River Flood Warning 3, NWS Des Moines, IA

163 
WGUS83 KDMX 290227
FLSDMX

Flood Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
927 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...The Flood Warning has been cancelled for all or portions of the 
following rivers in Iowa...Des Moines River...

  Affecting the following counties in Iowa...Davis...Wapello
  
River forecasts include observed precipitation, as well as expected 
precipitation over the next 48 hours.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

If you encounter a flooded area, turn around and find an alternate 
route. Turn around, do not drown.

More information--including impact statements and crest 
histories--is available on the Web at...  www.weather.gov/desmoines 
Click on the Rivers and Lakes link.

&&

IAC051-179-290257-
/O.CAN.KDMX.FL.W.0003.000000T0000Z-200331T1500Z/
/OTMI4.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
927 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...Flood Warning is cancelled...

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Des Moines River at Ottumwa, or From Middle Avery Creek near 
  Chillicothe...to Eldon.
* At 9:20 PM Saturday the stage was 11.1 feet, or 0.4 feet below 
  Flood Stage.
* Forecast...crested below Flood Stage at 11.2 feet. Will continue to 
  fall to 11.1 feet by Monday morning.
* Impact...At 11.0 feet, Bear Creek reaches bankfull.

&&

LAT...LON 4087 9221 4108 9257 4111 9251 4092 9220
      4087 9221                       

$$

Ansorge

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
642 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

.DISCUSSION.../Today through Friday/
Issued at 357 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Very active 18-24 hours ahead as upper system in the southwest
United States ejects towards Iowa and closes off into tonight.
Currently, strong warm advection into central and southern Iowa
with 850mb front lifting into the state. Scattered convection has
developed across the southern Iowa on the instability gradient as
it lifts north into the state. Some of the stronger storms are
marginally severe with quarter hail along with heavy rainfall.
This initial activity is expected to pull quickly eastward through
sunrise as the low level jet veers into Illinois. The moist low
levels and light surface winds have also led to widespread dense
fog along and south of Highway 30 as well early this morning and
have issued a Dense Fog Advisory through 9 AM.

A secondary surge of warm advection and theta-e advection is
expected mid morning ahead of the main wave with another round of
showers and thunderstorms spreading north across the forecast area.
This activity will be on the nose of the warm sector which will lift
rapidly into southern and central Iowa approaching the I-80 corridor
by 18Z. Meanwhile, a dryline/trof axis will be approaching from the
southwest and pushing northeast through the state during the
afternoon. This is a climatologically favorable setup for a threat
of tornadoes in Iowa this time of year and will need to be monitored
closely as the day progresses.  These events often have little
insolation, maybe an hour or so but with steep lapse rates and
backed winds ahead of the dryline/trof, these low topped storms
really pack a punch. The window will be relatively narrow this
afternoon as the dryline rapidly pinches off the warm sector across
the forecast area but the soundings in the warm sector are rather
impressive.  The 21Z HRRR sounding at KALO has a 0-3KM helicity of
583 m2/s2 with a CAPE in that layer of 140 J/KG so parcels should
get a decent low level acceleration. The narrow enhanced outlook
into the east central forecast area is well placed and could even
see it go to a higher category should the forecast pan out. All
persons and government agencies with activities in central Iowa
today, especially east of I-35 should pay close attention for the
potential of tornadoes as the afternoon approaches.

The threat is expected to diminish quickly by the evening as the
dryline/trof passes completely across the forecast area.  Meanwhile,
strong southwest winds are expected in southern Iowa behind the trof
axis and may approach advisory criteria and this will need to be
monitored.  In the far northwest, the deformation precipitation
associated with the system will be nearby with steady showers
through the day into the evening.  The surface low is forecast to
pass through the forecast area this evening and exit to the
northeast overnight with central pressure dropping below 990mb.
Winds are expected to increase from the west to northwest overnight
with gusts and sustained winds approaching or exceeding advisory
criteria.  Have included an advisory in the far west into tonight
where the initial surge is expected and will let later forecast
expand as necessary.  Some snow may occur in the far north as the
cold advection increases, although any amounts would be rather
light, an inch or less.

Winds will remain strong into Sunday as the system slowly pulls away
although temperatures are forecast to remain near normal despite the
cold advection.  The next system approaches Monday night into
Tuesday, although the bulk of moisture and forcing remain south of
the state.  A quick moving system is forecast to bring some light
precipitation to the state on Wednesday but amounts are expected to
be light.  Temperatures are expected to be at or above normal early
in the week but falling below normal by the end as northwest flow
aloft develops.

&&

.AVIATION.../For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning/
Issued at 642 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

Generally poor aviation conditions for much of the forecast with
low ceilings and poor visibilities this morning. Strong to severe
thunderstorms are expected into this afternoon and early evening.
Strong winds fields are also expected later this afternoon into
the overnight with surface gusts of up to 45kts at times
overnight.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Dense Fog Advisory until 9 AM CDT this morning for IAZ046>050-
058>062-071>075-081>086-092>097.

Wind Advisory from 10 PM this evening to 4 AM CDT Sunday for
IAZ004-015-023-033-034-044>046-057-058-070-071-081-092.

&&

DISCUSSION...Cogil
AVIATION...Cogil

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

IAZ047>050-059>062-072>075-082>086-093>097-290830-
Boone-Story-Marshall-Tama-Dallas-Polk-Jasper-Poweshiek-Madison-
Warren-Marion-Mahaska-Union-Clarke-Lucas-Monroe-Wapello-Ringgold-
Decatur-Wayne-Appanoose-Davis-
330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A Dense Fog Advisory has been issued for the area through this
morning. Please refer to weather.gov/desmoines for further
details.

Thunderstorms are likely this morning and into the afternoon
hours. A few of these storms may be strong over portions of
southern and into eastern Iowa. Hail and damaging wind gusts are
the primary threats, although a tornado cannot be ruled out during
the afternoon.

Strong winds develop today into tonight. Gusts of 35 to 45 mph
are possible at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

IAZ005>007-016-017-024>028-035>039-290830-
Kossuth-Winnebago-Worth-Hancock-Cerro Gordo-Humboldt-Wright-
Franklin-Butler-Bremer-Webster-Hamilton-Hardin-Grundy-Black Hawk-
330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

Thunderstorms are likely this morning and into the afternoon
hours. A few of these storms may be strong over portions of
southern and into eastern Iowa. Hail and damaging wind gusts are
the primary threats, although a tornado cannot be ruled out during
the afternoon.

Strong winds develop Saturday into Saturday night. Gusts of 35+ mph
are possible at times.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

IAZ004-015-023-033-034-044>046-057-058-070-071-081-092-290830-
Emmet-Palo Alto-Pocahontas-Sac-Calhoun-Crawford-Carroll-Greene-
Audubon-Guthrie-Cass-Adair-Adams-Taylor-
330 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central Iowa.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the area for late tonight
through early Sunday. Please refer to weather.gov/desmoines for
further details.

Thunderstorms are likely this morning and into the afternoon
hours. A few of these storms may be strong.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

A Wind Advisory has been issued for the area through early Sunday.
Please refer to weather.gov/desmoines for further details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed today.

Hagenhoff

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Des Moines IA
456 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

IAZ075-281015-
Mahaska IA-
456 AM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

...Up to Nickel Hail North of Oskaloosa...

At 455 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Oskaloosa, moving northeast at 55 mph.

Nickel size hail will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
North and northeast of Oskaloosa.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4130 9272 4138 9277 4151 9241 4136 9241
TIME...MOT...LOC 0955Z 246DEG 48KT 4137 9265

Cogil