Severe Thunderstorm Warning 168, NWS Dodge City, KS

731 
WWUS53 KDDC 150248
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
948 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

KSC067-075-093-129-187-150330-
/O.CON.KDDC.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-200715T0330Z/
Morton KS-Hamilton KS-Kearny KS-Grant KS-Stanton KS-
948 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1030 PM
CDT/930 PM MDT/ FOR MORTON...HAMILTON...SOUTHWESTERN KEARNY...
NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND STANTON COUNTIES...

At 948 PM CDT/848 PM MDT/, severe thunderstorms were located along a
line extending from near Hartman to 11 miles northwest of Manter to
13 miles east of Campo, moving east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts and quarter size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Hail damage to vehicles is expected. Expect considerable 
         tree damage. Wind damage is also likely to mobile homes, 
         roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Ulysses, Elkhart, Syracuse, Johnson City, Manter, Coolidge, Kendall,
Richfield, The Saunders Elevator and Big Bow.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with these storms, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 3824 10205 3826 10160 3767 10126 3739 10153
      3739 10156 3736 10155 3699 10190 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0248Z 269DEG 41KT 3817 10214 3768 10197 3713 10233 

HAIL...1.00IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

SUGDEN

246 
WWUS53 KDDC 150327
SVSDDC

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
1027 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

KSC067-075-093-129-187-150337-
/O.EXP.KDDC.SV.W.0168.000000T0000Z-200715T0330Z/
Morton KS-Hamilton KS-Kearny KS-Grant KS-Stanton KS-
1027 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR MORTON...HAMILTON...
SOUTHWESTERN KEARNY...NORTHWESTERN GRANT AND STANTON COUNTIES WILL
EXPIRE AT 1030 PM CDT/930 PM MDT/...
            
The storms which prompted the warning have weakened below severe
limits, and no longer pose an immediate threat to life or property.
Therefore, the warning will be allowed to expire.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 300 AM CDT/200 AM
MDT/ for southwestern Kansas.

LAT...LON 3824 10205 3826 10160 3767 10126 3739 10153
      3739 10156 3736 10155 3699 10190 3699 10204
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 270DEG 41KT 3817 10162 3768 10145 3713 10182 

$$

SUGDEN

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
720 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

...Updated Aviation...

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

Confidence for thunderstorms expanding across the entire forecast
area this evening is much higher than last evening. There is already
an axis of 4500+ j/kg SBCAPE north of a warm front over NW Oklahoma
with overall weak shear across sw Kansas.  The CAMs begin developing
convection near the Sangre Cristos and Palmer Divide Areas around
19z slowly driving those discreet storms farther east through the
early evening and reaching our far southwest counties in the early
evening. The general trend of the CAMs would bring the MCS through
Garden City and Dodge City probably after about 3Z and through the
midnight timeframe, exiting the eastern counties after midnight.
Some risk of excessive rainfall exists as the models produce a swath
of 2 to as much as localized 4 inch bullseyes of rainfall oriented
southwest to northeast across much of the area that the latest 72
hours QPE indicated has been dry in recent days.

A synoptic cold front will dive south across the area following the
convection tonight, probably covering the area gain with low stratus
to start the early morning Wednesday.

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 311 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

A cooler day is expected on Wednesday owing to the previous night's
convective outflow and morning  clouds that will need to be eroded by
insolation. Clouds will gradually mix out during he day and surface
winds return to a southeast trajectory by Wednesday evening. The
overall trend of the models is for any convection on Wednesday
night to be nocturnal. Thursday evening looks like the last
opportunity for thunderstorms before the hotter regime returns to
the area for the weekend with a tough near the CO/KS and and the
return of southwest downslope winds.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Wednesday evening)
Issued at 652 PM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

High confidence exists that a thunderstorm complex will enter
Kansas after 1Z and move east behind a weak cold front. However,
confidence is low regarding exact placement and timing of storms.
Most guidance suggests LBL/DDC will see the highest chance of
storms in the 03-07Z time frame. In the wake of storms Wednesday
morning, light N/NE winds behind the cold front will likely bring
a stratus deck and low cigs/IFR to all TAF sites with steady
improvement after 15Z.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
DDC  65  85  66  94 /  80  10  10  10
GCK  63  84  65  93 /  70  10  20  10
EHA  63  87  66  94 /  50  20  30  20
LBL  65  89  67  95 /  60   0  20  10
HYS  63  83  64  91 /  70  10  10  10
P28  70  90  70  94 /  70  10  10  10

&&

.DDC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...Russell
LONG TERM...Russell
AVIATION...Springer

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Dodge City KS
450 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-151000-
Trego-Ellis-Scott-Lane-Ness-Rush-Hamilton-Kearny-Finney-Hodgeman-
Pawnee-Stafford-Stanton-Grant-Haskell-Gray-Ford-Edwards-Kiowa-
Pratt-Morton-Stevens-Seward-Meade-Clark-Comanche-Barber-
450 AM CDT Tue Jul 14 2020 /350 AM MDT Tue Jul 14 2020/

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of central...south
central...southwest and west central Kansas.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Day 1 Discussion
----------------

Locations along the Oklahoma border will see temperatures near or
around 100 degrees this afternoon with heat indices approaching
105 degrees. Thunderstorms are expected to develop over eastern
Colorado this afternoon and move into western Kansas this evening.
There will initially be a threat for hail up to golf ball size
along with damaging wind gusts to 60 mph. As the evening
progresses and the storms move farther east, the threat will shift
more toward high winds and locally heavy rain.

Day 1 Hazards
-------------
* Hail: Limited risk
* Thunderstorm wind damage: Elevated risk
* Flooding: Limited risk
* Lightning: Elevated risk
* Excessive heat: Significant risk

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Days 2-7 Discussion
-------------------

There will be a chance for thunderstorms over far southwest Kansas
late Wednesday afternoon and early Wednesday evening. There will
be a small risk for large hail and damaging winds.

Days 2-7 Hazards
----------------
* Wednesday
  - Flooding: Limited risk
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Severe thunderstorm: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Thursday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Limited risk

* Friday
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk
  - Fire weather: Elevated risk

* Saturday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Sunday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk
  - Non thunderstorm wind: Limited risk

* Monday
  - Lightning: Limited risk
  - Excessive heat: Elevated risk

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation will not be needed through tonight.

&&

For more details visit our webpage
https://weather.gov/crh/ghwo?sid=ddc