Special Weather Statement, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

MSAS showing weak surface low pressure centered over the western
Oklahoma panhandle with attendant cold front from wet of Syracuse
into southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Also a dryline and warmfront
extended south from near LBL into the Texas Panhandle. Ahead and
east of these features has been a stubborn field of stratus clouds
that has created a large temperatures difference from the upper 60s
to low 70s under the cloud cover and contrasted by low 80s over the
Sunny Syracuse-Johnson-Elkhart area. Latest HRRR initiate these
convective elements at 21 UTC along the cold front along the highway
25 corridor with organized elements reaching the highway 83 corridor
by around 10 pm. In addition to a hail and 60-70 mph wind threat, a
sizable area of 1 to 2 inch rain is likely with more localized areas
of 3 and 4 inches just as likely.  Increased Pops over the area as
widespread trailing stratiform precipitation is likely beyond
midnight even as the overall severe risk should be decreasing.
Uncertainty with respect to  and additional marginally elevated
severe pulse hail storms in the southeast will revolve around mid
level wave that will be moving into the area during the overnight
hours. Lows are forecast from the mid 50s west to more mild
summerlike 60s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

Potential exists for thunderstorms to be ongoing early Friday
morning across the eastern and especially south central Kansas
counties as models show a mid level trough/weak pvu anomaly moving
though the area with still conditionally unstable air. This
should clear out though with sky becoming sunny area wide by
afternoon resulting in temperatures warming into the 80s all the
way to Hays. It will likely remain inactive later in the day
Friday with respect to convection, however the 850 wind field
transitions from weak easterly flow Friday to veering and
increasing winds though Saturday, with stronger south winds, and
better moisture transport ahead of a dryline for Saturday late
afternoon and Saturday evening. As a result , convection is
possible Saturday across the eastern counties. The southwest winds
will make temperatures much warmer on Saturday, before a cold
front tempers highs and focuses severe weather chances once again
along a southward propagating cold front through Sunday night.
This will setup Monday to likely be cooler and cloudy and perhaps
showery with diurnal thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

The main concern for the TAF forecast is +TSRA for the terminals this
evening. All modes of severe threats will be possible with this activity...
landspouts, large hail, and severe outflow winds of 50+kt. Mid to late
evening is the most likely time of impacts to the terminals. This activity
will eventually evolve into a line and move out of the terminal space
by 06Z. Tranquil weather is expected thereafter. With continued moisture
advection, MVFR cigs may be possible once again by 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  81  59  91 /  60  20   0   0
GCK  53  81  56  91 /  80  10   0   0
EHA  54  84  56  91 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  54  83  58  93 /  50  20   0   0
HYS  57  80  56  88 /  80  20  10  10
P28  61  81  61  90 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
345 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
345 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020 /245 AM MDT Thu May 21 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms late today and
early tonight. The main hazards will be hail 2 inches and larger,
strong damaging winds greater up to 70 mph and periods of heavy
rainfall. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday
night. Large hail and periods of heavy rainfall currently appear
to be the main hazards from these storms.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 4 pm, especially south
of a Garden City to Dodge City line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
956 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ031-045-046-065-220345-
Rush KS-Pawnee KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
956 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN NESS...NORTHWESTERN
PAWNEE...RUSH AND EASTERN ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 955 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 8 miles south of Zurich to near Antonino to 11
miles northwest of Gray. Movement was northeast at 35 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, La Crosse, Victoria, Walker, Catherine, Otis, Bison,
Schoenchen, Rush Center, Liebenthal, Timken, Alexander, Emmeram,
Munjor, Loretta, Nekoma, Hargrave, Pfeifer, Toulon and Shaffer.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
south central and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3835 9904 3830 9969 3881 9929 3913 9929
      3913 9904
TIME...MOT...LOC 0255Z 242DEG 32KT 3911 9939 3880 9939 3829 9976

Tatro

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1016 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ063-077-220345-
Gray KS-Finney KS-
1016 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
FINNEY...AND NORTHERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1045 PM CDT...

At 1016 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ingalls, moving northeast at 30 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Cimarron, Pierceville, Ingalls and Charleston.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 AM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3774 10065 3774 10072 3800 10074 3800 10023
      3783 10022 3773 10023 3773 10065
TIME...MOT...LOC 0316Z 240DEG 24KT 3790 10042

Tatro

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