Severe Thunderstorm Warning 154, NWS Des Moines, IA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
930 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

.UPDATE...
Issued at 929 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Line of severe convection moving into west-central Iowa continues
to intensify this morning. Plenty of instability out of ahead of
this line and judging by the previous wind reports, there is a
well established cold pool. Downdraft CAPE ranges from 1000-1500
J/kg with effective shear 30-40 knots in the vicinity of the
convection. Further east however, the 0-6km shear is currently not
conducive for sustainable strong storms as it is barely 25 knots
as far east as Interstate 35. The outflow from this storm has been
producing severe wind gusts in the southwest part of the state
and appears the outflow remains connected with the main convection
in Crawford County. Expecting the Des Moines Metro to get
impacted by this line b/t 11 AM to 12 PM and potentially with
severe winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Sunday/
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

We are anticipating another active morning across portions of the
forecast area as an approaching shortwave trough and associated
surface front trigger convective development. As of 07z radar
returns were quite isolated with small convective complexes noted
in northeast Nebraska and near the Twin Cities. Hi-res models
initiate more thunderstorm activity in the next few hours as
deeper kinematic ascent overspreads the area. Favored corridor
this morning continues to be northern Iowa, although convective
evolution remains in question especially given the poor
performance of the hi-res model suite last night. Sluggish
progression of the upper wave keeps some degree of kinematic and
thermal support for ascent over the area through much of the day,
so expecting additional showers and storms along and behind a
southerly sagging cold front. Hi-res models vary from isolated to
widespread precip, so potential rainfall coverage and amounts are
tough to pinpoint. Ample surface instability builds for a few
strong to severe storms along the front later this afternoon and
evening, mainly south of I-80. The corridor of stronger winds
aloft lags behind the frontal boundary and limits deep layer
shear, but should still be strong enough to support some organized
updrafts capable of large hail and strong winds. It is worth
noting that a faster frontal progression would push the threat
south of the state border, but that hinges on the extent morning
convection augments the cold front.

Precip chances slowly wane across southern Iowa Monday night,
giving way to a mainly dry Tuesday as a surface high pressure
tracks through the state. Forecast is somewhat muddled over mid to
late week. Zonal flow aloft eventually becomes southwesterly as a
large trough drops into the northern Rockies. Models show
multiple weak shortwaves within the mean flow crossing the region,
but provide little agreement on timing/location. Favored areas of
ascent and surface convergence are also rather nebulous, which
makes it difficult to improve on the broad brushed low chance PoPs
in the latest NBM output. Ensemble data continues to cluster
highest precip chances around Thursday, but confidence in any sort
of widespread precip event is low at this time. High temperatures
remain seasonal in the 80s through most of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning/
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MVFR cigs and tsra associated with a cold front passage are the
main forecast challenge through the current TAF period. MVFR cigs
currently stretch from KFOD to KMCW, ahead of tsra activity moving
out of SD. This is expected to impact terminals in north central
Iowa by mid to late morning. Confidence decreases further south
toward KDSM, but model guidance suggests tsra holds off until late
morning or afternoon. VFR conditions expected to prevail across
the area by late this evening into the overnight hours.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

UPDATE...Podrazik
DISCUSSION...Martin
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
902 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-084>086-111415-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Lucas-Monroe-
Wapello-
902 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected this morning and afternoon.
The storms are likely to be severe with damaging winds. A few
storms may also produce tornadoes along with some hail and brief
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periodic thunderstorms chances continue though the second half of
the week, however at this time the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

IAZ004>007-015>017-111415-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
902 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Thunderstorms are forecast today as a cool front moves across the
state. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds and some
hail the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periodic thunderstorms chances continue though the second half of
the week, however at this time the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

IAZ081>083-092>097-111415-
Adams-Union-Clarke-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
902 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Thunderstorms are forecast today as a cool front moves across the
state. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds and some
hail the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periodic thunderstorms chances continue though the second half of
the week, however at this time the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

REV

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1208 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1200 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 S CHELSEA             41.88N 92.39W
08/10/2020  E90 MPH          TAMA               IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1216 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1147 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW UNION             42.24N 93.09W
08/10/2020                   HARDIN             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DAMAGE TO BARNS AND ROOFS.

&&

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1218 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1151 AM     TSTM WND GST     2 S MARSHALLTOWN        42.01N 92.91W
08/10/2020  E95 MPH          MARSHALL           IA   STORM CHASER

            ESTIMATED WINDS OF 90 TO 100 MPH.

1151 AM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S MARSHALLTOWN        42.01N 92.91W
08/10/2020                   MARSHALL           IA   STORM CHASER

            SEVERAL LARGE SECTIONS OF ROOFS BLOWN OFF
            BUILDINGS ALONG OLD HIGHWAY 30 ON SOUTH PART
            OF MARSHALLTOWN.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1219 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1220 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1210 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 SSW GRINNELL          41.70N 92.74W
08/10/2020                   POWESHIEK          IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SEMI BLOWN OVER ON I-80 JUST WEST OF THE
            GRINNELL INTERCHANGE.

&&

JAZ

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1222 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1219 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 S GRUNDY CENTER       42.34N 92.77W
08/10/2020  E60 MPH          GRUNDY             IA   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ALONG WITH PEA SIZED HAIL.

&&

JAZ