Severe Thunderstorm Warning 148, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
121 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.Mesoscale Discussion...
Issued at 120 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

A well organized line of thunderstorms is tracking to the
southeast late tonight. The northern portion of this line has
developed a bookend vortex which is helping to push the northern
half of the bowing line more eastward. This puts much of western
and northwestern MO under the threat of damaging winds as the line
moves through. The stronger parameters though remain focused to
our west. Here, an area of rich PW values exists with around 3000
to 4000 J/kg of MUCAPE and the nose of the low-level jet. This
should lead to the southern portion of the line eventually
becoming more dominant with the greatest potential of severe
weather. That said, the entire area is sitting with 1200 J/kg of
downdraft CAPE so damaging winds will be the main hazard with any
section of this MCS.

&&

.Discussion...
Issued at 240 PM CDT WED JUL 8 2020

Message of the Day: The heat continues...Heat indices are expected
to be mostly in the mid to upper 90s today, with some areas reaching
100-105. A couple of isolated pop-up storms are possible this
afternoon, mainly in central and eastern MO. No severe weather is
expected.

It's another hot and humid day thanks to that upper level ridge
still nosing in from the southwest and southerly surface flow.
Temperatures are expected to top out in the low to mid 90s, with
heat indices upper 90s to low 100s. Even though these numbers aren't
initiating heat headlines, caution still needs to be taken if
outside today.

The pattern starts to shift tonight as the upper level ridge
flattens over our area and retreats back to the southwest. This will
allow for a couple of shortwave troughs to round the ridge over our
area, resulting in some storm chances. The first chance is early
tomorrow morning. An MCS is expected to develop in NE tonight and
move southeast into parts of KS and MO. Those in northwest MO and
along the MO/KS border have the best chance of seeing these storms.
They are expected to arrive closer to 3 AM in northwest MO and
closer to 5 AM in the KC Metro. Widespread severe weather is not
expected, but it looks like there will be enough CAPE, shear, and
DCAPE for isolated strong to severe winds to be possible. This storm
system should weaken/move south as the morning progresses, moving
out of our area by late morning. Now, Thursday afternoon is a
tougher one. The first question is can we become unstable,
especially in our western counties where we anticipate morning
convection. The other is where will the weak cold front be in the
afternoon and will there be any residual outflow boundaries at
play. So, while an area of widespread storms isn't expected, there
are some chances for additional storm development Thursday
afternoon. Strong winds and hail are going to be the main concerns
with any storms that develop. Given the storm chances, cold
front, and cloud cover, temperatures and heat indices will be
slightly cooler tomorrow.

Surface high pressure moves into the area Friday, drying us out. It
will provide another uptick in temperatures and heat indices though.
Another shortwave trough and cold front will move through the area
Saturday. This will bring another chance for storms during the day.
Severe weather is not expected right now, but can't rule out a
stronger storm. Temperatures should still be able to warm up into
the low to mid 90s across much of the area before the front moves
through. The front will move through though, allowing for another
temporary temperature dip on Sunday.

It then looks like the heat returns for much of next week, as the
upper level ridge noses back into our area. It is still early,
but we could end up seeing some high temperatures in the upper 90s
for the first time this year. Stay tuned...

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Thursday Night)
Issued at 120 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

A line of storms is moving southeast through north central KS and
southeastern NE. This line of storms should affect the terminals
of eastern KS and western MO in the 08Z to 12Z time frame as it
tracks to the southeast. Strong, gusty winds, reduced visibility
and ceilings, potentially into the IFR range, can be expected for
periods of time with the line of storms as well as areas behind
the storms. By mid morning, conditions should become VFR as the
effects of the line of storms move away to the south and east.
Winds should be light by late in the morning and through the
remainder of the forecast.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Mesoscale...CDB
Discussion...Atkins
Aviation...CDB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
545 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-091045-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
545 AM CDT Wed Jul 8 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 Thunderstorms should move into the area later tonight. The better
chance for severe winds should stay west of I-35, but there will
still be a chance for some gusty winds approaching 30 to 50 mph east
of I-35 as well. Heavy rain may bring some isolated flooding to the
area through Thursday morning.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday

 Thunderstorms are expected to linger in the area Thursday and
another round of thunderstorms will be possible Friday and Saturday.
At this time widespread severe weather is not anticipated.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo