Severe Thunderstorm Warning 190, NWS Dodge City, KS

429 
WWUS53 KDDC 102124
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
424 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSC025-102200-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0190.000000T0000Z-200810T2200Z/
Clark KS-
424 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM CDT
FOR SOUTHERN CLARK COUNTY...

At 424 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Acres, moving
northeast at 15 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and nickel size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Ashland, Englewood, Sitka and Acres. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9999 3708 10006 3730 9970 3700 9954
TIME...MOT...LOC 2124Z 240DEG 13KT 3710 9983 

HAIL...0.88IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

TATRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
137 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...Updated Short Term and Long Term Discussions...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Tuesday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

As of 18z today (Monday) a cold front was moving across the I-70
corridor as an upper level trough moved into extreme southwest
Kansas. Radar trends also showed some increased convection across
West Central Kansas where enhanced lift and increasing instability
were developing ahead of the upper wave and near the southward
moving surface boundary. Models earlier this Monday afternoon
continue to support some isolated to widely scattered
thunderstorms near the southward moving cold front and ahead of
the upper level trough early this afternoon. The chance for
thunderstorms will improve after 4 pm as the area favorable for
further developing thunderstorms moves east of roughly HW283 given
the forecast increased CAPE and improving 0-6km shear. As
thunderstorms develop and move across south central and portions
of southwest Kansas late this afternoon into early evening a few
of the stronger thunderstorms will be capable of producing wind
gusts of 60 to 65 mph along with hail up to the size of quarters.
The chance for thunderstorms will taper off after 03z this evening
as the upper level trough moves into central Kansas/central
Oklahoma and the surface cold front drops south into northwest
Oklahoma. As the thunderstorms taper off the skies will clear.
Lows tonight will be in the 60s.

NAM and GFS BUFR soundings show some low level moisture/clouds
along with some cooler air that will be filtering into southwest
Kansas behind the cold front early Tuesday morning. It does not
look like that if any low clouds do develop they will linger much
past late morning so following the general trend of the 900mb to
850mb temperatures and decreasing clouds during the day will be
staying close to the previous forecast with Highs on Tuesday
mainly ranging from the 90 to 95 degree range.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday night through Monday)
Issued at 128 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

Tuesday night will be the next chance for convection across
portions of western Kansas as the next upper level trough exits
the Central Rockies and moves out into the West Central High
Plains. Scattered Thunderstorms will be possible by Tuesday
evening ahead of this upper wave near a surface boundary that will
be located across eastern Colorado. The thunderstorms that do
develop across eastern Colorado late day will move east Tuesday
night. If the NAM verifies it appears that best chance for
ongoing convection Tuesday night be across southwest Kansas based
on where the location of the 0-1km Theta-e ridge axis and
southeasterly flow along with the 850mb warm air advection
developing overnight ahead of the approaching upper level trough.
At this time it appears that an storm that does cross southwest or
west central Kansas Tuesday night will have the potential for
strong winds and possibly some hail.

For the last half of the work week the models remain in decent
agreement with an upper high redeveloping/retrograding into the
southwest United States near the four corners area. As this upper
high shifts west a westerly downslope flow will improve and based
on the warming trend advertised by the GFS and ECMWF it looks like
a warming trend still is on track for southwest Kansas the last
half of the work week. HIgh temperatures climbing back into the
upper 90s to around 100 degrees will be possible for much of
southwest Kansas from Wednesday through Friday. Precipitation
chances briefly shift north but as a northwest flow starts to
develop this weekend the chances for late day and overnight
convection will begin to improve. Also some cooler/more seasonal
temperatures may be returning to southwest Kansas late this
weekend period as a cold front takes aim at southwest Kansas

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Tuesday afternoon)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

A surface cold front will move into southwest Kansas near Garden
City and Dodge City by 21z Today (Monday). This surface boundary
will then drop south into northern Oklahoma between 03z and 09z
Tuesday. As this surface boundary passes the winds will shift from
the south at 10 to 15 knots to the northeast. In addition to the
northeast winds developing behind this surface boundary there will
be a brief increase in low level moisture/clouds in the 1500 to
2500ft AGL level early this Tuesday morning. Scattered late
afternoon and evening thunderstorms will be possible along this
frontal boundary between 21z Monday and 03z Tuesday and ceilings
that will accompany these thunderstorms are expected to range from
6000 to 9000ft AGL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  95  64  92  68 /  30  40  10  20
GCK  93  63  91  65 /  20  20  10  20
EHA  97  63  94  64 /  20  20  20  20
LBL  98  63  95  66 /  40  30   0  20
HYS  93  65  91  68 /  20  20  10  20
P28  99  68  94  71 /  40  50  10  20

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Burgert
LONG TERM...Burgert
AVIATION...Burgert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
527 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-111030-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
527 AM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020 /427 AM MDT Mon Aug 10 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------
Scattered to numerous thunderstorms will develop later this afternoon
along a slowly advancing cold front. A few of these storms could
become marginally severe, with mainly a damaging wind threat. Storms
will be slow-moving, so torrential rainfall rates will also be a hazard
through this evening.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Limited risk
* Lightning: Limited risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------
There will be another chance for strong or isolated severe thunderstorms
across far western Kansas Tuesday late afternoon and evening. Hot
temperatures will likely return later in the week as high pressure
aloft builds north toward Colorado and western Kansas.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Tuesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Wednesday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Thursday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Friday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
258 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSZ064-077-102045-
Gray KS-Hodgeman KS-
258 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN FINNEY...SOUTHWESTERN
HODGEMAN AND NORTHEASTERN GRAY COUNTIES UNTIL 345 PM CDT...

At 258 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Kalvesta, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of eastern Finney,
southwestern Hodgeman and northeastern Gray Counties.

LAT...LON 3798 10032 3800 10028 3800 10023 3803 10023
      3816 10001 3799 9990 3793 10025
TIME...MOT...LOC 1958Z 246DEG 20KT 3799 10025

GERARD

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
346 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSZ043-062-063-102115-
Finney KS-Kearny KS-Scott KS-
346 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN KEARNY...
NORTHWESTERN FINNEY AND SOUTHERN SCOTT COUNTIES UNTIL 415 PM CDT...

At 346 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm 14
miles west of Friend, moving east at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Friend and Shallow Water.

LAT...LON 3825 10129 3826 10125 3826 10113 3831 10112
      3843 10081 3820 10071 3809 10123
TIME...MOT...LOC 2046Z 251DEG 20KT 3820 10117

SPRINGER

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
349 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

KSZ088-102115-
Clark KS-
349 PM CDT Mon Aug 10 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN CLARK COUNTY UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

At 349 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Englewood, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Nickel size hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Englewood and Acres.

LAT...LON 3700 10003 3706 10008 3722 9985 3707 9967
      3700 9979
TIME...MOT...LOC 2049Z 230DEG 24KT 3704 9995

SPRINGER