winds to the northwest. It
will also bring in MVFR and IFR ceilings. Finally, another round
of storms is expected to move into the area along the MO/KS border
after midnight as the LLJ strengthens.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for KSZ025-102.

MO...Flash Flood Watch until 10 AM CDT this morning for MOZ001>004-
     011-012.

&&

Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...Atkins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
500 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-261000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
500 AM CDT Mon May 25 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Several rounds of thunderstorms are expected today into tonight. A
couple strong storms are possible this afternoon along with the
potential for heavy rainfall.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

On and off storm chances continue through Thursday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo