River Flood Warning 160, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
649 PM CDT Thu Jul 30 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 315 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2020

A mid to upper level low paired with a couple of surface
boundaries all within the presence of ample moisture has yielded
another active weather day with showers producing moderate to
heavy rain across portions of the region. The heaviest rain is
currently falling across eastern Kansas where 1 to 3 inches of
rain has already fallen and a couple of flash flood warnings are
in effect. Moderate to heavy showers (with a few thunderstorms)
will likely persist through the afternoon and evening hours with
the focus continuing to be across eastern Kansas as the complex
slowly shifts southeastward tonight. Showers should come to an end
from north to south by Friday morning, with drier air filtering
into the region and clouds finally clearing from north to south by
late afternoon.

North northwesterly flow on the back side of the mid to upper
level trough will continue through the weekend. This will keep
temperatures well below seasonal normals. A shortwave trough and
cold front will push into the area from the north Saturday night
into Sunday, bringing chances for a few showers and storms back
into the forecast. Very pleasant weather is expected for Monday
and Tuesday as northerly flow and high pressure build into the
region with highs in the 70s and overnight lows in the upper 50s
with very low humidity. As the longwave trough finally shifts east
on Wednesday a ridge and warm air advection returns back to the
area. This should lead to a slight increase in moisture and
temperatures as well as reintroduce some slight PoP chances as we
head towards the end of next week.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday Evening)
Issued at 638PM CDT THU JUL 30 2020

MVFR with patchy IFR conditions expected for the duration of the
forecast period. Showers and isolated t-storms continue across
much of the region with t-storm activity favored for areas around
STJ.

A low pressure system currently centered in E KS will make its way
eastward before dropping south Friday morning. Conditions are
favorable for showers and some isolated thunderstorms to persist
for the next several hours. Thunderstorm chances decrease as the
evening goes on. Primary aviation impacts are low ceilings and
reduced visibilities especially if an airfield experiences a heavy
downpour. Brief periods of IFR conditions are possible. Rain is
anticipated to persist for STJ for most of the night. MCI/MKC
should also experience rain for much of the night; however, there
is some uncertainty as the system evolves and moves toward the
east then south. The center of the low pressure is expected to
pass near IXD leading to a possible break in the rain, but winds
are expected to be variable and could be a bit gusty. VFR
conditions are expected to return midday Friday.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...Williams
Aviation...Pesel

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