Severe Thunderstorm Warning 150, NWS Kansas City, MO

432 
WWUS53 KEAX 090806
SVSEAX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
306 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

MOC003-005-087-147-090816-
/O.EXP.KEAX.SV.W.0150.000000T0000Z-200709T0815Z/
Atchison MO-Holt MO-Nodaway MO-Andrew MO-
306 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR ATCHISON...HOLT...NODAWAY AND
WESTERN ANDREW COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 315 AM CDT...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds are still possible with these thunderstorms.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 AM CDT for
northeastern Kansas...and northwestern Missouri.

LAT...LON 4057 9478 3984 9485 3985 9494 3990 9495
      3987 9513 3990 9514 4001 9532 4004 9542
      4012 9539 4018 9548 4024 9547 4030 9556
      4031 9566 4034 9562 4046 9564 4048 9570
      4054 9565 4056 9568 4052 9575 4058 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 0806Z 286DEG 48KT 4013 9503 3970 9515 3920 9536 

$$

PP

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
232 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 232 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

Message of the Day: Strong to potentially severe MCS expected this
morning across eastern KS and western MO. Damaging winds are the
biggest concern with this MCS.

At 07Z Thursday, A large MCS was tracking southeastward across
north eastern KS and south eastern NE. The southern bowing area,
in east central KS, is feeding into rich PW air with PW values in
the 1.6 to 1.8 inch range. There is a relative minimum in PW
values over eastern KS and northwestern MO. This high PW air is
being reinforced by a low-level jet that is really focused over
central to east central KS, roughly along and west of highway 75.
The strongest MUCAPE is also in axis the generally aligns with the
high PW air and the low-level jet. On the northern end of the
line, a nice bookend vortex formed which led to to a more
eastward movement of that section of the line. But that has
weakened somewhat in the last 30 minutes or so. What does all
this mean for our forecast area? It seems likely that the brunt of
the storms will be to our west while the northern portion of the
looks to impact southeastern NE, northeastern KS and western MO.
This area still has very favorable downdraft CAPE values in excess
of 1100 to 1200 J/kg as well as several thousand J/kg of MUCAPE.
So the western portions of the forecast will have potential for
damaging winds in the early morning hours as the MCS is tracking
through the region.

For this afternoon, with the area being in the wake of the
morning MCS, have made downward adjustments to temperatures and
increased cloud cover through the day. The bulk of this would be
the morning hours but there may be enough cloud cover left in the
afternoon that temperatures may struggle even more. But overall
temperatures in the middle to upper 80s looks reasonable at this
time with perhaps 90 degrees in the urban core of Kansas City.
With less daytime heating there should be less of a chance for
afternoon showers and storms, but will just keep some slight
chance PoPs going in the afternoon.

The heat should return to the area Friday with highs climbing back
into the lower 90s. With fairly high humidity values this should
once again lead to heat indices in the upper 90s to near 100
degrees. For Friday night into Saturday morning, another MCS looks
possible. A shortwave trough will track across the northern Plains
and help trigger thunderstorms in that region. The GFS has this
forming into our next MCS and dives it southward along/east of the
Missouri River. Chance PoPs seems to cover this potential well for
now.

For the rest of the forecast, it continues to look hot and humid
with highs climbing into the mid and upper 90s by the middle of the
week. While the upper ridge doesn't look especially strong, but the
thermal ridge, noted with the 1000-500mb thickness values, nose
right into the area. So for now, mid to upper 90s, look good with
the hottest temperatures in west and southwest. Factor in the
humidity and it looks like heat indices in the 100 to 105 degree
range can be expected.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 120 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

A line of storms is moving southeast through north central KS and
southeastern NE. This line of storms should affect the terminals
of eastern KS and western MO in the 08Z to 12Z time frame as it
tracks to the southeast. Strong, gusty winds, reduced visibility
and ceilings, potentially into the IFR range, can be expected for
periods of time with the line of storms as well as areas behind
the storms. By mid morning, conditions should become VFR as the
effects of the line of storms move away to the south and east.
Winds should be light by late in the morning and through the
remainder of the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
545 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091045-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
545 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms should move into the area later tonight. The better
chance for severe winds should stay west of I-35, but there will
still be a chance for some gusty winds approaching 30 to 50 mph east
of I-35 as well. Heavy rain may bring some isolated flooding to the
area through Thursday morning.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Thunderstorms are expected to linger in the area Thursday and
another round of thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday.
At this time widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo