River Flood Warning 163, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
613 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 330 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2020

A near vertically stacked low over western Missouri developed
a mesoscale band of heavy rain that dropped 6 to 8" of rainfall over
Johnson Co MO overnight. This low is just now starting to fill and
slowly drift to the south, providing some relief to that hard hit
region. We may continue to see more flooding in Bates and Henry
Counties in the next few hours as this features pushes south, with 1-
2" per hour rates still occurring. By sunrise the heavier rainfall
should slip just south of our area with light to moderate rain
before finally exiting down towards Springfield by late morning.
Multiple road closures have occurred in that area south of HWY 50
and we'd expected more to pop up once it becomes more light outside.
Anybody traveling south of HWY 50 will need to be prepared to find
alternate routes and remember to turn around don't down, especially
in Johnson(MO) and Henry Counties. Rivers in these areas are also
rising quickly, so people need to use caution near creeks and rivers
today, as they will be above their respective banks in places. By
the afternoon all of the heavy rain will be south of the area, but a
few isolated showers may develop over NE Kansas and NW Missouri as
an area of thicker stratocumulus clouds form up along an area of low
level convergence. These showers will not produce much rainfall, but
may cause brief periods of light to moderate rain before dissipating
with sunset.

Another shortwave trough will approach the area from the north
Saturday evening. This will bring a weak cold front through Sunday
increasing the PoP chances throughout the day. There may be just
enough MLCAPE to produce some scattered thunderstorms during the
afternoon over central MO, but severe weather is not expected. High
pressure will quickly build into the region Monday into Tuesday with
northerly flow at almost all levels. This will bring noticeably
cooler and drier air into the area with highs only in the 70s and
dewpoints in the 50s. The nice fall like weather will not last too
long as ridging and WAA start to build back into the area Wednesday
night. A nocturnal LLJ associated with a warm front will help spark
elevated convection Thursday morning with dewpoints climbing back up
into the 60s by the afternoon with highs returning to the lower 80s.
Models are not all in agreement on how active the warm front will be
as it pushes through with the GFS being the most aggressive leaving
some uncertainty going into the end of the week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Saturday Morning)
Issued at 610 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2020

MVFR ceilings and rain south of the Missouri River will continue
for a few hours before finally moving south of the area by mid
morning. VFR conditions will return to all terminals and remain
that way through the rest of the period with a NNE wind of
5-10kts. Some isolated showers will develop over NW Missouri and
could bring a stray shower near KSTJ in the afternoon, but
lightning will not be a threat. Overnight clouds will clear out
for the most part and winds will shift to the NW and weaken.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Barham
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
513 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-011015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
513 AM CDT Fri Jul 31 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Moderate to heavy rainfall will be tapering off through the morning.
Flooding will continue to be a hazard through the morning and
afternoon given all the rain that has fallen over the past two days.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible on Sunday. No
severe weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
422 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 AM     FLOOD            2 SW DOVER              39.17N 93.72W
07/31/2020                   LAFAYETTE          MO   DEPT OF HIGHWAYS

            MODOT REPORTS HIGHWAY 213 CLOSED AT LITTLE
            TABO CREEK DUE TO FLOODING.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
644 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0615 AM     HEAVY RAIN       3 W CENTERVIEW          38.74N 93.90W
07/31/2020  M8.16 INCH       JOHNSON            MO   NWS EMPLOYEE

&&