Severe Thunderstorm Warning 40, NWS Dodge City, KS

868 
WWUS53 KDDC 220315
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1015 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSC067-069-081-119-175-189-220330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0040.000000T0000Z-200522T0330Z/
Seward KS-Grant KS-Meade KS-Stevens KS-Gray KS-Haskell KS-
1015 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM CDT
FOR SEWARD...SOUTHEASTERN GRANT...NORTHWESTERN MEADE...EASTERN
STEVENS...SOUTHERN GRAY AND HASKELL COUNTIES...

At 1015 PM CDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles southwest of Ingalls to 6 miles south of Tice
to near Hugoton, moving southeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect wind damage to 
         roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Liberal, Hugoton, Sublette, Satanta, Montezuma, Kismet, Moscow,
Copeland, Ryus, Missler, Tice, Cave, Hayne, Woods, The Haggard Elev
and Plains.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

&&

LAT...LON 3703 10129 3731 10138 3755 10111 3757 10103
      3773 10071 3773 10022 3736 10033 3707 10084
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 297DEG 15KT 3774 10050 3743 10072 3721 10129 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

UMSCHEID

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
555 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...updated aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

MSAS showing weak surface low pressure centered over the western
Oklahoma panhandle with attendant cold front from wet of Syracuse
into southwest Nebraska this afternoon. Also a dryline and warmfront
extended south from near LBL into the Texas Panhandle. Ahead and
east of these features has been a stubborn field of stratus clouds
that has created a large temperatures difference from the upper 60s
to low 70s under the cloud cover and contrasted by low 80s over the
Sunny Syracuse-Johnson-Elkhart area. Latest HRRR initiate these
convective elements at 21 UTC along the cold front along the highway
25 corridor with organized elements reaching the highway 83 corridor
by around 10 pm. In addition to a hail and 60-70 mph wind threat, a
sizable area of 1 to 2 inch rain is likely with more localized areas
of 3 and 4 inches just as likely.  Increased Pops over the area as
widespread trailing stratiform precipitation is likely beyond
midnight even as the overall severe risk should be decreasing.
Uncertainty with respect to  and additional marginally elevated
severe pulse hail storms in the southeast will revolve around mid
level wave that will be moving into the area during the overnight
hours. Lows are forecast from the mid 50s west to more mild
summerlike 60s across south central Kansas.

.LONG TERM...(Friday night through Thursday)
Issued at 226 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

Potential exists for thunderstorms to be ongoing early Friday
morning across the eastern and especially south central Kansas
counties as models show a mid level trough/weak pvu anomaly moving
though the area with still conditionally unstable air. This
should clear out though with sky becoming sunny area wide by
afternoon resulting in temperatures warming into the 80s all the
way to Hays. It will likely remain inactive later in the day
Friday with respect to convection, however the 850 wind field
transitions from weak easterly flow Friday to veering and
increasing winds though Saturday, with stronger south winds, and
better moisture transport ahead of a dryline for Saturday late
afternoon and Saturday evening. As a result , convection is
possible Saturday across the eastern counties. The southwest winds
will make temperatures much warmer on Saturday, before a cold
front tempers highs and focuses severe weather chances once again
along a southward propagating cold front through Sunday night.
This will setup Monday to likely be cooler and cloudy and perhaps
showery with diurnal thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 555 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

The main concern for the TAF forecast is +TSRA for the terminals this
evening. All modes of severe threats will be possible with this activity...
landspouts, large hail, and severe outflow winds of 50+kt. Mid to late
evening is the most likely time of impacts to the terminals. This activity
will eventually evolve into a line and move out of the terminal space
by 06Z. Tranquil weather is expected thereafter. With continued moisture
advection, MVFR cigs may be possible once again by 12Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  56  81  59  91 /  60  20   0   0
GCK  53  81  56  91 /  80  10   0   0
EHA  54  84  56  91 /  40  10   0   0
LBL  54  83  58  93 /  50  20   0   0
HYS  57  80  56  88 /  80  20  10  10
P28  61  81  61  90 /  70  60  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Sugden

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
345 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-221000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
345 AM CDT Thu May 21 2020 /245 AM MDT Thu May 21 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

There will be a chance for severe thunderstorms late today and
early tonight. The main hazards will be hail 2 inches and larger,
strong damaging winds greater up to 70 mph and periods of heavy
rainfall. An isolated tornado can not be ruled out.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Tornado: Limited risk
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Significant risk
* Non-thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for strong to severe thunderstorms Sunday
night. Large hail and periods of heavy rainfall currently appear
to be the main hazards from these storms.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Friday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be required after 4 pm, especially south
of a Garden City to Dodge City line.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
833 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             5 NW CAVE               37.40N 101.21W
05/21/2020  E2.00 INCH       GRANT              KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
844 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ043>045-063-220230-
Finney KS-Lane KS-Scott KS-Ness KS-
844 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN FINNEY...WESTERN
NESS... SOUTHEASTERN SCOTT...NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN...SOUTHERN
TREGO AND LANE COUNTIES UNTIL 930 PM CDT...

At 844 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Pendennis to near Dighton to 13 miles
south of Amy to near Holcomb. Movement was east at 35 mph.

Penny size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City, Holcomb, Dighton, Ransom, Utica, Alamota, Friend,
Beeler, Pendennis and Arnold.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3847 9993 3827 10020 3826 10023 3825 10023
      3801 10060 3794 10109 3825 10100 3845 10051
      3869 10035 3870 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 0144Z 264DEG 32KT 3872 10029 3846 10044 3828 10063
3805 10098

Tatro

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
853 PM CDT THU MAY 21 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0810 PM     HAIL             1 E SUBLETTE            37.48N 100.83W
05/21/2020  E2.50 INCH       HASKELL            KS   PUBLIC

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
923 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ030-031-044>046-220315-
Rush KS-Trego KS-Lane KS-Ellis KS-Ness KS-
923 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...NESS...
EASTERN TREGO...SOUTHEASTERN LANE...NORTHWESTERN RUSH AND WESTERN
ELLIS COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM CDT...

At 923 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 9 miles north of Ogallah to near Riga to near
Brownell to 8 miles southeast of Beeler to 15 miles northwest of
Kalvesta. Movement was east at 30 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 45 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Hays, Ellis, Ness City, Bazine, Ransom, McCracken, Ogallah,
Alexander, Brownell, Yocemento, Cedar Bluff, Beeler, Riga, Antonino
and Arnold.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern and west central Kansas.

LAT...LON 3883 9929 3855 9944 3830 9969 3827 9981
      3826 10047 3826 10048 3863 10005 3889 9986
      3913 9982 3913 9930
TIME...MOT...LOC 0223Z 277DEG 25KT 3913 9970 3888 9969 3860 9983 3834
10011 3825 10041

Tatro

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
926 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ063-064-077-220315-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-
926 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN FINNEY...
NORTHWESTERN HODGEMAN AND NORTHWESTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
CDT...

At 926 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 14 miles south of Alamota to 13 miles west of
Kalvesta to 13 miles north of Charleston to 7 miles north of
Pierceville. Movement was east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Garden City and Kalvesta.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3826 10002 3811 10014 3800 10026 3792 10042
      3796 10083 3807 10066 3813 10058 3826 10048
TIME...MOT...LOC 0226Z 287DEG 18KT 3827 10041 3812 10053 3806 10060
3799 10070

Tatro

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
936 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

KSZ063-076-077-220315-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Haskell KS-
936 PM CDT Thu May 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTH CENTRAL FINNEY...
NORTHWESTERN GRAY AND NORTHEASTERN HASKELL COUNTIES UNTIL 1015 PM
CDT...

At 936 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles east of Plymell, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Pierceville, Ingalls and Charleston.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 1000 PM CDT for
southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3771 10087 3796 10083 3792 10041 3773 10041
TIME...MOT...LOC 0236Z 261DEG 21KT 3779 10074

Tatro