Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Kansas City, MO

Atchison County, KS, Doniphan County, KS, Johnson County, KS, Leavenworth County, KS, Linn County, KS, Miami County, KS, Wyandotte County, KS, Andrew County, MO, Atchison County, MO, Bates County, MO, Buchanan County, MO, Caldwell County, MO, Carroll County, MO, Cass County, MO, Clay County, MO, Clinton County, MO, Daviess County, MO, DeKalb County, MO, Gentry County, MO, Grundy County, MO, Harrison County, MO, Henry County, MO, Holt County, MO, Jackson County, MO, Johnson County, MO, Lafayette County, MO, Linn County, MO, Livingston County, MO, Mercer County, MO, Nodaway County, MO, Platte County, MO, Putnam County, MO, Ray County, MO, Schuyler County, MO, Sullivan County, MO, Worth County, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
1135 PM CDT Sat May 23 2020

.Discussion...
Issued at 312 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020

The upper-level pattern remains messy across North America, with the
closed over the Upper Midwest moving away, another closed low slowly
moving through the northern Rockies, and a MCS diving southeast into
the southeastern US, under the upper ridge, spreading some cirrus
over the area. This was all inhibiting the longwave pattern from
really dominating over the region and likely helped temperatures
from warming to their potential given the upper ridging. With
that said, once the Upper Midwest low moves away, the upper ridge
over the eastern half of country should allow for temperatures to
climb into the mid to upper 80s tomorrow. With the western low
moving into the Plains tomorrow and the ridge to the east, low-
level flow will allow copious amounts of moisture to advect into
the region. Dewpoints tomorrow should be able to climb into the
upper 60s and lower 70s. And with afternoon temperatures in the
middle 80s, it'll feel like a typical hot and humid summer
afternoon. That heat and humidity will lead to afternoon
instability and as a result, can't rule out some isolated showers
and storms. However, the better chances for storms should come
later in the evening to the overnight. Storms should develop
northwest of the area during the afternoon along a weak front or
surface trough and then track to the southeast with time into the
deeper moisture and instability.

Beyond Monday, the upper pattern becomes even more complicated as
the trough that helped initiate the Sunday and Sunday night
convection becomes cutoff and and spins over southern Plains and
likely throwing cloud cover and moisture northward into the forecast
area. So the summer-like temperatures and humidity for at least part
of the Memorial Day weekend, will give way to cooler, though still
in the 70s, temperatures and reasonable dewpoints in the lower 60s.
There will also be sporadic precipitation chances throughout next
week, though nothing looks widespread at this point.

&&

.Aviation...(For the 06Z TAFS through 06Z Sunday Night)
Issued at 1135 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2020

VFR conditions are expected through the period with winds increasing
mid morning from the south with gusts in the 20s. Impacts to
aviation from scattered thunderstorms become possible in the
afternoon after 19-20Z. There is some uncertainty to where exactly
the storms will form up, but the overall trend in our guidance has
been along and east of the KS/MO border once we get enough surface
heating. These storms will not have much organization to them so
VCTS was used to convey the approximate timeframe of potential
storms. These storms will likely last for a few hours, moving into
northern and central Missouri just before sunset, around 00Z.
Another round of storms is expected to push into the area around
midnight from a line of storms that developed over Nebraska and
Kansas during the afternoon. These storms look to be more organized
and will likely be a solid line as they push through overnight.

&&

.EAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.
&&

Discussion...CDB
Aviation...Barham

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Kansas City/Pleasant Hill MO
501 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-241015-
Atchison KS-Miami-Linn KS-Doniphan-Leavenworth-Wyandotte-Johnson KS-
Atchison MO-Nodaway-Worth-Gentry-Harrison-Mercer-Putnam-Schuyler-
Holt-Andrew-De Kalb-Daviess-Grundy-Sullivan-Adair-Buchanan-Clinton-
Caldwell-Livingston-Linn MO-Macon-Platte-Clay-Ray-Carroll-Chariton-
Randolph-Jackson-Lafayette-Saline-Howard-Cass-Johnson MO-Pettis-
Cooper-Bates-Henry-
501 AM CDT Sat May 23 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for northwest...north central and
west central Missouri...as well as extreme eastern Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

 No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

 Storms return later in the day Sunday. Severe weather is possible
with hail and damaging winds being the main concerns. Can't
completely rule out a tornado or two either. On and off storms
continue Monday through Tuesday.

 More detailed information can be accessed at...
 https://www.weather.gov/eax/hwo