Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Special Weather Statements in 2020

Special Weather Statement, NWS State College, PA

April 8, 2020Elk County, McKean County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this special weather statement at Apr 8, 2020, 12:18 AM EDT for Elk County, McKean County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 57 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The outline as issued.

The facts

Issued: Apr 8, 2020, 12:18 AM EDT (04:18 UTC)
Expired: Apr 8, 2020, 1:15 AM EDT
In force: 57 min
Issued by: NWS State College, PA

Counties Elk County, PA, McKean County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 87 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 04:18 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 00:00Z, 4.3 hours before the alert went out and 154 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1410 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 65 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 217 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 552 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted.

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What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this special weather statement went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this special weather statement went out at Apr 7, 10:32 PM EDT, 1 hour 46 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, Apr 7, 10:32 PM EDT, 1 hour 46 minutes before

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
1032 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure over the upper midwest will track across northern
Pennsylvania tonight, then high pressure will build into the
state Wednesday. A potent cold front will sweep through the area
Thursday morning, followed by an upper level trough lingering
over the the northeast conus into the first part of next
weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
Steep midlevel lapse rates and PW surging over 1" in a nose from
the Ohio Valley into NW PA are now fueling scattered showers and
thunderstorms over my northwest counties. Weakening trend noted
from the Fingerlakes region ESE, but still some strong updrafts
and hail cores to be had farther southwest, namely Crawford
County where a SVR is in effect for a decent hail core. Almost
all severe reports upstream (MI) tonight were hail reports, but
as time wears on cells have started to take on linear shape and
wind gusts could become the favored mode. Elevated instability
remains in play over much of central and western PA overnight,
and it looks like activity could go most of the overnight as
strong shortwave trough and associated sfc low track ESE across
PA. Showers will become widespread with scattered mainly
elevated storms expected. Some storms along and west of the
Alleghenies may be capable of strong gusty winds and will be
watched. Laurel Highlands has an elevated threat of strong to
locally severe storms given strong mid level winds overnight,
with the risk lowering to the north and east. Convection-
allowing models still indicate the risk of reaching FFG/FFH
numbers are low, so believe the current risk of flooding is low.

&&

.SHORT TERM /7 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
Lingering showers will remain possible Wednesday morning
associated with departing low pressure, then expect clearing
skies by afternoon, as high pressure builds in from the Grt
Lks. Model 850mb temperatures averaging around 8C support highs
from the upper 50s over the northwest mountains, to the low 70s
across the Lower Susq Valley.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Active weather pattern through much of the extended.

First up will be a deepening trough over the NE U.S. that will
be accompanied by a potent cold frontal passage early Thursday.
this may bring s few gusty thunderstorms over the Lower Susq
and will produce widespread rain showers CWA-wide.

Behind the front, strong pressure gradient and a surge of
colder air will bring brisk winds (30-40 mph gusts) and chilly
temperatures (much below normal) for early to mid-April, with
temperatures remaining steady or slowly falling Thursday for the
Central and Northern Mountains and Laurel Highlands. On Friday,
highs will struggle to get out of the 30s for the northern
mountains and Alleghenies as breezy conditions continue, with
some wet snow accumulations up to an inch likely Thu night into
Fri.

If clearing skies develop quickly enough Friday night across
the Susquehanna Valley (and chances are strong), and the wind
becomes light enough, frost would become likely as temps dip
close to 32F and maybe even briefly reach freeze conditions.
This is another forecast aspect we'll be monitoring closely this
week.

Temperatures should begin to moderate a bit by Sunday with weak
ridge sliding over the region. But trough regenerates for early
next week, and looks to pick up a developing system in the
southern stream, lifting it toward PA for Mon bringing milder
temps but a high probability for rain. That will be followed by
yet another potent shot of colder air for midweek, pushing
temperatures back below normal and reintroducing a chance for
wet snow to the NW portion of CWA.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Second round of organized showers and thunderstorms late
tonight into early Wednesday morning dropping southeast across
the airspace. There may also be a brief period of marginal LLWS
but not mention attm. Still expect cigs to trend lower through
tonight with low to sub-VFR likely by the end of the 07/12Z TAF
period.

Added LLWS into western most TAF sites at this point. May need
to expand inclusion eastward with time.

.Outlook...

Wed...Showers/low cigs early followed by drying/improving trend.

Thurs...Widespread showers/isold T'storm poss. CFROPA. Gusty
winds 25-35kt from 250-280 degrees.

Fri...Low cigs/rain/snow showers likely NW 1/2. Gusty winds
25-35kt from 270-300 degrees subsiding Friday night.

Sat...Low cigs psbl early then trending VFR. Light rain showers
psbl late.

Sun...VFR early. Chance rain showers by aftn. Strong/gusty
southerly winds psbl Sunday afternoon depending on
track/development of sfc low forecast to move east from the
Mississippi Valley.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fitzgerald
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Gartner
SHORT TERM...Fitzgerald/Gartner
LONG TERM...Jurewicz/RXR
AVIATION...DeVoir/Gartner

Hazardous weather outlook, Apr 7, 5:30 AM EDT, 18 hours 48 minutes before

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
530 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049>053-058-080930-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-
Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
530 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gusty west to northwest winds up to 40 mph will occur Thursday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ024>028-033>035-056-080930-
Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset-Bedford-Fulton-
Perry-
530 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong to severe thunderstorms, with gusty winds and hail, are
possible late today or tonight, mainly across the Laurel Highlands.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gusty west to northwest winds up to 40 mph will occur Thursday
afternoon.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ036-057-059-063>066-080930-
Franklin-Dauphin-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-
530 AM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

A few strong thunderstorms with gusty winds and small hail are
possible tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

Gusty west to northwest winds up to 40 mph will occur Thursday
afternoon.

Cold temperatures Friday night may lead to frost or freeze
conditions.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

In the hours before

Special weather statement, Apr 7, 10:56 PM EDT, 1 hour 22 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1056 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

PAZ004-080415-
Warren PA-
1056 PM EDT Tue Apr 7 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF WARREN COUNTY UNTIL
1215 AM EDT...

At 1054 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Riceville, moving east at 40 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and dime size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Warren, Sheffield, Columbus, Youngsville, Russell, Spring Creek,
Scandia, Lottsville, Grand Valley, Warren South, Garland, Kinzua Dam,
Chapman State Park, Tidioute, Sugar Grove, Starbrick, Clarendon and
Bear Lake.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7892 4184 7891 4183 7892 4183 7895
      4162 7896 4163 7961 4200 7960
TIME...MOT...LOC 0254Z 283DEG 35KT 4170 7979

Colbert/GD

Special weather statement, Apr 8, 12:14 AM EDT, 4 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1214 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

PAZ017-080500-
Clearfield PA-
1214 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CLEARFIELD COUNTY UNTIL
100 AM EDT...

At 1213 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
DuBois, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
DuBois, Clearfield, Sandy, Philipsburg, Woodland, Curwensville,
Penfield, Hyde, Plymptonville, Rockton, Chester Hill, Karthaus,
Jeffries, Lecontes Mills, S.B. Elliot State Park, Parker Dam State
Park, Morrisdale, West Decatur, Grassflat and Grampian.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Heavy rain is also occuring with this storm. Avoid flooded roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4117 7879 4120 7876 4122 7865 4125 7864
      4121 7809 4115 7804 4112 7811 4106 7809
      4105 7806 4103 7808 4101 7806 4099 7809
      4096 7808 4094 7812 4096 7817 4095 7816
      4091 7822 4087 7825 4098 7881
TIME...MOT...LOC 0413Z 276DEG 39KT 4112 7870

Colbert

Special weather statement, Apr 8, 12:18 AM EDT, 0 minutes before

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
1218 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

PAZ005-010-080515-
McKean PA-Elk PA-
1218 AM EDT Wed Apr 8 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ELK AND MCKEAN COUNTIES
UNTIL 115 AM EDT...

At 1217 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms along a
line extending from 7 miles southwest of Allegany State Park to 6
miles southeast of Marienville. Movement was southeast at 50 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and nickel size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
St. Marys, Bradford, Ridgway, Kane, Johnsonburg, Allegany State Park,
Port Allegany, Smethport, Wetmore, Shinglehouse, Betula, Wilcox,
James City, Force, Benezette, Rew, Crosby, Ludlow, Marshburg and East
Branch Dam.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

&&

LAT...LON 4200 7820 4162 7820 4162 7841 4160 7842
      4141 7842 4140 7825 4124 7824 4125 7864
      4120 7870 4126 7874 4137 7896 4135 7909
      4145 7906 4144 7896 4183 7895 4184 7892
      4200 7892
TIME...MOT...LOC 0417Z 302DEG 43KT 4196 7885 4139 7908

Colbert

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
Apr 7, 10:56 PM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Warren	79 min
Apr 7, 11:44 PM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Warren	61 min
Apr 8, 12:14 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Clearfield	46 min
Apr 8, 12:45 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Columbia	30 min
Apr 8, 1:16 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Columbia	14 min
Apr 8, 1:23 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Blair, Cambria, Clearfield	67 min
Apr 8, 1:44 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Cambria, Somerset	61 min
Apr 8, 2:13 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Cumberland, Dauphin, Huntingdon, Juniata, Perry	77 min
Apr 8, 2:20 AM EDT	Special Weather Statement	CTP	Bedford	25 min
Apr 8, 2:26 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Bedford, Fulton, Huntingdon	49 min
Apr 8, 2:51 AM EDT	Severe Thunderstorm Warning	CTP	Franklin	39 min

Nearby

Special Weather Statements in Pennsylvania, 2020 Every special weather statement in 2020

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.