Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Des Moines, IA

793 
WWUS53 KDMX 091855
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
155 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

IAC013-017-091905-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0099.000000T0000Z-200709T1900Z/
Black Hawk IA-Bremer IA-
155 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN BLACK HAWK AND
BREMER COUNTIES WILL EXPIRE AT 200 PM CDT...
                
The storm which prompted the warning has weakened below severe
limits, and no longer poses an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However gusty
winds and heavy rain are still possible with this thunderstorm.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
northeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4248 9236 4253 9255 4291 9254 4291 9214
TIME...MOT...LOC 1855Z 199DEG 25KT 4261 9239 

$$

Podrazik

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1251 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Wednesday/
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Messaging Highlights:

1) Thunderstorms are likely over portions of Iowa this morning
through tonight. A few storms could be strong to severe.

2) After a mainly dry day on Friday, warm and humid weather will
return this weekend and into next week. There will be several
chances for mainly overnight thunderstorm complexes, the first
being Friday night into Saturday.

Today through Tonight: Forecast Confidence: Medium

Early Morning -- as expected, the MCS over srn Nebraska with a
history of severe winds continues to accelerate sewd into KS/MO.
The far southwestern counties in our CWA could be clipped by
storms or outflow prior to 5-6am. At this point, the threat for
severe winds appear low but we could see winds in the 40-50mph
range. The convection further north over nern Neb and srn SD
appears to be weakening per lightning trends and warming cloud
tops.

Rest of Today -- the sfc trough/cold front and remnant MCV is
expected to move slowly across Iowa late this morning into the
afternoon. The latest short range guidance still suggests at least
moderate destabilization to occur with MLCAPE values of 1500-3000
J/kg after 18z. The 00Z CAM/HREF guidance appears to have a decent
handle on the evolution which shows scattered storms developing
between 11am-2pm. Deep layer shear still appears modest /20-30kts/
although there could be some local augmentation by the above
mentioned MCV - so a combination of multicell storms with perhaps
some embedded supercells are possible. Thus, damaging wind and
large hail will be possible with any more vigorous storms. Will
also need to watch the tornado potential closely. Moderate 0-3km
CAPE, low LCLs, and the possibility of locally backed winds and
enhanced low level SRH will be possible in the vicinity of the
front/MCV. Based on the latest HREF, the greatest tornado threat
appears be located across east-central to northeastern Iowa. In
terms of rainfall, abundant low level moisture and PWATs over 1.5"
could lead to some efficient rain producers. Unfortunately,
heavier rainfall amounts could again be feast or famine. Areas
east of I-35 and north of I-80 appear to have the highest
potential for seeing at least pockets of heavy rainfall, and
unfortunately the driest areas in the west/southwest could miss
out yet again. A few storms could linger early Thursday night
before moving eastward out of the area. Temps today will be a bit
cooler than previous days with highs in the mid 80s due to more
cloud cover and the potential for rain-cooled air. Lows tonight
should be a bit cooler with readings in the 60s.

Friday through Sunday: Forecast Confidence: Medium

A dry day is expected on Friday as sfc high pressure moves back in
area and weak subsidence occurs in the wake of the system. With
mostly sunny skies, highs should again rebound into the upper 80s
to near 90F.

On Friday night into early Saturday, a fast moving shortwave is
expected to top the building upper ridge over the southwest US.
This wave is expected to initiate scattered severe storms over
the Dakotas which will then morph into a nocturnal MCS somewhere
over the Midwest. A majority of the deterministic models dive the
MCS swd along or west of the Missouri River - reference the SPC
Day 2 outlook. However, depending on how the instability and
capping evolve, the MCS could move a couple hundred miles east or
west. At this point, have chance type PoPs in the forecast, and
will await future model runs to fine tune this forecast.

Remainder of the weekend looks mainly dry, with just low end PoPs
on Saturday. Temps should remain warm in the mid-upper 80s with
lows in the 60s to near 70F.

Extended - Monday thru Wednesday: Forecast Confidence: Low/Medium

Little change in overall thinking into next week with a strong
upper high/anticyclone becoming re-established over the western
and central US, and occasional shortwave energy traversing the
northern tier of US. This will continue to favor above normal
temperatures over the Midwest and Iowa - with occasional chances
for ridge runner thunderstorms complexes. Currently, have highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s next week, but there is the possibility
this is too cool. Unfortunately, these hot temps could exacerbate
the developing dryness/drought.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon/
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Thunderstorms will remain in vicinity of KMCW/KALO this afternoon
with showers near KFOD. Gusty winds possible near thunderstorms. The
convective chances at KDSM/KOTM are diminishing. The
precipitation will end across much of the area but 00z. Southerly
winds will switch from the northwest as a boundary moves through
the area. VFR conditions then overnight into Friday.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Fowle
AVIATION...Donavon

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
440 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-036>039-049-050-100945-
Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-
Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-
440 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the region
mainly late morning into the afternoon hours. Damaging winds and
brief heavy rainfall will be the main threats. There is also a
risk for isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are back in the forecast Saturday with a few strong
to severe storms possible. There are other low chances for storms
around Tuesday and Wednesday with the severe weather potential
better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed from midday today into the afternoon and
then possibly again this weekend.

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-034-035-046>048-058>062-071>075-082>086-
093>097-100945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Calhoun-Webster-
Greene-Boone-Story-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Adair-
Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
440 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the
region late this morning into the afternoon hours. Damaging winds
and brief heavy rainfall will be the main threats. There is also
a risk of an isolated tornado generally along and east of Interstate
35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are back in the forecast Saturday with a few strong
to severe storms possible. There are other low chances for storms
around Tuesday and Wednesday with the severe weather potential
better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed from midday today into the afternoon and
then possibly again this weekend.

IAZ033-044-045-057-070-081-092-100945-
Sac-Crawford-Carroll-Audubon-Cass-Adams-Taylor-
440 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Non-severe thunderstorms are possible this morning through noon
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are back in the forecast Saturday with a few strong
to severe storms possible. There are other low chances for storms
around Tuesday and Wednesday with the severe weather potential
better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today but may be needed this
weekend.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1151 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1148 AM     HEAVY RAIN       4 ENE LU VERNE          42.94N 94.01W
07/09/2020  E2.60 INCH       KOSSUTH            IA   BROADCAST MEDIA

            ONE-HOUR TOTAL, FROM 10:10 TO 11:10 AM.
            RELAYED BY WHO-TV13 IN DES MOINES.

&&

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1157 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1145 AM     TSTM WND GST     3 ENE CLEAR LAKE        43.15N 93.33W
07/09/2020  E61 MPH          CERRO GORDO        IA   PUBLIC

            WIND GUST AT THE MASON CITY AIRPORT.

&&

RD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

IAZ027-028-038-039-091800-
Black Hawk IA-Bremer IA-Grundy IA-Butler IA-
1206 PM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...Line of Storms to Bring Gusty Winds and Heavy Rain to
North-Central Iowa...

At 1204 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 7 miles southwest of Marble Rock to Allison to
near Dike to near Reinbeck. Movement was northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with these storms through 1
PM CDT.

Rainfall amounts up to two inches will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Waterloo, Cedar Falls, Waverly, Allison, Evansdale, Jesup, La Porte
City, Hudson, Sumner, Parkersburg, Denver, Reinbeck, Clarksville,
Tripoli, Shell Rock, Dike, Greene, Elk Run Heights, Waterloo
Municipal Airport and Crossroads Mall.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 700 PM CDT for
central, north central and northeastern Iowa.

LAT...LON 4230 9269 4291 9303 4291 9208 4230 9206
TIME...MOT...LOC 1704Z 221DEG 20KT 4291 9298 4276 9278 4250 9264 4230
9255

Podrazik

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1208 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1203 PM     HAIL             GRAFTON                 43.33N 93.06W
07/09/2020  E0.70 INCH       WORTH              IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
101 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1250 PM     TSTM WND GST     WATERLOO REGIONAL AIRPO 42.56N 92.40W
07/09/2020  M70 MPH          BLACK HAWK         IA   ASOS

&&

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
122 PM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0113 PM     TSTM WND GST     WATERLOO REGIONAL AIRPO 42.56N 92.40W
07/09/2020  M69 MPH          BLACK HAWK         IA   ASOS

&&

JAZ