Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1032 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the upper midwest will track across northern
Pennsylvania tonight, then high pressure will build into the
state Wednesday. A potent cold front will sweep through the area
Thursday morning, followed by an upper level trough lingering
over the the northeast conus into the first part of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Steep midlevel lapse rates and PW surging over 1" in a nose from
the Ohio Valley into NW PA are now fueling scattered showers and
thunderstorms over my northwest counties. Weakening trend noted
from the Fingerlakes region ESE, but still some strong updrafts
and hail cores to be had farther southwest, namely Crawford
County where a SVR is in effect for a decent hail core. Almost
all severe reports upstream (MI) tonight were hail reports, but
as time wears on cells have started to take on linear shape and
wind gusts could become the favored mode. Elevated instability
remains in play over much of central and western PA overnight,
and it looks like activity could go most of the overnight as
strong shortwave trough and associated sfc low track ESE across
PA. Showers will become widespread with scattered mainly
elevated storms expected. Some storms along and west of the
Alleghenies may be capable of strong gusty winds and will be
watched. Laurel Highlands has an elevated threat of strong to
locally severe storms given strong mid level winds overnight,
with the risk lowering to the north and east. Convection-
allowing models still indicate the risk of reaching FFG/FFH
numbers are low, so believe the current risk of flooding is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering showers will remain possible Wednesday morning
associated with departing low pressure, then expect clearing
skies by afternoon, as high pressure builds in from the Grt
Lks. Model 850mb temperatures averaging around 8C support highs
from the upper 50s over the northwest mountains, to the low 70s
across the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather pattern through much of the extended.

First up will be a deepening trough over the NE U.S. that will
be accompanied by a potent cold frontal passage early Thursday.
this may bring s few gusty thunderstorms over the Lower Susq
and will produce widespread rain showers CWA-wide.

Behind the front, strong pressure gradient and a surge of
colder air will bring brisk winds (30-40 mph gusts) and chilly
temperatures (much below normal) for early to mid-April, with
temperatures remaining steady or slowly falling Thursday for the
Central and Northern Mountains and Laurel Highlands. On Friday,
highs will struggle to get out of the 30s for the northern
mountains and Alleghenies as breezy conditions continue, with
some wet snow accumulations up to an inch likely Thu night into
Fri.

If clearing skies develop quickly enough Friday night across
the Susquehanna Valley (and chances are strong), and the wind
becomes light enough, frost would become likely as temps dip
close to 32F and maybe even briefly reach freeze conditions.
This is another forecast aspect we'll be monitoring closely this
week.

Temperatures should begin to moderate a bit by Sunday with weak
ridge sliding over the region. But trough regenerates for early
next week, and looks to pick up a developing system in the
southern stream, lifting it toward PA for Mon bringing milder
temps but a high probability for rain. That will be followed by
yet another potent shot of colder air for midweek, pushing
temperatures back below normal and reintroducing a chance for
wet snow to the NW portion of CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Second round of organized showers and thunderstorms late
tonight into early Wednesday morning dropping southeast across
the airspace. There may also be a brief period of marginal LLWS
but not mention attm. Still expect cigs to trend lower through
tonight with low to sub-VFR likely by the end of the 07/12Z TAF
period.

Added LLWS into western most TAF sites at this point. May need
to expand inclusion eastward with time.

.Outlook...

Wed...Showers/low cigs early followed by drying/improving trend.

Thurs...Widespread showers/isold T'storm poss. CFROPA. Gusty
winds 25-35kt from 250-280 degrees.

Fri...Low cigs/rain/snow showers likely NW 1/2. Gusty winds
25-35kt from 270-300 degrees subsiding Friday night.

Sat...Low cigs psbl early then trending VFR. Light rain showers
psbl late.

Sun...VFR early. Chance rain showers by aftn. Strong/gusty
southerly winds psbl Sunday afternoon depending on
track/development of sfc low forecast to move east from the
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/RXR
AVIATION...DeVoir/Gartner

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
530 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-080930-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
530 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gusty west to northwest winds up to 40 mph will occur Thursday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ024>028-033>035-056-080930-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Perry-
530 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms, with gusty winds and hail, are
possible late today or tonight, mainly across the Laurel Highlands.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gusty west to northwest winds up to 40 mph will occur Thursday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ036-057-059-063>066-080930-
Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
530 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail are
possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gusty west to northwest winds up to 40 mph will occur Thursday
afternoon.

Cold temperatures Friday night may lead to frost or freeze
conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

PAZ046-053-080515-
Columbia PA-Southern Lycoming PA-
1245 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF LYCOMING AND COLUMBIA
COUNTIES UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

At 1245 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Lairdsville, moving east at 40 mph.

Penny size hail is possible.

Locations impacted include...
Berwick, Hughesville, Rohrsburg, Jamison City, Waller, Lairdsville,
Central, Fairmount Spgs, Biggertown, Benton, Picture Rocks, Briar
Creek and Stillwater.

LAT...LON 4128 7687 4135 7677 4131 7661 4128 7645
      4131 7641 4130 7631 4120 7632 4113 7627
      4114 7623 4102 7622
TIME...MOT...LOC 0445Z 289DEG 36KT 4127 7665

KF

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
121 AM EDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1155 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S LOTTSVILLE          41.90N 79.44W
04/07/2020                   WARREN             PA   PUBLIC

            BARN DESTROYED, WIND DAMAGE TO HOUSE AND
            TREES DOWN. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

&&

SDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
123 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

PAZ017-024-025-080630-
Clearfield PA-Blair PA-Cambria PA-
123 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CLEARFIELD...BLAIR...AND
CAMBRIA COUNTIES UNTIL 230 AM EDT...

At 123 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from Lecontes Mills to 6 miles west of Indiana.
Movement was east at 60 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Altoona, Clearfield, Hollidaysburg, Tyrone, Ebensburg, Nanty-Glo,
Portage, Northern Cambria, Woodland, Roaring Spring, Curwensville,
Bald Eagle, Martinsburg, Lakemont, Bellwood, Patton, Cresson,
Gallitzin, Claysburg and Hyde.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4072 7880 4108 7880 4118 7836 4105 7806
      4097 7809 4094 7812 4096 7817 4076 7837
      4073 7836 4072 7815 4067 7822 4062 7817
      4056 7820 4054 7815 4047 7813 4025 7829
      4033 7862 4024 7869 4040 7897
TIME...MOT...LOC 0523Z 279DEG 52KT 4107 7826 4062 7928

Colbert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
213 AM EDT WED APR 8 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0210 AM     TSTM WND DMG     1 NE FERNDALE           40.30N 78.91W
04/08/2020                   CAMBRIA            PA   911 CALL CENTER

            MULTIPLE TREES DOWN ON GROVE AVE.

&&

SDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
213 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

PAZ026>028-036-056-057-063-080730-
Perry PA-Franklin PA-Cumberland PA-Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-
Mifflin PA-Dauphin PA-
213 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...DAUPHIN...
MIFFLIN...FRANKLIN...JUNIATA...PERRY...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES UNTIL
330 AM EDT...

At 212 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from near Newport to Entriken. Movement was southeast
at 40 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 55 mph and pea size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Harrisburg, Carlisle, Lower Allen, Hershey, Colonial Park, Progress,
Mechanicsburg, Lewistown, Camp Hill, Palmyra, New Cumberland,
Huntingdon, Linglestown, Enola, Steelton, Lemoyne, Hummelstown,
Plainfield, Paxtonia and Schlusser.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4006 7787 4011 7794 4013 7808 4022 7822
      4030 7826 4047 7813 4051 7815 4066 7726
      4044 7666 4028 7660 4027 7660 4022 7684
      4023 7690 4022 7690 4020 7694 4003 7772
TIME...MOT...LOC 0612Z 297DEG 34KT 4055 7719 4033 7821

Colbert