Severe Thunderstorm Warning 8, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1202 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 227 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2020

The forecast focus is for strong to severe thunderstorms tonight
through Friday morning. And another round of strong to severe
thunderstorms Friday evening through Saturday morning. Then gusty
winds on Saturday.

Key Messages...

1. Strong to severe thunderstorms expected from 10 PM through
tomorrow morning hail up to the size of half dollars (1.5") will
be main threat mainly along and south of the Missouri River.
Localized heavy rain may lead to isolated flash flooding.

2. Another round of strong to severe thunderstorms expected from
Friday evening through Saturday morning large hail, damaging winds,
and an isolated tornado are possible mainly across eastern KS/
western MO including the Metro area. Localized heavy rain may lead
to isolated flash flooding.

3. Strong winds behind cold front on Saturday.

Discussion...

At the surface a quasi-stationary frontal system is draped across
southern Kansas into Missouri near the Missouri River. The upper
levels feature a low over the SW US and broad ridging across the
Midwest with southwesterly flow over the Plains. Satellite showing
clouds north of Missouri River with clearing to the south along the
frontal boundary. Tonight a LLJ will develop and nose into southern
KS over-riding the frontal boundary. This will allow elevated
convection to develop which will be capable of producing large hail.
As, the overnight progresses the LLJ will shift east nosing into the
local area near midnight. Steep mid level lapse rates and modest
instability between 500-1000 J/Kg MUCAPE across the southern CWA
will allow the chance for a few severe storms capable of large hail
possible along and south of the Missouri River. Storms will weaken
but will continue through Friday morning as the LLJ weakens. Friday
it will be mostly dry as the warm front lifts to the north in
response to upper level low pushing towards Plains, however a few
showers are possible through the afternoon hours mainly across
northern Missouri.

Friday evening and Saturday morning another round of strong to
severe storms with large hail, damaging winds, and an isolated
tornado possible mainly across eastern Kansas and western Missouri
including the Metro area. LLJ will crank up again intersecting the
warm front in northern Missouri while the upper level trough to west
will create a surface low across northern Kansas with a couple of
storms forming near dryline in Kansas as it pushes east Friday
evening and Saturday morning. MUCAPE will approach 1500-2000 J/kg
and effective shear of 40 to 50 knots. Storms that form in warm
sector will likely be near surface based and discrete supercells.
The storms farther north near warm front will be elevated and more
numerous in coverage. Saturday morning dryline will push east and
storms will move out of the area. Winds will be strong from
southwest eventually turning west to northwest, wind advisories are
possible on Saturday.

Sunday and Monday will be dry with temperatures above normal. Next
chance of precipitation possible Monday evening as the next system
approaches.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Friday Night)
Issued at 1202 AM CDT THU MAR 26 2020

A line of storms has developed along the I-70 corridor, impacting
or about to impact the KC terminals. This line of storms will move
east along I-70, eventually moving out of the area around 09Z-10Z.
MVFR/IFR ceilings will start to develop north of the MO River
within the next couple of hours, and will eventually move south
behind the storms. The entire area is expected to under IFR
ceilings around dawn, with some lower visibilities. Patchy drizzle
is possible during the morning hours as well. Conditions will
gradually improve up to about HWY 36 during the day tomorrow as
the surface low and warm front lift north. Storm chances will
start to increase at the tail end of the TAF period as the main
low pressure system moves through the area.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Christensen
Aviation...Atkins

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
448 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-271000-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
448 AM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Severe storms are possible tonight mainly along and south of Highway
 50.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

 Another round of severe storms is possible Friday evening in
 portions of southeast Kansas and west central Missouri.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1040 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

KSZ104-105-270415-
Johnson KS-Wyandotte KS-
1040 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN WYANDOTTE AND JOHNSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1115 PM CDT...

At 1040 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Vinland, or near Baldwin City, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Overland Park, Olathe, Shawnee, Lenexa, Leawood, Prairie Village,
Gardner, Merriam, Mission, De Soto, Spring Hill, Edwardsville,
Fairway, Mission Hills, Edgerton, Westwood, Lake Quivira, Kansas City
Kansas, Kansas City and Westwood Hills.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri near mile marker 0.
 Interstate 70 in Kansas between mile markers 417 and 423.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 202 and 234.
 Interstate 635 between mile markers 0 and 5.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 0 and 9, and between mile
markers 76 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
northeastern and east central Kansas...and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3896 9505 3899 9498 3898 9495 3900 9493
      3899 9492 3898 9492 3902 9491 3916 9459
      3911 9461 3875 9461 3874 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0340Z 242DEG 43KT 3884 9510

Barham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1139 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

MOZ037-038-043-044-270530-
Cass MO-Johnson MO-Lafayette MO-Jackson MO-
1139 PM CDT Thu Mar 26 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTH CENTRAL CASS...SOUTHWESTERN
LAFAYETTE...SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND NORTHWESTERN JOHNSON COUNTIES
UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1139 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Lake Lotawana, moving northeast at 50 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Lee's Summit, Blue Springs, Raymore, Grain Valley, Pleasant Hill, Oak
Grove, Odessa, Greenwood, Lake Lotawana, Lake Winnebago, Lone Jack,
Baldwin Park, Lake Lafayette, Bates City, Unity Village and Tarsney
Lakes.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 24 and 43.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 9 and 10.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3875 9436 3890 9448 3915 9393 3893 9381
TIME...MOT...LOC 0439Z 241DEG 43KT 3887 9427

Barham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1201 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

KSZ057-105-MOZ037-043-270545-
Johnson KS-Miami KS-Cass MO-Jackson MO-
1201 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN MIAMI...JOHNSON...
NORTHWESTERN CASS AND SOUTHWESTERN JACKSON COUNTIES UNTIL 1245 AM
CDT...

At 1200 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Edgerton, moving east at 60 mph.

Half inch hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Kansas City, Overland Park, Olathe, Lee's Summit, Blue Springs,
Lenexa, Leawood, Raytown, Grandview, Belton, Prairie Village,
Raymore, Gardner, Pleasant Hill, Spring Hill, Greenwood, Peculiar,
Lake Lotawana, Edgerton and Lake Winnebago.

This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 20 and 22.
 Interstate 35 in Kansas between mile markers 200 and 224.
 Interstate 470 between mile markers 0 and 15.
 Interstate 435 between mile markers 0 and 2, and between mile
markers 67 and 83.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
east central Kansas...and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3892 9505 3904 9424 3872 9423 3867 9506
TIME...MOT...LOC 0500Z 263DEG 54KT 3878 9504

Barham

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1205 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

MOZ038-039-044-045-270530-
Johnson MO-Saline MO-Lafayette MO-Pettis MO-
1205 AM CDT Fri Mar 27 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN PETTIS...
SOUTHWESTERN SALINE...SOUTHEASTERN LAFAYETTE AND NORTHEASTERN JOHNSON
COUNTIES UNTIL 1230 AM CDT...

At 1205 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles northwest of Warrensburg, moving east at 55 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 30 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Warrensburg, Knob Noster, Concordia, Sweet Springs, La Monte,
Houstonia, Centerview, Emma and Fayetteville.

This includes Interstate 70 in Missouri between mile markers 51 and
69.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 500 AM CDT for
central and west central Missouri.

LAT...LON 3874 9394 3897 9395 3903 9336 3876 9335
TIME...MOT...LOC 0505Z 264DEG 48KT 3887 9380

Barham