Severe Thunderstorm Warning 199, NWS Dodge City, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
137 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

As of 18z today (Monday) a cold front was moving across the I-70
corridor as an upper level trough moved into extreme southwest
Kansas. Radar trends also showed some increased convection across
West Central Kansas where enhanced lift and increasing instability
were developing ahead of the upper wave and near the southward
moving surface boundary. Models earlier this Monday afternoon
continue to support some isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms near the southward moving cold front and ahead of
the upper level trough early this afternoon. The chance for
thunderstorms will improve after 4 pm as the area favorable for
further developing thunderstorms moves east of roughly HW283 given
the forecast increased CAPE and improving 0-6km shear. As
thunderstorms develop and move across south central and portions
of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into early evening a few
of the stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind
gusts of 60 to 65 mph along with hail up to the size of quarters.
The chance for thunderstorms will taper off after 03z this evening
as the upper level trough moves into central Kansas/central
Oklahoma and the surface cold front drops south into northwest
Oklahoma. As the thunderstorms taper off the skies will clear.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

NAM and GFS BUFR soundings show some low level moisture/clouds
along with some cooler air that will be filtering into southwest
Kansas behind the cold front early Tuesday morning. It does not
look like that if any low clouds do develop they will linger much
past late morning so following the general trend of the 900mb to
850mb temperatures and decreasing clouds during the day will be
staying close to the previous forecast with Highs on Tuesday
mainly ranging from the 90 to 95 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Tuesday night will be the next chance for convection across
portions of western Kansas as the next upper level trough exits
the Central Rockies and moves out into the West Central High
Plains. Scattered Thunderstorms will be possible by Tuesday
evening ahead of this upper wave near a surface boundary that will
be located across eastern Colorado. The thunderstorms that do
develop across eastern Colorado late day will move east Tuesday
night. If the NAM verifies it appears that best chance for
ongoing convection Tuesday night be across southwest Kansas based
on where the location of the 0-1km Theta-e ridge axis and
southeasterly flow along with the 850mb warm air advection
developing overnight ahead of the approaching upper level trough.
At this time it appears that an storm that does cross southwest or
west central Kansas Tuesday night will have the potential for
strong winds and possibly some hail.

For the last half of the work week the models remain in decent
agreement with an upper high redeveloping/retrograding into the
southwest United States near the four corners area. As this upper
high shifts west a westerly downslope flow will improve and based
on the warming trend advertised by the GFS and ECMWF it looks like
a warming trend still is on track for southwest Kansas the last
half of the work week. HIgh temperatures climbing back into the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees will be possible for much of
southwest Kansas from Wednesday through Friday. Precipitation
chances briefly shift north but as a northwest flow starts to
develop this weekend the chances for late day and overnight
convection will begin to improve. Also some cooler/more seasonal
temperatures may be returning to southwest Kansas late this
weekend period as a cold front takes aim at southwest Kansas

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

A surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas near Garden
City and Dodge City by 21z Today (Monday). This surface boundary
will then drop south into northern Oklahoma between 03z and 09z
Tuesday. As this surface boundary passes the winds will shift from
the south at 10 to 15 knots to the northeast. In addition to the
northeast winds developing behind this surface boundary there will
be a brief increase in low level moisture/clouds in the 1500 to
2500ft AGL level early this Tuesday morning. Scattered late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible along this
frontal boundary between 21z Monday and 03z Tuesday and ceilings
that will accompany these thunderstorms are expected to range from
6000 to 9000ft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  64  92  68 /  30  40  10  20
GCK  93  63  91  65 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  97  63  94  64 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  98  63  95  66 /  40  30   0  20
HYS  93  65  91  68 /  20  20  10  20
P28  99  68  94  71 /  40  50  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-111030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
527 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 /427 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon
along a slowly advancing cold front. A few of these storms could
become marginally severe, with mainly a damaging wind threat. Storms
will be slow-moving, so torrential rainfall rates will also be a hazard
through this evening.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
There will be another chance for strong or isolated severe thunderstorms
across far western Kansas Tuesday late afternoon and evening. Hot
temperatures will likely return later in the week as high pressure
aloft builds north toward Colorado and western Kansas.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
533 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0505 PM     HAIL             LA CROSSE               38.53N 99.31W
08/10/2020  E2.00 INCH       RUSH               KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

MLG

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSZ088-089-102300-
Clark KS-Comanche KS-
533 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN COMANCHE AND
SOUTHEASTERN CLARK COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM CDT...

At 532 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 7
miles southeast of Acres, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Acres.

LAT...LON 3700 9988 3710 9988 3714 9952 3700 9952
TIME...MOT...LOC 2232Z 271DEG 14KT 3702 9979

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
533 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSZ045-102300-
Ness KS-
533 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL NESS COUNTY UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 533 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ness City, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Ness City and Brownell.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3844 9996 3862 9996 3866 9974 3842 9974
TIME...MOT...LOC 2233Z 271DEG 14KT 3853 9987

TATRO

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
534 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSZ064-065-079-102300-
Hodgeman KS-Pawnee KS-Edwards KS-
534 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EAST CENTRAL HODGEMAN...
SOUTHWESTERN PAWNEE AND NORTHWESTERN EDWARDS COUNTIES UNTIL 600 PM
CDT...

At 534 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles south of Burdett, moving east at 15 mph.

Penny size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of east central
Hodgeman, southwestern Pawnee and northwestern Edwards Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3797 9958 3816 9958 3819 9933 3796 9933
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 271DEG 14KT 3807 9949

TATRO

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
535 PM CDT MON AUG 10 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     HAIL             3 NW LA CROSSE          38.56N 99.36W
08/10/2020  E1.75 INCH       RUSH               KS   PUBLIC

&&

JDF

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
537 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSZ063-064-077-078-102315-
Gray KS-Finney KS-Hodgeman KS-Ford KS-
537 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN FORD...EASTERN
FINNEY...WESTERN HODGEMAN AND NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 615 PM
CDT...

At 537 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 8
miles southeast of Kalvesta, moving east at 20 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts of 50 to 55 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jetmore.

LAT...LON 3783 10021 3803 10030 3819 9987 3793 9976
TIME...MOT...LOC 2237Z 251DEG 16KT 3797 10017

SPRINGER