Alert archive / Michigan / Storm Warnings in 2020

Storm Warning 2, NWS Detroit, MI

November 14, 2020

NWS Detroit, MI issued this storm warning at Nov 14, 2020, 9:24 PM EST. It took effect at Nov 15, 2020, 3:50 AM EST. It was in force for 24 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued
Nov 14, 2020, 9:24 PM EST (02:24 UTC)
In effect from
Nov 15, 2020, 3:50 AM EST
Expired
Nov 16, 2020, 3:53 AM EST
In force
24 hr
Issued by
NWS Detroit, MI

The text

As transmitted.

400 
WHUS73 KDTX 150224
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
924 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

LHZ363-421-422-441-462-463-151430-
/O.EXT.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201115T1700Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SR.W.0002.201115T1700Z-201116T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0027.201116T1200Z-201116T1500Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
924 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST SUNDAY...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...During the Storm Warning, expect sustained winds up to 38
  knots from the southwest with gusts up to 56 knots. The largest
  significant waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave
  height of 17 feet. During the first Gale Warning, expect
  sustained winds up to 30 knots from the south with gusts up to
  46 knots. The largest significant waves will be 8 feet with a
  potential maximum wave height of 11 feet. During the second Gale
  Warning, expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the
  southwest with gusts up to 48 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16
  feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Huron. 

* WHEN...During the Storm Warning, the maximum winds are 
  expected around 5 PM EST Sunday with the largest waves 
  expected around 6 PM EST Sunday. During the Gale Warning, the 
  maximum winds are expected around 7 AM EST Monday with the 
  largest waves expected around 7 AM EST Monday. During the Gale 
  Warning, the maximum winds are expected around 10 AM EST 
  Sunday with the largest waves expected around 9 AM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ444-151430-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.201115T0900Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.201115T1700Z-201116T1200Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
924 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON SUNDAY TO 7 AM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  32 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 49 knots. The 
  largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, 
  abnormally low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 12 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 2 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-442-443-464-151430-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201116T1500Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
924 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 36 knots from the southwest
  with gusts up to 48 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI, Port Sanilac to 
  Port Huron MI, Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from 
  Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-151430-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.201115T0900Z-201116T0900Z/
Lake St Clair-
924 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 AM SUNDAY TO 4 AM EST
MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 47 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 2 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$
5 follow-up statements
817 
WHUS73 KDTX 150850
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
350 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

LHZ422-152100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201115T1700Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.SR.W.0002.201115T0850Z-201116T1200Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.201115T1600Z-201116T0300Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0027.201116T1200Z-201116T1500Z/
Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
350 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM
EST THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...During the storm warning, expect sustained winds up to 32
  knots from the southwest with gusts up to 50 knots. The largest
  significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave
  height of 7 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low
  water levels expected.

* WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous
  waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-441-462-463-152100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201115T1700Z/
/O.EXT.KDTX.SR.W.0002.201115T0850Z-201116T1200Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0027.201116T1200Z-201116T1500Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
350 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...


* WHAT...During the Storm Warning, expect sustained winds up to 38
  knots from the southwest with gusts up to 52 knots. The largest
  significant waves will be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave
  height of 17 feet. 

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 
  5NM Off Shore, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI, Lake Huron from 
  Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore and Outer 
  Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw 
  Bay.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 5 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 6 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous
  waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ444-152100-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.201115T0900Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.201115T1700Z-201116T1200Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
350 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM
EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  32 knots from the southwest with gusts up to 49 knots. The 
  largest significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 7 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, 
  abnormally low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 12 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 2 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal 
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous
  waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-442-443-464-152100-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201116T1500Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
350 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 36 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 48 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  19 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI, Port Sanilac to 
  Port Huron MI, Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to 
  Presque Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from 
  Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous
  waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-152100-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.201115T0900Z-201116T0900Z/
Lake St Clair-
350 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 47 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 
  feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 2 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous
  waves which could capsize or damage vessels and reduce
  visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$
396 
WHUS73 KDTX 151456
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
956 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

LHZ442-443-464-160000-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201116T1500Z/
/O.EXA.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
956 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 35 knots from the 
  southwest with gusts up to 53 knots. The largest significant 
  waves will be 7 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 
  10 feet.

* WHERE...Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI, Port Sanilac to Port 
  Huron MI and Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 
  5NM Off Shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 5 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-160000-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201116T1500Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1500Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
956 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 37 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 51 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ444-160000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.201115T1700Z-201116T1200Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
956 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 32
  knots from the west with gusts up to 46 knots. The largest 
  significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave 
  height of 7 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low 
  water levels expected.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 12 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LCZ460-160000-
/O.CON.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
Lake St Clair-
956 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 46 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 2 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ422-160000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.201115T1600Z-201116T0300Z/
Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
956 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...During the Storm Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  34 knots from the west with gusts up to 51 knots. The largest 
  significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave 
  height of 7 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally 
  low water levels expected.

* WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-441-462-463-160000-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
956 AM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 38 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 54 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM 
  Off Shore, Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 
  5NM Off Shore, Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI, Lake Huron from 
  Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore and Outer 
  Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw 
  Bay.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 5 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 6 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

IRL
624 
WHUS73 KDTX 151838
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
138 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

LEZ444-160800-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
138 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...During the Storm Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  32 knots from the west with gusts up to 52 knots. The largest 
  significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave 
  height of 7 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally 
  low water levels.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LCZ460-160800-
/O.UPG.KDTX.GL.W.0026.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.EXB.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
Lake St Clair-
138 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 48 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 4 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ422-160800-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-201116T0300Z/
Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
138 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...During the Storm Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  34 knots from the west with gusts up to 51 knots. The largest 
  significant waves will be 5 feet with a potential maximum wave 
  height of 7 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally 
  low water levels.

* WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 4 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below 
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464-160800-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
138 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 38 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 54 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 17 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Huron. 

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 5 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 6 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-160800-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1500Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
138 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 37 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 51 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 13 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 7 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 10 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

IRL
104 
WHUS73 KDTX 160152
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
852 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

LEZ444-161200-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0028.201116T0152Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
852 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...During the Gale Warning, expect sustained winds up to 
  27 knots from the west with gusts up to 45 knots. The largest 
  significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave 
  height of 5 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally 
  low water levels.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below normal
  water levels will result in hazardous navigating conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LCZ460-160900-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0028.201116T0152Z-201116T0900Z/
Lake St Clair-
852 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 25 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 43 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 3 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 4 feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-161200-
/O.EXT.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
852 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 35 knots from the west with
  gusts up to 50 knots. The largest significant waves will be 13 
  feet with a potential maximum wave height of 19 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 10 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 2 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ422-161200-
/O.EXT.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
852 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...LOW WATER ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY...
...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...During the Storm Warning, expect sustained winds up to 29
  knots from the west with gusts up to 50 knots. The largest 
  significant waves will be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave 
  height of 5 feet. During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low 
  water levels.

* WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 8 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility. Below 
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating 
  conditions.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464-161200-
/O.CON.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
852 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 33 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 51 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 11 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 16 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Huron. 

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 8 PM EST Sunday 
  with the largest waves expected around 9 PM EST Sunday.

* IMPACTS...Very strong winds will cause hazardous waves which 
  could capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should remain in port, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$
530 
WHUS73 KDTX 160853
MWWDTX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
353 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

LHZ422-161700-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0029.201116T0853Z-201116T1700Z/
/O.CAN.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
353 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 26 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 39 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 4 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 5 feet.

* WHERE...Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EST Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ444-162100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0076.201116T0853Z-201116T2100Z/
/O.CON.KDTX.LO.Y.0009.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
353 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...LOW WATER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS
MORNING...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...During the Low Water Advisory, abnormally low water 
  levels. During the Small Craft Advisory, expect sustained 
  winds up to 21 knots from the west with gusts up to 33 knots. 
  The largest significant waves will be 3 feet with a potential 
  maximum wave height of 4 feet.

* WHERE...Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to 
  North Cape MI.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EST Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft. Below 
  normal water levels will result in hazardous navigating 
  conditions.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

Mariners should navigate shallow waters with extreme caution due
to below normal water levels.

&&

$$

LHZ363-421-441>443-462>464-161700-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0029.201116T0853Z-201116T1700Z/
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off
shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner
Saginaw Bay-Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-
Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
353 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TODAY...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 28 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 42 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 9 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 13 feet.

* WHERE...Portions of Lake Huron. 

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EST Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LHZ361-362-162100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.SR.W.0002.000000T0000Z-201116T1200Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.GL.W.0029.201116T0853Z-201116T2200Z/
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond
5NM off shore-
353 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 30 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 42 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 12 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 17 feet.

* WHERE...Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque 
  Isle Lt beyond 5 NM off shore and Lake Huron from Presque Isle 
  Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM off shore.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EST Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LCZ460-162100-
/O.CAN.KDTX.GL.W.0028.000000T0000Z-201116T0900Z/
/O.NEW.KDTX.SC.Y.0076.201116T0853Z-201116T2100Z/
Lake St Clair-
353 AM EST Mon Nov 16 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...Expect sustained winds up to 20 knots from the west 
  with gusts up to 32 knots. The largest significant waves will 
  be 2 feet with a potential maximum wave height of 3 feet.

* WHERE...Lake St Clair.

* WHEN...The maximum winds are expected around 3 AM EST Monday 
  with the largest waves expected around 3 AM EST Monday.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this storm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Detroit, MI wrote its last area forecast discussion before this storm warning went out at Nov 14, 7:05 PM EST, 2 hours 19 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Nov 14, 7:05 PM EST, 2 hours 19 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
705 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

.AVIATION...

A strong low pressure system organizing in the Midwest moves into
Upper Michigan tonight. The system pulls a warm front from the Ohio
Valley toward the Lower Michigan border after midnight before
strongly occluding during the morning. Conditions deteriorate in
advance of the surface features starting with increasing coverage of
VFR rain showers during the evening. It takes a while to fully
saturate the boundary layer as dry SE surface flow contributes to a
wavering ceiling around the MVFR threshold. The wind pattern also
consists of a LLWS component until gusts near 25 knots develop later
in the night. This is also about when ceiling becomes more fully
MVFR with greater coverage and intensity of showers. Conditions
trend down to IFR as the frontal occlusion takes place toward
sunrise and then snap back to MVFR as the strong SW flow develops
post front. Very strong to damaging SW wind gusts around 45 knots
become likely by late morning which last through afternoon along
with at least broken MVFR ceiling. Additional rain showers occur
mostly toward MBS into Sunday evening.

For DTW... VFR with a steady SE wind occurs during the evening which
limits radar evidence of showers to just very light activity at the
surface. Coverage and intensity of showers increase after midnight
accompanied by lowering ceiling and visibility. Low end MVFR is
expected by sunrise with brief IFR possible. Thunderstorm potential
will be monitored as a few lightning strikes where detected across
the Midwest, however overall coverage and duration expectations
remain low. Strong to damaging SW wind gusts remain by far the
primary concern through Sunday.

.DTW THRESHOLD PROBABILITIES...

* High for ceiling 5000 feet or less tonight and Sunday.

* Low for thunderstorms overnight.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
Issued at 257 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

DISCUSSION...

A quiet first half of the day marked by morning sunshine (and
afternoon for those across the Tri-Cities and Thumb) have been
observed across the Great Lakes due in part to a departing high
pressure system and a building ridge on the backside of the high.
Quieter conditions will be short-lived however, as a drastic change
in weather conditions will take place across the Great Lakes over the
next 24 hours. Focus will turn to a dynamic upper-level wave that
will aid in the development and strengthening of a low pressure
system, projected to travel east of the Rockies and into northern
Lake Michigan now into Sun 12Z. Energetic jet streak upstream of the
upper-level trough axis (across the Rockies) will act the amplify
the upper-level trough, with the trough axis eventually turning
negative as it pivots over the Midwest and Great Lakes during the
12-18Z Sunday time frame. This will have several implications for
weather across the Great Lakes area. First, downstream warm-front
amplification/isentropic ascent will result in shower activity across
SE MI starting late tonight early Sunday morning. Widespread rain
across SE MI and the entire Great Lakes to then become likely
overnight into early Sunday afternoon given the closer proximity to
the approaching low pressure, fropa, and from ample moisture that
races into Michigan ahead of the low, aided by a very strong low-
level jet with a magnitude on the order of 50-60 knots. PW values
around 1.00" will be ushered in as a result. This building low-level
jet will coincide with rain chances, providing the chance to see
gusts on the order or 30-40 mph with rain activity, but thunderstorm
potential/stronger gust potential remains very low given the the
stable atmospheric profile. Otherwise, a developing pressure gradient
in response to the strengthening low pressure system will increase
gradient flow with sustained winds around 20-25 knots overnight.

Low pressure is then expected to continue to strengthen down to a
seasonably strong 980 low as it pivots into Ontario, which will
maintain a strong pressure gradient across the Great Lakes while the
strong low-level jet holds, with h850 winds ranging between 50-55
knots. The passage of the low will allow a cold front to sweep
across SE MI between 15-19Z, which will be met with a notable uptick
in wind gusts as mixing depths tap into the stronger wind aloft,
aided by downward momentum transfer from a passing PV anomaly. As a
result, sustained winds on the order of 20-30 mph, with non-
convective gusts ranging between 45-55 mph will be expected,
starting Sunday by the mid-morning and lasting into Sunday late
evening. Given the potential mixing depths into 60 knots aloft as
observed in the HRRR/RAP/GFS and overall strength/rapid deepening of
the low (-30 dam 12 hr height change at 18Z), a sporadic gust to 60
mph will remain possible through the day. Best potential to reach 60
mph gusts will hedge over the Thumb, coinciding with the stronger
gusts aloft. For this forecast package, decided to go with a high-end
wind advisory with enhanced wording in the wind headline, as
confidence remains too low regarding the potential to see
geographically widespread 58+ mph wind gusts, which is the target
for a high wind warning gust potential. Low-level flow will back
from south to west-southwest following the passage of the front,
where caa and lake enhanced moisture will continue to produce the
chance for rain showers through the afternoon, especially north of
the Metro Detroit region. A cooling atmospheric profile behind the
front will bring the chance to see rain/snow or some melting
snowflakes late Sunday evening into early Monday morning as WBZ
heights drop to or below 1000ft. The pressure gradient and associated
strong wind field aloft will gradually diminish in intensity into
Monday morning, resulting in diminished wind gust potential as the
low pushes off into Quebec.

With the exception of light precipitation chances late Monday into
Tuesday from a glancing shortwave, high pressure and a dry airmass
will fill in over the central US and Great Lakes and will bring a
period of dry weather. Temperatures slightly below normal with highs
in the low 40s to upper 30s are expected following the passage of
the cold front on Tuesday and Wednesday, with rebounding
temperatures expected to end the week associated with return flow
from the high.

MARINE...

A deepening low will begin to lift through the western Great Lakes
this evening reaching the eastern UP daytime Sunday. Rapid
tightening of the pressure gradient will strengthen SE flow over
Lake Huron with gale force gusts becoming likely by early tonight.
Winds continue to strengthen over the course of the night with low-
end sustained gales and high-end gale force gusts likely by early
Sunday morning. System's cold front crosses the central Great Lakes
Sunday early afternoon rotating winds to SW and eventually W by
Sunday night. The peak of this event is expected to come Sunday
afternoon/evening with these strong post-frontal winds. Strong gales
of 40-45 knots will be possible across all lakes including St Clair
and MI waters Erie. The probabilities of storm force wind gusts
(with sustained gale force winds) have been increasing in the
guidance for central and southern Lake Huron due to the long fetch
from SW flow and mixing down of the low-level jet. This will be
watched closely in coming forecast updates to see if a storm warning
will become necessary. This low departs into northern Canada Monday
allowing winds to slowly weaken but still remaining breezy under
moderate NW flow into the midweek period.

HYDROLOGY...

Widespread rain will fill in across all of SE MI starting late
tonight and lasting through early Sunday afternoon. Sporadic
scattered rain showers will then be possible late Sunday afternoon
into Sunday evening, especially north of the Detroit Metro region.
Total rain accumulation will amount to .50 to .75 inches. Given the
steadier and long duration rain event combined with prior dry
conditions, little flooding impact is expected.

&&

.DTX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

MI...Wind Advisory from 7 AM Sunday to midnight EST Sunday night for
     MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083.

Lake Huron...Gale Warning until 10 AM EST Monday for LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-
     462>464.

Lake St Clair...Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for LCZ460.

Michigan waters of Lake Erie...Low Water Advisory from noon Sunday to 7 AM EST Monday for LEZ444.

     Gale Warning from 4 AM Sunday to 4 AM EST Monday for LEZ444.

&&

AVIATION.....BT
DISCUSSION...AM
MARINE.......KDK
HYDROLOGY....AM

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.
Hazardous weather outlook, Nov 14, 3:37 PM EST, 5 hours 47 minutes before
Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI
337 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

MIZ047>049-053>055-060>063-068>070-075-076-082-083-152045-
Midland-Bay-Huron-Saginaw-Tuscola-Sanilac-Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-
St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-Washtenaw-Wayne-Lenawee-Monroe-
337 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast
Michigan.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A well-mixed lower atmosphere and strong winds aloft will produce
southwest gusts in the 45-55 mph range starting Sunday mid morning,
with gusts continuing through the evening. Please review the latest
Weather Message (NPW) for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

LCZ460-LEZ444-LHZ361>363-421-422-441>443-462>464-152045-
Lake St Clair-
Michigan Waters of Lake Erie from Detroit River to North Cape MI-
Lake Huron from 5NM east of Mackinac Bridge to Presque Isle Lt
beyond 5 NM off shore-
Lake Huron from Presque Isle Light to Sturgeon Point MI beyond 5NM
off shore-
Lake Huron from Sturgeon Point to Alabaster MI beyond 5NM off shore-
Outer Saginaw Bay SW of Alabaster to Port Austin MI to Inner Saginaw
Bay-Inner Saginaw Bay SW of Point Au Gres to Bay Port MI-
Port Austin to Harbor Beach MI-Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac MI-
Port Sanilac to Port Huron MI-
Lake Huron from Port Austin to Harbor Beach beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Harbor Beach to Port Sanilac beyond 5NM Off Shore-
Lake Huron from Port Sanilac to Port Huron beyond 5NM Off Shore-
337 PM EST Sat Nov 14 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Huron and Lake St Clair.

.DAY ONE...This Afternoon and Tonight

A strong low pressure system with a cold front will approach tonight
producing gusts to gales and showers. Please review the latest Marine
Weather Message (MWW) for additional information.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A well-mixed lower atmosphere and strong winds aloft will produce
sustained southwest gales and high-end gusts to gales in the 40-45
knot range. Please review the latest Marine Weather Message (MWW)
for additional information.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed today and tonight.

You can obtain your latest National Weather Service forecasts online
at www.weather.gov/detroit.

AM

The office that day

Everything else NWS Detroit, MI issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
Nov 14, 9:24 PM ESTGale WarningDTX6 hr
Nov 14, 11:03 PM ESTLakeshore Flood WarningDTXSaint Clair28 hr
Nov 15, 3:06 AM ESTHigh Wind WarningDTXBay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and 11 more20 hr
Nov 15, 11:25 AM ESTSpecial Marine WarningDTX25 min
Nov 15, 6:59 PM ESTWind AdvisoryDTXBay, Genesee, Huron, Lapeer, Lenawee, Livingston and 11 more8 hr

Nearby

Storm Warnings in Michigan, 2020Every storm warning in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text.