Severe Thunderstorm Warning 64, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
334 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue this late this
afternoon into Saturday with numerous thunderstorms, some
severe, forming across much of the region today with showers
and thunderstorms most concentrated over the southeast third of
the state.

Cooler and less humid air will arrive Saturday night and
promote pleasant and dry weather Sunday through Tuesday. Expect
temperatures and humidity levels to trend higher into midweek
ahead of the next frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ML cape has increased to between 500-1000 J/KG across much of
the southern half of the CWA at 19Z, while sfc based Cape is up
to over 2000 j/kg across the Laurel Highlands where the
strongest convection is currently firing and moving ENE.

Expect the radar screen across the southern two thirds of the
CWA to light up through early this evening, as a blend of
multicell clusters and discrete strong to svr supercell storms
track ENE across the current SVR TSRA Watch 250 (ahead of a
larger-scale line of severe convection with bowing segments
moves in from eastern Ohio this evening).

The lead storms will continue to strengthen over the next
several hours as they move into the warmer and more humid
airmass in place across the Lower Susq Valley with temps in the
mid to upper 80s.

Temps elsewhere late this afternoon will range from the upper
60s to low 70s across the Nrn Tier of PA where thicker clouds
are more widespread, to the upper 70s and l80s over the rest of
central PA and the Laurel Highlands.

The TSRA may train from west to east in some areas. WPC's D1
MRGL ERO covers the entire area with latest high res models and
HREF mean showing spotty 1-2" amounts. This rainfall could
produce some isolated flooding particularly in urban areas, but
the overall risk of FF is low especially given 14-day rainfall
departures that are generally 25-50% of normal.

The convection will move east/decrease in coverage early
tonight with mostly cloudy skies into Friday morning. Max/min
temps will be above average with the largest departure from
normal in lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and humid conditions continue on Friday with isolated to
scattered aftn storms expected to form again in weakly forced
environment along the terrain/lee trough axis and drift slowly
east/southeast. 00Z HREF mean shows PWs climbing to 1.75 inches
over parts of south central/southeast PA with 1000-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE expected during peak heating. The main threat will be
locally heavy rain as pulse storms become nearly stationary.
Given recent rainfall departures, an isolated FF risk would be
confined mainly to the more vulnerable/urban areas where heavy
rain rates may occur. Expect convective coverage to diminish
again into Friday night.

An upper trough over Ontario and Quebec will deepen across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Saturday. A moist boundary
layer will be in place as a cold front moves southeast across
the region during the morning and early afternoon. The SPC D3
outlook does not even have the area in general tstm risk so its
looking like mainly passing showers with fropa early Saturday.

Cooler and drier/less humid air will arrive in the wake of the
front by Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pleasant and comfortable weather expected Sunday through
Tuesday with a mix of sun/clouds and low humidity.

We should see a warming trend heading into the middle of next
week, as the remnants of TS Cristobal move up the MS valley and
help build an upper-level ridge over the eastern United States.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Focus late this afternoon will be on increasing coverage of
sowers and locally strong to severe thunderstorms. Will include
a 3-4 hour tempo group for TSRA with brief strong wind gusts and
MVFR at all TAF sites except for KBFD where mainly BKN-OVC VFR
and cloudy/cooler conditions will prevail through this evening.

light and variable wind and associated radiational cooling may
promote patchy fog late this evening, mainly in those spots that
receive rain this afternoon.

Outlook...

Fri...AM low cigs possible N Mtns. Scattered PM tsra impacts.

Sat...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Evanego
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

PAZ004>006-037-051845-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Tioga-
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ042-051845-
Sullivan-
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ010>012-017>019-024-025-033-041-045-046-049-051-053-051845-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Northern Lycoming-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Montour-Columbia-
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ026>028-034>036-050-052-056>059-063>066-051845-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Snyder-
Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
York-Lancaster-
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Locally heavy rainfall is expected with many of these storms.
Flooding may result.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible Friday afternoon and may produce
isolated flooding primarily in more sensitive urban areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
616 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0601 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 S MARION              39.85N 77.67W
06/04/2020                   FRANKLIN           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON MARION ROAD.

&&

ART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
617 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

PAZ058-042245-
Schuylkill PA-
617 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF SCHUYLKILL COUNTY UNTIL
645 PM EDT...

At 615 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated strong thunderstorms over
much of Schuylkill County, moving east at 35 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Pottsville, Tamaqua, Schuylkill Haven, Shenandoah, Minersville,
Mahanoy City, Frackville, St. Clair, Ashland, Orwigsburg, Mcadoo,
Pine Grove, Port Carbon, Tremont, Girardville, Hometown, Tuscarora,
New Philadelphia, Friedensburg and Grier City-Park Crest.

This includes the following COVID-19 Test Sites...
Geisinger Orwigsburg...
Geisinger St. Luke's Hospital...
Lehigh Valley Health Network...
and West Penn Medical Center.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may
lead to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through
flooded roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 4070 7581 4064 7598 4059 7601 4058 7603
      4058 7607 4053 7617 4052 7634 4050 7638
      4073 7650 4091 7605 4090 7602 4091 7600
      4081 7589 4073 7576
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 269DEG 34KT 4056 7625

Gartner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
619 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0617 PM     TSTM WND DMG     1 W MYERSTOWN           40.37N 76.33W
06/04/2020                   LEBANON            PA   AMATEUR RADIO

            TREE DOWN IN JACKSON TOWNSHIP.

&&

SDT

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
620 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0548 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 NE MERCERSBURG        39.86N 77.86W
06/04/2020                   FRANKLIN           PA   911 CALL CENTER

            TREES AND WIRES DOWN ON LEMAR ROAD.

&&

ART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
624 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0510 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW PENN NATIONAL RAC 40.39N 76.70W
06/04/2020                   DAUPHIN            PA   PUBLIC

            MULTIPLE TREES AND WIRES DOWN ACROSS ROUTE
            443.

&&

SDT

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
625 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

PAZ026>028-042330-
Juniata PA-Huntingdon PA-Mifflin PA-
625 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...MIFFLIN...
AND JUNIATA COUNTIES UNTIL 730 PM EDT...

At 624 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Allensville, moving northeast at 35 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Lewistown, Burnham, Belleville, Milroy, Highland Park, Yeagertown,
Strodes Mills, Reedsville, Juniata Terrace, Allensville, Mexico,
Alfarata, Reeds Gap State Park, Mcalevys Fort, Belltown, Walnut,
Seven Mountains, Mifflintown, Port Royal and Thompsontown.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

If on or near an area lake, get off of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4048 7796 4058 7797 4075 7763 4081 7748
      4055 7720 4051 7731 4041 7786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2224Z 247DEG 29KT 4054 7789

Lambert