Alert archive / Michigan / High Wind Warnings in 2020

High Wind Warning 1, NWS Detroit, MI

November 15, 202017 counties in Michigan

NWS Detroit, MI issued this high wind warning at Nov 15, 2020, 3:06 AM EST for 17 counties in Michigan. It took effect at Nov 15, 2020, 10:00 AM EST. It was in force for 13 hr. 30 reports came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
Nov 15, 2020, 3:06 AM EST (08:06 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 15, 2020, 10:00 AM EST
Expired
Nov 15, 2020, 11:03 PM EST
In force
13 hr
Issued by
NWS Detroit, MI

Counties Bay County, MI, Genesee County, MI, Huron County, MI, Lapeer County, MI, Lenawee County, MI, Livingston County, MI, Macomb County, MI, Midland County, MI, Monroe County, MI, Oakland County, MI, Saginaw County, MI, Saint Clair County, MI, Sanilac County, MI, Shiawassee County, MI, Tuscola County, MI, Washtenaw County, MI, Wayne County, MI

The radar

The Detroit radar (KDTX), 26 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 08:09 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
Nov 15, 11:27 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 555 S Clarkston, MIMEASURED AT OAKLAND COUNTY INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 11:35 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 475 Wsw Temperance, MIMEASURED AT LAMBERTVILLE AWOS.
Nov 15, 11:55 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 653 Sw Troy, MIMEASURED AT OAKLAND/TROY AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 11:59 AM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 585 Ene Detroit, MIMEASURED AT DETROIT CITY AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 12:00 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGPort Huron, MISEVERAL LARGE TREES DOWN THROUGHOUT THE CITY DUE TO HIGH WIND GUSTS.
Nov 15, 12:50 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 484 Wnw Temperance, MI
Nov 15, 12:51 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 611 Se Romulus, MIMEASURED AT DETROIT METRO AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 12:55 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 464 Nnw Midland, MI
Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 471 Se Whitmore Lake, MI
Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 482 W Ann Arbor, MI
Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGAnn Arbor, MISEVERAL LARGE LIMBS DOWN DUE TO HIGH WIND GUSTS. TIME ESTIMATED FROM PEAK WIND OBSERVATION AT ANN ARBOR AIRPORT DUE TO EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND DELAYED REPORTING OF DAMAGE.
Nov 15, 1:00 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMGN Berkley, MILARGE LIMBS DOWN DUE TO HIGH WINDS RESULTING IN HOME AND VEHICLE DAMAGE. TIME ESTIMATED DUE TO EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND DELAYED REPORTING OF DAMAGE.
Nov 15, 1:09 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 594 Ene Mount Clemens, MIMEASURED AT SELFRIDGE AIR NATIONAL GUARD BASE.
Nov 15, 1:15 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 492 Wnw Howell, MI
Nov 15, 1:20 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 614 S Ann Arbor, MIMEASURED AT ANN ARBOR AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 1:23 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 555 S Auburn, MIMEASURED AT TRI-CITIES AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 1:35 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 464 Ene Saginaw, MIMEASURED AT HARRY BROWNE AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 1:35 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 542 Nw Monroe, MI
Nov 15, 1:46 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 502 E Ortonville, MI
Nov 15, 2:00 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND DMG1 Wsw Rochester, MILARGE TREES DOWN DUE TO HIGH WIND GUSTS. TIME ESTIMATED FROM PEAK WIND OBSERVATION AT PONTIAC AIRPORT DUE TO EXTENDED PERIOD OF HIGH WINDS AND DELAYED REPORTING OF DAMAGE.
Nov 15, 2:22 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 584 Sw Harsens Island, MI
Nov 15, 2:35 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 472 Sse Bad Axe, MI
Nov 15, 2:41 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 472 S Grosse Ile, MI
Nov 15, 3:00 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 473 Ese Flat Rock, MI
Nov 15, 3:54 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 605 E Ypsilanti, MIMEASURED AT WILLOW RUN AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 4:25 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 603 Sw Adrian, MIMEASURED AT LENAWEE COUNTY AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 4:29 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 544 N Bay Port, MI
Nov 15, 4:34 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 545 Sw Flint, MIMEASURED AT FLINT AIRPORT.
Nov 15, 5:24 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 473 Ene Lapeer, MI
Nov 15, 5:30 PM ESTNON-TSTM WND GST 456 W St. Clair Shores, MI

Local storm reports filed while the alert was in force, from inside its polygon or its counties.

The nearest sounding before it

Detroit, MI (KDTX), launched 00:00Z, 8.1 hours before the alert went out and 25 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2020-11-15Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 0 joules per kilogram.LCL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Detroit, MI at 00:00Z on 2020-11-15The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 229 square meters per square second.1939587897117Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL
2216 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
45 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
229 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
278 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

548 
WWUS73 KDTX 150806
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
306 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

MIZ047-048-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-151615-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WI.Y.0004.201115T1200Z-201116T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.HW.W.0001.201115T1600Z-201116T0000Z/
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Saginaw, Owosso, 
Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, 
Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
306 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Southeast Michigan

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most frequent wind gusts will fall into
  the 45 to 55 MPH range. There will however be a few gusts that
  hit 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MIZ049-054-055-151615-
/O.UPG.KDTX.WI.Y.0004.201115T1200Z-201116T0500Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.HW.W.0001.201115T1600Z-201116T0200Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
306 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 9 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...Huron, Tuscola and Sanilac Counties.

* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most frequent wind gusts will be 50 to
  55 MPH with a few gusts up to or just over 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$
4 follow-up statements
752 
WWUS73 KDTX 151429
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
929 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

MIZ047-048-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-152230-
/O.EXT.KDTX.HW.W.0001.201115T1500Z-201116T0000Z/
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Saginaw, Owosso, 
Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, 
Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
929 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 25 to 30 mph with gusts up to 60
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Portions of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Scattered heavy showers and isolated
  thunderstorms are expected from 10 AM - 1 PM, producing wind
  gusts around 60 mph. Occasional westerly wind gusts of 45-60 
  mph are then expected through the rest of the afternoon into the
  early evening hours. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MIZ049-054-055-152230-
/O.EXT.KDTX.HW.W.0001.201115T1500Z-201116T0200Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
929 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 60
  mph expected.

* WHERE...Huron, Sanilac and Tuscola Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most frequent wind gusts will be 50 to
  55 MPH with a few gusts at or just over 60 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

sf
660 
WWUS73 KDTX 152004
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
304 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

MIZ047-048-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-160000-
/O.CON.KDTX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0000Z/
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Saginaw, Owosso, 
Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, 
Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
304 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Westerly winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts of 45 to 55 mph. 
  An isolated gust to 60 mph remains possible.

* WHERE...Most of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 7 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Wind gusts have peaked in the 55 to 65 mph
  range across most locations earlier today, with winds slowly
  decreasing the rest of the day. The key work is slowly, as wind
  gusts around 45 mph will likely continue into the late evening 
  hours.
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

MIZ049-054-055-160200-
/O.CON.KDTX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0200Z/
Huron-Tuscola-Sanilac-
Including the cities of Bad Axe, Caro, and Sandusky
304 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 30 to 35 mph with gusts of 50 to 
  60 mph.

* WHERE...Huron, Sanilac and Tuscola Counties.

* WHEN...Until 9 PM EST this evening.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The most frequent wind gusts will be 50 to
  55 MPH with a few gusts at or just over 60 MPH near Saginaw Bay.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$

sf
434 
WWUS73 KDTX 152359
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
659 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

MIZ047-048-053-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-160900-
/O.CAN.KDTX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WI.Y.0005.201115T2359Z-201116T0900Z/
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Saginaw, Owosso, 
Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, Ann Arbor, 
Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
659 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 50 mph
  expected.

* WHERE...All of southeast Michigan except Huron and Tuscola
  counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts remain capable of damaging unsecured
  objects. Tree damage and power outages remain possible. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Westerly wind gusts diminish off the
  afternoon peak but remain capable of reaching 45 to 50 mph with
  a stray gust of 50 to 55 mph still possible before midnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ055-160900-
/O.CAN.KDTX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.WI.Y.0005.201115T2359Z-201116T0900Z/
Sanilac-
Including the city of Sandusky
659 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts around 50 mph
  expected. 

* WHERE...Sanilac County.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts remain capable of damaging unsecured
  objects. Tree damage and power outages remain possible. 

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Westerly wind gusts remain capable of 
  reaching 45 to 50 mph with a stray gust of 50 to 55 mph still 
  possible before midnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ049-054-160500-
/O.EXT.KDTX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0500Z/
Huron-Tuscola-
Including the cities of Bad Axe and Caro
659 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...

* WHAT...Southwest to west winds 30 to 35 mph with gusts of 50 
  to 60 mph expected.

* WHERE...Huron and Tuscola Counties.

* WHEN...Until midnight EST tonight.

* IMPACTS...Damaging winds will blow down trees and power lines. 
  Widespread power outages are expected. Travel will be 
  difficult, especially for high profile vehicles.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Southwest wind gusting near 60 mph across
  Saginaw Bay continues to threaten shoreline areas. The most
  frequent wind gusts inland will be around 50 mph. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

People should avoid being outside in forested areas and around
trees and branches. If possible, remain in the lower levels of
your home during the windstorm, and avoid windows. Use caution if
you must drive.

&&

$$
839 
WWUS73 KDTX 160403
NPWDTX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1103 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

MIZ049-054-160900-
/O.CAN.KDTX.HW.W.0001.000000T0000Z-201116T0500Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
Huron-Tuscola-
Including the cities of Bad Axe and Caro
1103 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...HIGH WIND WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph expected.

* WHERE...Huron and Tuscola Counties.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts remain capable of damaging 
  unsecured objects. Tree damage and power outages remain 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Westerly wind gusts have diminish off the
  afternoon and evening peak but remain capable of reaching 45 to
  50 mph, especially along the Saginaw Bay shoreline. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

MIZ047-048-053-055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-160900-
/O.CON.KDTX.WI.Y.0005.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
Midland-Bay-Saginaw-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-
Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
Including the cities of Midland, Bay City, Saginaw, Sandusky, 
Owosso, Flint, Lapeer, Port Huron, Howell, Pontiac, Warren, 
Ann Arbor, Detroit, Adrian, and Monroe
1103 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...West winds 20 to 25 mph with gusts to around 45 mph 
  expected.

* WHERE...All of southeast Michigan.

* WHEN...Until 4 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong wind gusts remain capable of damaging 
  unsecured objects. Tree damage and power outages remain 
  possible.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS... Westerly wind gusts further diminished
  during the evening but remain capable of reaching 45 to 50 mph
  while becoming more infrequent after midnight. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Use extra caution when driving, especially if operating a high
profile vehicle. Secure outdoor objects.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this high wind warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this high wind warning went out at Nov 15, 12:07 AM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 15, 12:07 AM EST, 2 hours 59 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
1207 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

.AVIATION...

Evolution of strong low pressure in Iowa into Wisconsin is
proceeding on schedule during the late night on its way into Upper
Michigan. The system pulls a warm front from the Ohio Valley toward
the Lower Michigan border before strongly occluding during the
morning. Conditions are deteriorating in advance of the surface
features as rain showers continue expanding over SE Michigan.
Increasing wind speed remains from the SE for a supply of dry air
near the surface which is quickly being overcome. This leads to
ceiling becoming more fully MVFR before trending down to IFR as the
frontal occlusion takes place toward sunrise. Ceiling snaps back to
MVFR after a burst of showers leading in the main push of colder
air. Very strong to damaging SW wind gusts around 45 knots become
likely in this colder air by afternoon which lasts into Sunday
night. Additional rain showers occur mostly toward MBS into Sunday
evening.

For DTW... VFR with a steady SE wind lingers for a few more hours
during the late night along with some wavering MVFR ceiling and
visibility in heavier rain showers. Low end MVFR is expected by
sunrise with brief IFR possible. Thunderstorm potential will be
monitored as lightning strikes continue being detected across the
Midwest, however overall coverage and duration expectations remain
low. Strong to damaging SW wind gusts remain by far the primary
concern through the day.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less late tonight and today.

* Low for thunderstorms late tonight and morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 957 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

UPDATE...

Mid evening observations show an excellent combination of upper
level and surface features associated with the Plains to Midwest low
pressure system. The mid level trough and upper jet present well in
satellite imagery and model analysis fields show the surface low
positioned over Iowa under the exit region of the upper jet. Further
strengthening occurs as the surface low reaches Upper Michigan by
sunrise and the 250 mb jet moves over Lower Michigan at 140 kts.
Showers from western Ohio to Illinois are concentrated within the
850-700 mb theta-e ridge maturing with the help of a low level jet
increasing to about 60 knots at 850 mb. The very strong isentropic
lift and moisture transport drives the pattern of showers into SE
Michigan during the night and brings the greatest concentration with
the frontal occlusion toward sunrise and through the morning. No
changes are needed with categorical POPs already in the forecast
late tonight through Sunday morning.

A chance of thunderstorms is about the only thing to monitor for
addition to the forecast considering observations from Missouri into
southern Illinois this evening. That activity still has a slight
surface based instability connection that remains in the Tennessee
Valley during the night. However some elevated instability could
make it into SE Michigan before the occlusion pinches off the
moisture axis in the morning. A few rumbles of thunder are possible
during that time.

The strong to damaging wind pattern moving in by Sunday afternoon is
by far the most significant aspect of this system. The wind threat
begins with a secondary convective response that is showing up in
high-res model solutions during the morning into early afternoon that
is on the leading edge of the negative tilt upper trough and the
west flank of the mid level theta-e ridge and low level jet. Model
soundings indicate a shallow and mostly elevated instability profile
on the leading edge of strong low level cold advection. Soundings
then show a steep lapse rate boundary layer building into a wind
profile increasing to about 60 knots at 850 mb during Sunday
afternoon. The character of this thermal profile adds some
confidence to surface wind gusts reaching 50 knots/58 mph for a few
hours and an upgrade from Wind Advisory to High Wind Warning will be
considered for the full 4 AM forecast package.

PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

DISCUSSION...

A quiet first half of the day marked by morning sunshine (and
afternoon for those across the Tri-Cities and Thumb) have been
observed across the Great Lakes due in part to a departing high
pressure system and a building ridge on the backside of the high.
Quieter conditions will be short-lived however, as a drastic change
in weather conditions will take place across the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours. Focus will turn to a dynamic upper-level wave that
will aid in the development and strengthening of a low pressure
system, projected to travel east of the Rockies and into northern
Lake Michigan now into Sun 12Z. Energetic jet streak upstream of the
upper-level trough axis (across the Rockies) will act the amplify
the upper-level trough, with the trough axis eventually turning
negative as it pivots over the Midwest and Great Lakes during the
12-18Z Sunday time frame. This will have several implications for
weather across the Great Lakes area. First, downstream warm-front
amplification/isentropic ascent will result in shower activity across
SE MI starting late tonight early Sunday morning. Widespread rain
across SE MI and the entire Great Lakes to then become likely
overnight into early Sunday afternoon given the closer proximity to
the approaching low pressure, fropa, and from ample moisture that
races into Michigan ahead of the low, aided by a very strong low-
level jet with a magnitude on the order of 50-60 knots. PW values
around 1.00" will be ushered in as a result. This building low-level
jet will coincide with rain chances, providing the chance to see
gusts on the order or 30-40 mph with rain activity, but thunderstorm
potential/stronger gust potential remains very low given the the
stable atmospheric profile. Otherwise, a developing pressure gradient
in response to the strengthening low pressure system will increase
gradient flow with sustained winds around 20-25 knots overnight.

Low pressure is then expected to continue to strengthen down to a
seasonably strong 980 low as it pivots into Ontario, which will
maintain a strong pressure gradient across the Great Lakes while the
strong low-level jet holds, with h850 winds ranging between 50-55
knots. The passage of the low will allow a cold front to sweep
across SE MI between 15-19Z, which will be met with a notable uptick
in wind gusts as mixing depths tap into the stronger wind aloft,
aided by downward momentum transfer from a passing PV anomaly. As a
result, sustained winds on the order of 20-30 mph, with non-
convective gusts ranging between 45-55 mph will be expected,
starting Sunday by the mid-morning and lasting into Sunday late
evening. Given the potential mixing depths into 60 knots aloft as
observed in the HRRR/RAP/GFS and overall strength/rapid deepening of
the low (-30 dam 12 hr height change at 18Z), a sporadic gust to 60
mph will remain possible through the day. Best potential to reach 60
mph gusts will hedge over the Thumb, coinciding with the stronger
gusts aloft. For this forecast package, decided to go with a high-end
wind advisory with enhanced wording in the wind headline, as
confidence remains too low regarding the potential to see
geographically widespread 58+ mph wind gusts, which is the target
for a high wind warning gust potential. Low-level flow will back
from south to west-southwest following the passage of the front,
where caa and lake enhanced moisture will continue to produce the
chance for rain showers through the afternoon, especially north of
the Metro Detroit region. A cooling atmospheric profile behind the
front will bring the chance to see rain/snow or some melting
snowflakes late Sunday evening into early Monday morning as WBZ
heights drop to or below 1000ft. The pressure gradient and associated
strong wind field aloft will gradually diminish in intensity into
Monday morning, resulting in diminished wind gust potential as the
low pushes off into Quebec.

With the exception of light precipitation chances late Monday into
Tuesday from a glancing shortwave, high pressure and a dry airmass
will fill in over the central US and Great Lakes and will bring a
period of dry weather. Temperatures slightly below normal with highs
in the low 40s to upper 30s are expected following the passage of
the cold front on Tuesday and Wednesday, with rebounding
temperatures expected to end the week associated with return flow
from the high.

MARINE...

A deepening low will begin to lift through the western Great Lakes
this evening reaching the eastern UP daytime Sunday. Rapid
tightening of the pressure gradient will strengthen SE flow over
Lake Huron with gale force gusts becoming likely by early tonight.
Winds continue to strengthen over the course of the night with low-
end sustained gales and high-end gale force gusts likely by early
Sunday morning. System's cold front crosses the central Great Lakes
Sunday early afternoon rotating winds to SW and eventually W by
Sunday night. The peak of this event is expected to come Sunday
afternoon/evening with these strong post-frontal winds. Strong gales
of 40-45 knots will be possible across all lakes including St Clair
and MI waters Erie. The probabilities of storm force wind gusts
(with sustained gale force winds) have been increasing in the
guidance for central and southern Lake Huron due to the long fetch
from SW flow and mixing down of the low-level jet. This will be
watched closely in coming forecast updates to see if a storm warning
will become necessary. This low departs into northern Canada Monday
allowing winds to slowly weaken but still remaining breezy under
moderate NW flow into the midweek period.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rain will fill in across all of SE MI starting late
tonight and lasting through early Sunday afternoon. Sporadic
scattered rain showers will then be possible late Sunday afternoon
into Sunday evening, especially north of the Detroit Metro region.
Total rain accumulation will amount to .50 to .75 inches. Given the
steadier and long duration rain event combined with prior dry
conditions, little flooding impact is expected.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Wind Advisory from 7 AM this morning to midnight EST tonight for
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 7 AM this morning to 7 AM EST Monday
     for MIZ063.

Lake Huron...Storm Warning from noon today to 7 AM EST Monday for LHZ363-421-422-
     441-462-463.

     Gale Warning until noon EST today for LHZ363-421-422-441-462-463.

     Gale Warning from 7 AM to 10 AM EST Monday for LHZ363-421-422-441-
     462-463.

     Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for LHZ361-362-442-443-464.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM EST Monday for
     LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Low Water Advisory from noon today to 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ444.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM early this morning to 4 AM EST Monday for
     LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....BT
UPDATE.......BT
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 14, 3:37 PM EST, 11 hours 29 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
337 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-152045-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
337 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A well-mixed lower atmosphere and strong winds aloft will produce
southwest gusts in the 45-55 mph range starting Sunday mid morning,
with gusts continuing through the evening. Please review the latest
Weather Message (NPW) for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-152045-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
337 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A strong low pressure system with a cold front will approach tonight
producing gusts to gales and showers. Please review the latest Marine
Weather Message (MWW) for additional information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A well-mixed lower atmosphere and strong winds aloft will produce
sustained southwest gales and high-end gusts to gales in the 40-45
knot range. Please review the latest Marine Weather Message (MWW)
for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

AM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 14, 9:24 PM ESTGale WarningDTX6 hr
Nov 14, 9:24 PM ESTStorm WarningDTX30 hr
Nov 14, 11:03 PM ESTLakeshore Flood WarningDTXSaint Clair28 hr
Nov 15, 11:25 AM ESTSpecial Marine WarningDTX25 min
Nov 15, 6:59 PM ESTWind AdvisoryDTXBay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and 11 more8 hr

Nearby

High Wind Warnings in Michigan, 2020Every high wind warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; local storm reports from the same archive; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.