Severe Thunderstorm Warning 138, NWS Des Moines, IA

382 
WWUS53 KDMX 101457
SVSDMX

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
957 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

IAC009-027-047-073-077-101515-
/O.CON.KDMX.SV.W.0138.000000T0000Z-200810T1515Z/
Greene IA-Guthrie IA-Audubon IA-Crawford IA-Carroll IA-
957 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1015 AM CDT
FOR GREENE...GUTHRIE...AUDUBON...SOUTHEASTERN CRAWFORD AND CARROLL
COUNTIES...

At 957 AM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles south of Lake City to Coon Rapids to 12 miles
southeast of Audubon, moving east at 60 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Carroll, Jefferson, Audubon, Guthrie Center, Manning, Coon Rapids,
Glidden, Panora, Lake Panorama, Exira, Elk Horn, Scranton, Arcadia,
Breda, Bayard, Casey, Churdan, Templeton, Menlo and Kimballton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 4221 9510 4221 9433 4150 9440 4150 9450
      4157 9504 4160 9504 4160 9509 4186 9509
      4187 9516
TIME...MOT...LOC 1457Z 289DEG 50KT 4218 9469 4187 9469 4155 9481 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Donavon

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
620 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Sunday/
Issued at 245 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

We are anticipating another active morning across portions of the
forecast area as an approaching shortwave trough and associated
surface front trigger convective development. As of 07z radar
returns were quite isolated with small convective complexes noted
in northeast Nebraska and near the Twin Cities. Hi-res models
initiate more thunderstorm activity in the next few hours as
deeper kinematic ascent overspreads the area. Favored corridor
this morning continues to be northern Iowa, although convective
evolution remains in question especially given the poor
performance of the hi-res model suite last night. Sluggish
progression of the upper wave keeps some degree of kinematic and
thermal support for ascent over the area through much of the day,
so expecting additional showers and storms along and behind a
southerly sagging cold front. Hi-res models vary from isolated to
widespread precip, so potential rainfall coverage and amounts are
tough to pinpoint. Ample surface instability builds for a few
strong to severe storms along the front later this afternoon and
evening, mainly south of I-80. The corridor of stronger winds
aloft lags behind the frontal boundary and limits deep layer
shear, but should still be strong enough to support some organized
updrafts capable of large hail and strong winds. It is worth
noting that a faster frontal progression would push the threat
south of the state border, but that hinges on the extent morning
convection augments the cold front.

Precip chances slowly wane across southern Iowa Monday night,
giving way to a mainly dry Tuesday as a surface high pressure
tracks through the state. Forecast is somewhat muddled over mid to
late week. Zonal flow aloft eventually becomes southwesterly as a
large trough drops into the northern Rockies. Models show
multiple weak shortwaves within the mean flow crossing the region,
but provide little agreement on timing/location. Favored areas of
ascent and surface convergence are also rather nebulous, which
makes it difficult to improve on the broad brushed low chance PoPs
in the latest NBM output. Ensemble data continues to cluster
highest precip chances around Thursday, but confidence in any sort
of widespread precip event is low at this time. High temperatures
remain seasonal in the 80s through most of the forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Tuesday morning/
Issued at 617 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

MVFR cigs and tsra associated with a cold front passage are the
main forecast challenge through the current TAF period. MVFR cigs
currently stretch from KFOD to KMCW, ahead of tsra activity moving
out of SD. This is expected to impact terminals in north central
Iowa by mid to late morning. Confidence decreases further south
toward KDSM, but model guidance suggests tsra holds off until late
morning or afternoon. VFR conditions expected to prevail across
the area by late this evening into the overnight hours.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

DISCUSSION...Martin
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
902 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

IAZ023>028-033>039-044>050-057>062-070>075-084>086-111415-
Pocahontas-Humboldt-Wright-Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Sac-Calhoun-
Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Audubon-Guthrie-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-
Poweshiek-Cass-Adair-Madison-Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Lucas-Monroe-
Wapello-
902 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Severe thunderstorms are expected this morning and afternoon.
The storms are likely to be severe with damaging winds. A few
storms may also produce tornadoes along with some hail and brief
heavy rainfall.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periodic thunderstorms chances continue though the second half of
the week, however at this time the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

IAZ004>007-015>017-111415-
Emmet-Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Palo Alto-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-
902 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Thunderstorms are forecast today as a cool front moves across the
state. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds and some
hail the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periodic thunderstorms chances continue though the second half of
the week, however at this time the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

IAZ081>083-092>097-111415-
Adams-Union-Clarke-Taylor-Ringgold-Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
902 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Thunderstorms are forecast today as a cool front moves across the
state. A few storms could be severe with damaging winds and some
hail the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Periodic thunderstorms chances continue though the second half of
the week, however at this time the severe threat is uncertain.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

REV