Severe Thunderstorm Warning 43, NWS Cheyenne, WY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
231 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

.Meso Update...
Issued at 1106 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Latest radar loop from KGJX was showing a strong line of
convection occurring just southwest of Grand Junction. Latest
satellite loop was showing a nice pocket of instability ahead of
that line of strong convection with around 60 degree dewpoints in
Grand Junction yielding to instability around 1000j/kg. In
addition, there is strong subsidence building behind that line
which is most likely resulting in 70+ mph wind gusts. That is
quite impressive for this region of the country where widespread
severe storms are a rarity. Before this cluster of convection
moves our direction we may see some intensification of this area
of showers in northern Colorado. The HREF is showing some
indication of this occurring during the next hour or so. This may
yield to some wind gusts up to 60 mph with these showers and
isolated thunderstorms at the leading edge of the 50 to 70kt 500mb
jet streak. However, our main concern appears to be with this
secondary line of convection currently moving through Grand
Junction. The latest HRRR has this secondary line moving into the
southwest portion of our area by 21z and pushes quickly northeast
into the Nebraska panhandle by 00Z. The main threat with this
line of storms will be 70+ mph winds with some pockets of hail. If
some of these storms do produce some larger hail then it may
create more damage especially if it is wind driven. A tornado
cannot be ruled with good 0-1km storm relativity helicity
100-200m^2/s^2 along the leading edge of this line, but it will
most likely be very brief. This line of convection should move out
of the area by 03Z.

Stay tuned to weather updates this afternoon. These storm motions
will be very quick at speeds of 50 to 70 mph, and things will
evolve quickly. When a warning is issued be sure to take
appropriate shelter.

.SHORT TERM...(Today & Tonight)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

A complicated forecast scenario across southeast Wyo & the western
Neb Panhandle over the next 12-24 hours. Main weather concerns are
dealing with the potential for widespread severe thunderstorms, as
well as strong (non-convective) winds across portions of the high-
plains. The latest GOES 16/17 Water Vapor satellite loop indicates
a vigorous mid & upper-level short wave currently moving ashore in
southern CA. Abundant moisture was seen streaming northward across
the 4 Corners & central Rockies, contributing to widespread shower
activity across western CO & WY. A few wind gusts of 60-70 MPH are
already being observed with some of these showers.

The aforementioned short wave is expected to continue to intensify
& lift rapidly northeastward over the next few hours with the main
trough axis reaching the WY/CO border by 18-21z. Prior to that, we
should see a gradual uptick in clouds as well as showers/storms as
leading H5 vort energy overspreads the region early this AM. There
continue to be concerns with the potential for early morning cloud
cover and precipitation to contaminate the warm sector and perhaps
limit potential instability. Even so, high-resolution models still
suggest a narrow window of opportunity for higher CAPE values near
2500 J/kg over mainly the western Nebraska Panhandle between 18z &
21z today with dew points in the lower 60s. It appears likely that
more robust convection will begin increasing in coverage along the
Laramie Range by 18z with significant dynamic forcing, with storms
rapidly spreading north & east as capping erodes. Southerly 500 mb
flow of 50+ knots will support quick storm motions along with good
chances for severe wind gusts. Deep & intense, unidirectional flow
aloft will provide effective vertical shear values up to 70 knots,
more than sufficient for organized storms w/ a mainly linear storm
mode given straight low-level hodographs. The orientation of low &
mid-level winds will also support substantial rear inflow and cold
pool development with multiple bowing line segments. Soundings are
showing up to 70 knots available within the lowest 5k-10k feet, so
significant (75+ MPH) thunderstorm wind gusts are possible through
the afternoon. This threat may come in multiple waves as mid-level
short wave energy pivots across the CWA through about 00z. SPC ENH
Risk for the northern NE Panhandle & SLGT for the remainder of the
CWA look reasonable, albeit still conditional based on instability
fields.

The threat for hail and/or tornadoes is less certain. Hail may not
become particularly large today given the linear storm mode, but a
small chance may exist for a couple of discrete supercells to take
shape ahead of the main storm complex. If these discrete storms do
develop while sufficient instability still exists (models continue
to show this decreasing rapidly through the afternoon), hail to 2"
in diameter would be possible given the available shear supporting
intense, rotating updrafts. Hail sizes may otherwise by limited by
competing updrafts w/ winds becoming a dominant threat w/ westward
extent as instability wanes. The tornado threat today is low given
limited hodograph curvature, but a non-zero threat does exist over
the Nebraska Panhandle with any discrete storms as soundings still
show some modest veering in the lowest kilometer w/ fairly intense
speed shear leading to strong 0-1 km SRH near the surface low. The
surface low should move into southwestern SD by 0z this evening w/
west to southwesterly surface winds developing in its wake, likely
contributing to decreasing convective activity toward evening.

In addition to the convective wind gust threat, a period of strong
winds may develop over the southern Nebraska Panhandle by early to
mid afternoon. An increasing surface pressure gradient, coupled w/
700-800 mb flow in excess of 55 knots and cooling thermal profiles
enhancing low-level mixing, could support high wind gusts where t-
storms are not present. There were two reasons for not issuing the
High Wind Warning with this package. 1) Clouds may yield lower LRs
than forecast soundings indicate, and 2) We fully anticipate winds
to be near severe criteria with afternoon convection, which should
be a higher overall hazard to life and property than general winds
today. The day shift will need to monitor this as well.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday - Friday)
Issued at 400 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Deep upper-level troughing over the northwestern CONUS will likely
continue to promote shower & thunderstorm chances through at least
Monday w/ a significant cold frontal passage on Monday expected to
plunge 700 mb temperatures into the single digits to around 0 C by
00z Tue. Lows Tuesday morning may be at or near freezing for areas
along/west of I-25 w/ even some light snow possible. Yes, you just
read that correctly for June 8th-9th. Starting to trend warmer and
drier mid/late week with a return to upper-level ridging.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday Afternoon)
Thunderstorms developing late this morning across western CO will be
the main aviation hazard heading into this afternoon as these storms
make their way towards area terminals. Wind gusts exceeding 50 kts
are a high possibility with these storms while elevated winds will
continue throughout the day and early evening. Storms will approach
KRWL as soon as 19z while eventually making their way into the
Nebraska Panhandle around 21-22z. VFR conditions are expected with
these storms as higher cloud bases expected, however temporary drops
in visibility will be possible in the heaviest TSTM activity.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 228 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Dry and windy conditions are expected on Sunday especially east
of the Laramie Range with gusts of 20 to 30 mph from the south-
southwest. Mixing heights will range from 10 to 12kft. Some
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms will also be
possible west of Laramie on Sunday afternoon. Cooler conditions
will take place on Monday and Tuesday as an upper level trof moves
through the area. This trof will bring some scattered rain
showers with even snow showers above 7000ft Monday night into
Tuesday morning.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CLH
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...MB
FIRE WEATHER...REC

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
624 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101>119-071230-
Dawes-Box Butte-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-Morrill-
Kimball County-Cheyenne-North Sioux-South Sioux-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Carbon County-
North Snowy Range Foothills-Southwest Carbon County-
Sierra Madre Range-Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-
Laramie Valley-South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
Central Laramie County-East Laramie County-
624 AM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...western Nebraska...east central Wyoming...south
central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

Numerous thunderstorms are expected across a large portion of the
area this afternoon. The most likely time frame for severe
thunderstorms will be between Noon and 6 PM today. Wind gusts to
70 MPH will be the primary hazard, although isolated hail up to
golf ball size is also possible especially over western Nebraska.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms will persist through
at least Monday afternoon. Chances for severe weather appear low
at this time.

A strong cold front will force overnight lows into the mid 30s
for areas along and west of Interstate 25 on Monday night.
Freezing temperatures are possible.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation may be necessary this afternoon.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
259 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0252 PM     TSTM WND GST     15 E SINCLAIR           41.74N 106.84W
06/06/2020  M59 MPH          CARBON             WY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WY15 14.5 E SINCLAIR
            (WYDOT).

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
305 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     TSTM WND GST     10 SSW HANNA            41.73N 106.65W
06/06/2020  M64 MPH          CARBON             WY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WY16 10.5 SW HANNA (WYDOT).

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
316 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0306 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 NW ELK MOUNTAIN       41.72N 106.45W
06/06/2020  M66 MPH          CARBON             WY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION WY19 2.9 NW ELK MOUNTAIN
            (WYDOT).

&&

AW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHEYENNE WY
320 PM MDT SAT JUN 6 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0312 PM     TSTM WND GST     1 NNW ARLINGTON         41.60N 106.21W
06/06/2020  M77 MPH          CARBON             WY   MESONET

            MESONET STATION KARL 0.6 NW ARLINGTON
            (WYDOT).

&&

AW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
324 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

NEZ019>021-054-055-WYZ107-108-118-119-062330-
Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-Morrill-Kimball County-Cheyenne-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
Including the cities of Scottsbluff, Gering, Harrisburg, Angora,
Bridgeport, Bayard, Redington, Kimball, Brownson, Sidney,
Wheatland, Guernsey, Torrington, Cheyenne, and Pine Bluffs
324 PM MDT Sat Jun 6 2020

Gusty south winds at 40 to 50 mph will persist across areas mainly
south of a Wheatland Wyoming to Alliance Nebraska line through 5
pm. A line of thunderstorms will be moving through Wyoming during
the next hour or so and could bring even stronger winds between 60
and 70 mph. This line of storms will start moving through
Nebraska between 5 and 8 pm.

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