Severe Thunderstorm Warning 33, NWS Cheyenne, WY

819 
WWUS55 KCYS 060051
SVSCYS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
651 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

NEC165-WYC027-060115-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200606T0115Z/
Sioux NE-Niobrara WY-
651 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN SIOUX AND EAST CENTRAL NIOBRARA COUNTIES...

At 650 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 18 miles south of
Redbird, or 18 miles northeast of Lusk, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Ping pong ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Sioux and east central Niobrara Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Cheyenne.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 10405 4300 10405 4301 10398 4293 10383
      4270 10414 4302 10444 4314 10426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0050Z 317DEG 23KT 4297 10422 

HAIL...1.50IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Braun

091 
WWUS55 KCYS 060057
SVSCYS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
657 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

NEC165-WYC027-060115-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200606T0115Z/
Sioux NE-Niobrara WY-
657 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN SIOUX AND EAST CENTRAL NIOBRARA COUNTIES...

At 657 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 18 miles northeast
of Lusk, moving southeast at 25 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Sioux and east central Niobrara Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Cheyenne.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 10405 4300 10405 4301 10398 4293 10383
      4270 10414 4302 10444 4314 10426
TIME...MOT...LOC 0057Z 317DEG 23KT 4293 10417 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Braun

013 
WWUS55 KCYS 060106
SVSCYS

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
706 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

NEC165-WYC027-060115-
/O.CON.KCYS.SV.W.0033.000000T0000Z-200606T0115Z/
Sioux NE-Niobrara WY-
706 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM MDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN SIOUX AND EAST CENTRAL NIOBRARA COUNTIES...

At 706 PM MDT, a severe thunderstorm was located 17 miles northwest
of Harrison, or 19 miles northeast of Lusk, moving southeast at 25
mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Emergency management.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

This severe thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
northwestern Sioux and east central Niobrara Counties.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
building.

To report severe weather contact your nearest law enforcement agency.
They will send your report to the National Weather Service office in
Cheyenne.

Continuous cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Move indoors immediately. Lightning is one of nature's leading
killers. Remember, if you can hear thunder, you are close enough to
be struck by lightning.

Torrential rainfall is occurring with this storm, and may lead to
flash flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4304 10405 4300 10405 4301 10398 4293 10383
      4274 10408 4296 10431 4308 10414
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 317DEG 23KT 4289 10411 

HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Braun

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
527 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday)
Issued at 224 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Current satellite imagery shows Cu developing along the Laramie
Range with a few weak echos being returned to radar. Scattered
showers will continue to develop later this afternoon and early
evening. Biggest issue will be which areas remain capped through
the afternoon. Latest SPC mesoanalysis shows 1000-1500 J/kg of
MLCAPE cutting across Converse Co. through the southern Nebraksa
Panhandle with 50 kts of effective shear over northern portions of
the CWA. However, MLCIN still needs to be overcome for storm
development. High-res models have been consistent to initiate a
few storms along the South Laramie Range that are short-lived. One
spot to watch tonight is up near Bill, WY where HRRR and NAMNest
runs have been initiating a stronger storm. A few attempts at
deep moist convection have been ongoing across Natrona Co. over
the last hour. Would expect more successful attempts over the next
two hours as more favorable instability is located farther east
along with impressive turning of winds with height supporting 0-3
km SRH around 200 m2/s2. Severe threat is possible tonight, but
should remain fairly isolated.

The upper level cutoff low off off the California Coast will
finally begin to propagate northeastward this evening. Large scale
upper level support will move over the area by early Saturday
morning with showers possible. Convective activity looks to begin
early in the afternoon Saturday as the vort max moves through the
Rockies. One area of concern will be the instability available for
strong convective updrafts to develop. Development of initial
shower activity could limit late morning insolation, especially
along the Laramie Range. Currently, models are hinting at a short-
lived period from 18-21z of 2500 J/kg MLCAPE over the Nebraska
Panhandle. A cap looks to remain in place through the day, however
upper level support should be strong enough to aid in initially
elevated convection across this area. Strong upper level winds
will support fast storm motions and the potential for strong TSTM
wind gusts with 700 mb winds exceeding 50 kts. Shear profiles are
fairly unidirectional with effective shear 60-70 kts. Despite
limited hodograph curvature, elongated shear profiles still
suggest noteworthy 0-1 km helicity values. High-res guidance has
been suggesting primarily linear storm mode with discrete cells
possible farther northeast and multiple waves of storms passing
through with leading shortwave energy ahead of the main vort max.

Main threats Saturday will be strong wind gusts to 60 MPH likely
with storms and severe hail east of the Laramie Range. Largest hail
potential will remain with the greater instability over western
Nebraksa. Possibility of a tornado is still there, but remains low.
SPC has highlighted areas within the CWA east of the Laramie Range
with a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms while an Enhanced Risk
sits over the northern Nebraska Panhandle extending to the northeast
of the CWA in South Dakota.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday night through Friday)
Issued at 251 AM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Warm and mainly dry conditions expected Sunday ahead of the upper
trough over the western CONUS. A few showers or storms possible
out west in the afternoon as a cold front edges east during the
day. Much cooler and unsettled conditions set in for Monday and
Tuesday as the upper trough moves across the region with showers
and a few storms especially late Monday. Dry and warmer Weds and
Thursday as an upper ridge amplifies over the Rocky Mountains.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 523 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

VFR flight conditions expected through 06Z, despite VCSH causing
brief, erratic wind gusts near vicinity of terminals. Wind gusts
of 20-30 knots are likely due to the nearby rain showers for the
WY terminal sites. CDR could also stay gusty past 06Z in addition
to the WY terminals mentioned before. AIA, BFF, and SNY should see
winds approximately 15 knots or less through 6Z. The approaching
weather system from the southwest will begin to increase chances
of rain from west to east after 6Z. This will be mentioned in the
next update around 0530Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 224 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

Afternoon temperatures have reached the 80s for most locations
with relative humidity dropping into the low 20s and teens along
and west of the Laramie Range. Wind gusts 20-25 MPH bring
conditions to near Red Flag Criteria, but critical fuels are not
ready. Widespread wetting rain is expected Saturday with
thunderstorms and strong winds. Cooler temperatures are on the way
early next week, but relative humidity in the southern Nebraska
Panhandle will drop into the teens before then on Sunday.

&&

.CYS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WY...None.
NE...None.
&&

SHORT TERM...MB
LONG TERM...CLH
AVIATION...BW
FIRE WEATHER...MB

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
204 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

NEZ002-003-019>021-054-055-095-096-WYZ101-102-107-108-118-119-
062015-
Dawes County-Box Butte County-Scotts Bluff County-Banner County-
Morrill County-Kimball County-Cheyenne County-
Northern Sioux County-Southern Sioux County-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
East Platte County-Goshen County-Central Laramie County-
East Laramie County-
204 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of panhandle
Nebraska...east central Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected Saturday. Storms
may be strong to severe with hail and wind gusts to 60 MPH
possible.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday.

WYZ103>106-109>117-062015-
North Laramie Range-Ferris/Seminoe/Shirley Mountains-
Shirley Basin-Central Laramie Range and Southwest Platte County-
Central Carbon County-North Snowy Range Foothills-
Southwest Carbon County-Sierra Madre Range-
Upper North Platte River Basin-Snowy Range-Laramie Valley-
South Laramie Range-South Laramie Range Foothills-
204 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of south central
Wyoming and southeast Wyoming.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected on Saturday. A
few storms may be strong to severe with hail and wind gusts to 60
MPH possible. Cooler weather returns next week with Tuesday
morning low temperatures forecast in the mid-30s.

.Spotter information statement...

Spotter activation may be needed on Saturday.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
343 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

WYZ101-052215-
Converse County Lower Elevations-
343 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN CONVERSE COUNTY...

At 343 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 13 miles northwest
of Bill, or 30 miles south of Wright, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northeastern
Converse County.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

LAT...LON 4323 10560 4334 10562 4349 10513 4323 10506
TIME...MOT...LOC 2143Z 258DEG 25KT 4331 10550

Braun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
412 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

WYZ101-102-052245-
Converse County Lower Elevations-Niobrara County-
412 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NIOBRARA AND
NORTHEASTERN CONVERSE COUNTIES...

At 412 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 7 miles north of
Bill, or 32 miles southeast of Wright, moving east at 30 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Dull Center.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4322 10533 4340 10535 4347 10481 4320 10479
TIME...MOT...LOC 2212Z 266DEG 27KT 4332 10524

Braun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
538 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

WYZ102-060015-
Niobrara County-
538 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHWESTERN NIOBRARA COUNTY...

At 538 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 12 miles southeast
of Dull Center, or 39 miles northwest of Lusk, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

This storm will remain over mainly rural areas of northwestern
Niobrara County.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4312 10434 4317 10483 4331 10489 4335 10489
      4350 10467 4350 10451
TIME...MOT...LOC 2338Z 251DEG 18KT 4329 10478

Braun

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Cheyenne WY
614 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

WYZ102-060045-
Niobrara County-
614 PM MDT Fri Jun 5 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT EAST CENTRAL NIOBRARA COUNTY...

At 614 PM MDT, a strong thunderstorm was located 9 miles southwest of
Redbird, or 29 miles north of Lusk, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph and half inch hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Redbird.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 4316 10463 4331 10454 4322 10405 4297 10417
TIME...MOT...LOC 0014Z 289DEG 20KT 4318 10445

Braun