Severe Thunderstorm Warning 94, NWS Des Moines, IA

667 
WWUS53 KDMX 091629
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
1129 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

IAC081-091638-
/O.EXP.KDMX.SV.W.0094.000000T0000Z-200709T1630Z/
Hancock IA-
1129 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN HANCOCK COUNTY
WILL EXPIRE AT 1130 AM CDT...
        
The storm which prompted the warning has moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.  However heavy rain
is still possible with this thunderstorm.

Remember, a Severe Thunderstorm Warning still remains in effect for
northern Hancock County until 1145 AM CDT. 

LAT...LON 4302 9350 4291 9350 4291 9370 4292 9372
      4306 9370
TIME...MOT...LOC 1628Z 187DEG 33KT 4306 9357 

$$

Podrazik

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
610 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

...Updated for 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Wednesday/
Issued at 301 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Messaging Highlights:

1) Thunderstorms are likely over portions of Iowa this morning
through tonight. A few storms could be strong to severe.

2) After a mainly dry day on Friday, warm and humid weather will
return this weekend and into next week. There will be several
chances for mainly overnight thunderstorm complexes, the first
being Friday night into Saturday.

Today through Tonight: Forecast Confidence: Medium

Early Morning -- as expected, the MCS over srn Nebraska with a
history of severe winds continues to accelerate sewd into KS/MO.
The far southwestern counties in our CWA could be clipped by
storms or outflow prior to 5-6am. At this point, the threat for
severe winds appear low but we could see winds in the 40-50mph
range. The convection further north over nern Neb and srn SD
appears to be weakening per lightning trends and warming cloud
tops.

Rest of Today -- the sfc trough/cold front and remnant MCV is
expected to move slowly across Iowa late this morning into the
afternoon. The latest short range guidance still suggests at least
moderate destabilization to occur with MLCAPE values of 1500-3000
J/kg after 18z. The 00Z CAM/HREF guidance appears to have a decent
handle on the evolution which shows scattered storms developing
between 11am-2pm. Deep layer shear still appears modest /20-30kts/
although there could be some local augmentation by the above
mentioned MCV - so a combination of multicell storms with perhaps
some embedded supercells are possible. Thus, damaging wind and
large hail will be possible with any more vigorous storms. Will
also need to watch the tornado potential closely. Moderate 0-3km
CAPE, low LCLs, and the possibility of locally backed winds and
enhanced low level SRH will be possible in the vicinity of the
front/MCV. Based on the latest HREF, the greatest tornado threat
appears be located across east-central to northeastern Iowa. In
terms of rainfall, abundant low level moisture and PWATs over 1.5"
could lead to some efficient rain producers. Unfortunately,
heavier rainfall amounts could again be feast or famine. Areas
east of I-35 and north of I-80 appear to have the highest
potential for seeing at least pockets of heavy rainfall, and
unfortunately the driest areas in the west/southwest could miss
out yet again. A few storms could linger early Thursday night
before moving eastward out of the area. Temps today will be a bit
cooler than previous days with highs in the mid 80s due to more
cloud cover and the potential for rain-cooled air. Lows tonight
should be a bit cooler with readings in the 60s.

Friday through Sunday: Forecast Confidence: Medium

A dry day is expected on Friday as sfc high pressure moves back in
area and weak subsidence occurs in the wake of the system. With
mostly sunny skies, highs should again rebound into the upper 80s
to near 90F.

On Friday night into early Saturday, a fast moving shortwave is
expected to top the building upper ridge over the southwest US.
This wave is expected to initiate scattered severe storms over
the Dakotas which will then morph into a nocturnal MCS somewhere
over the Midwest. A majority of the deterministic models dive the
MCS swd along or west of the Missouri River - reference the SPC
Day 2 outlook. However, depending on how the instability and
capping evolve, the MCS could move a couple hundred miles east or
west. At this point, have chance type PoPs in the forecast, and
will await future model runs to fine tune this forecast.

Remainder of the weekend looks mainly dry, with just low end PoPs
on Saturday. Temps should remain warm in the mid-upper 80s with
lows in the 60s to near 70F.

Extended - Monday thru Wednesday: Forecast Confidence: Low/Medium

Little change in overall thinking into next week with a strong
upper high/anticyclone becoming re-established over the western
and central US, and occasional shortwave energy traversing the
northern tier of US. This will continue to favor above normal
temperatures over the Midwest and Iowa - with occasional chances
for ridge runner thunderstorms complexes. Currently, have highs in
the upper 80s to low 90s next week, but there is the possibility
this is too cool. Unfortunately, these hot temps could exacerbate
the developing dryness/drought.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning/
Issued at 558 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

Scattered thunderstorms are ongoing across portions of NW IA this
morning and this activity is gradually expected to push ewd across
forecast area this afternoon. Highest confidence of storms will be
across eastern IA, including KMCW/KALO/KOTM where a TEMPO group
was included to provide the window of highest likelihood. While
conditions will be primarily VFR, there could be brief periods of
restrictions to ceiling/visibility. At KFOD/KDSM, confidence in
TSTM occurrence at the terminal is lower so only included VCTS
attm. Winds today will favor a southerly component this morning,
but will switch out of the N/NW this afternoon behind the front.
VFR conditions should prevail overnight, although will need to
watch for patchy fog development in/near areas of rainfall.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Fowle
AVIATION...Fowle

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
440 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

IAZ006-007-016-017-025>028-036>039-049-050-100945-
Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-
Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Marshall-Tama-
440 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is a slight risk of severe thunderstorms across the region
mainly late morning into the afternoon hours. Damaging winds and
brief heavy rainfall will be the main threats. There is also a
risk for isolated tornadoes.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are back in the forecast Saturday with a few strong
to severe storms possible. There are other low chances for storms
around Tuesday and Wednesday with the severe weather potential
better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed from midday today into the afternoon and
then possibly again this weekend.

IAZ004-005-015-023-024-034-035-046>048-058>062-071>075-082>086-
093>097-100945-
Emmet-Kossuth-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Humboldt-Calhoun-Webster-
Greene-Boone-Story-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Adair-
Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-
Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
440 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

There is a marginal risk of severe thunderstorms across the
region late this morning into the afternoon hours. Damaging winds
and brief heavy rainfall will be the main threats. There is also
a risk of an isolated tornado generally along and east of Interstate
35.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are back in the forecast Saturday with a few strong
to severe storms possible. There are other low chances for storms
around Tuesday and Wednesday with the severe weather potential
better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters may be needed from midday today into the afternoon and
then possibly again this weekend.

IAZ033-044-045-057-070-081-092-100945-
Sac-Crawford-Carroll-Audubon-Cass-Adams-Taylor-
440 AM CDT Thu Jul 9 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Non-severe thunderstorms are possible this morning through noon
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday

Thunderstorms are back in the forecast Saturday with a few strong
to severe storms possible. There are other low chances for storms
around Tuesday and Wednesday with the severe weather potential
better determined in the coming days.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected today but may be needed this
weekend.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1041 AM CDT THU JUL 9 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1027 AM     TSTM WND DMG     ALGONA                  43.07N 94.23W
07/09/2020                   KOSSUTH            IA   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREES DOWN IN ALGONA.

&&

JAZ