Severe Thunderstorm Warning 58, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
334 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and humid conditions will continue this late this
afternoon into Saturday with numerous thunderstorms, some
severe, forming across much of the region today with showers
and thunderstorms most concentrated over the southeast third of
the state.

Cooler and less humid air will arrive Saturday night and
promote pleasant and dry weather Sunday through Tuesday. Expect
temperatures and humidity levels to trend higher into midweek
ahead of the next frontal system.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/...
ML cape has increased to between 500-1000 J/KG across much of
the southern half of the CWA at 19Z, while sfc based Cape is up
to over 2000 j/kg across the Laurel Highlands where the
strongest convection is currently firing and moving ENE.

Expect the radar screen across the southern two thirds of the
CWA to light up through early this evening, as a blend of
multicell clusters and discrete strong to svr supercell storms
track ENE across the current SVR TSRA Watch 250 (ahead of a
larger-scale line of severe convection with bowing segments
moves in from eastern Ohio this evening).

The lead storms will continue to strengthen over the next
several hours as they move into the warmer and more humid
airmass in place across the Lower Susq Valley with temps in the
mid to upper 80s.

Temps elsewhere late this afternoon will range from the upper
60s to low 70s across the Nrn Tier of PA where thicker clouds
are more widespread, to the upper 70s and l80s over the rest of
central PA and the Laurel Highlands.

The TSRA may train from west to east in some areas. WPC's D1
MRGL ERO covers the entire area with latest high res models and
HREF mean showing spotty 1-2" amounts. This rainfall could
produce some isolated flooding particularly in urban areas, but
the overall risk of FF is low especially given 14-day rainfall
departures that are generally 25-50% of normal.

The convection will move east/decrease in coverage early
tonight with mostly cloudy skies into Friday morning. Max/min
temps will be above average with the largest departure from
normal in lows tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Warm and humid conditions continue on Friday with isolated to
scattered aftn storms expected to form again in weakly forced
environment along the terrain/lee trough axis and drift slowly
east/southeast. 00Z HREF mean shows PWs climbing to 1.75 inches
over parts of south central/southeast PA with 1000-2000 J/kg of
MUCAPE expected during peak heating. The main threat will be
locally heavy rain as pulse storms become nearly stationary.
Given recent rainfall departures, an isolated FF risk would be
confined mainly to the more vulnerable/urban areas where heavy
rain rates may occur. Expect convective coverage to diminish
again into Friday night.

An upper trough over Ontario and Quebec will deepen across the
Northeast and Mid-Atlantic vicinity on Saturday. A moist boundary
layer will be in place as a cold front moves southeast across
the region during the morning and early afternoon. The SPC D3
outlook does not even have the area in general tstm risk so its
looking like mainly passing showers with fropa early Saturday.

Cooler and drier/less humid air will arrive in the wake of the
front by Saturday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Pleasant and comfortable weather expected Sunday through
Tuesday with a mix of sun/clouds and low humidity.

We should see a warming trend heading into the middle of next
week, as the remnants of TS Cristobal move up the MS valley and
help build an upper-level ridge over the eastern United States.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Focus late this afternoon will be on increasing coverage of
sowers and locally strong to severe thunderstorms. Will include
a 3-4 hour tempo group for TSRA with brief strong wind gusts and
MVFR at all TAF sites except for KBFD where mainly BKN-OVC VFR
and cloudy/cooler conditions will prevail through this evening.

light and variable wind and associated radiational cooling may
promote patchy fog late this evening, mainly in those spots that
receive rain this afternoon.

Outlook...

Fri...AM low cigs possible N Mtns. Scattered PM tsra impacts.

Sat...AM low cigs possible W Mtns.

Sun-Mon...No sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Lambert
NEAR TERM...Lambert
SHORT TERM...Lambert/Steinbugl
LONG TERM...Lambert/Evanego
AVIATION...Fitzgerald/Lambert

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

PAZ004>006-037-051845-
Warren-McKean-Potter-Tioga-
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ042-051845-
Sullivan-
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ010>012-017>019-024-025-033-041-045-046-049-051-053-051845-
Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre-
Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Somerset-Northern Lycoming-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-Union-Montour-Columbia-
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

PAZ026>028-034>036-050-052-056>059-063>066-051845-
Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Snyder-
Northumberland-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-
York-Lancaster-
234 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 250 IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

Locally heavy rainfall is expected with many of these storms.
Flooding may result.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible Friday afternoon and may produce
isolated flooding primarily in more sensitive urban areas.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

PAZ019-045-049-042045-
Southern Clinton PA-Union PA-Southern Centre PA-
352 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT PARTS OF CENTRE...UNION...AND
CLINTON COUNTIES UNTIL 445 PM EDT...

At 350 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a few strong thunderstorms
along a line extending from near Julian to Centre Hall. Movement was
northeast at 30 mph.

Torrential rain is expected.
Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and half inch hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
Bellefonte, Woodward, Pleasant Gap, Lamar, Lemont, Zion, Houserville,
Centre Hall, Milesburg, Millheim, Blanchard, Aaronsburg, Rebersburg,
Spring Mills, Coburn, Madisonburg, Julian, Bald Eagle State Park,
Mackeyville and Poe Valley State Park.

This includes the following COVID-19 Test Sites...
Geisinger...
and Mt. Nittany Medical Center Emergency.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

These storms may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

If on or near an area lake, get off of the water and move indoors or
inside a vehicle. Remember, lightning can strike out to 10 miles
from the parent thunderstorm. If you can hear thunder, you are close
enough to be struck by lightning. Move to safe shelter now! Do not
be caught on the water in a thunderstorm.

&&

LAT...LON 4096 7718 4085 7735 4080 7755 4082 7810
      4102 7776 4112 7756
TIME...MOT...LOC 1950Z 215DEG 24KT 4090 7794 4084 7769

Lambert

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
406 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0322 PM     HAIL             HARRISSONVILLE          39.99N 78.06W
06/04/2020  M1.00 INCH       FULTON             PA   OTHER FEDERAL

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND IN
            HARRISSONVILLE.

&&

ART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
406 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

PAZ019-025-026-042030-
Blair PA-Huntingdon PA-Southern Centre PA-
406 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF HUNTINGDON...CENTRE...
AND BLAIR COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

At 405 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm near
Rock Springs, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts 40 to 50 mph and penny size hail are possible.

Locations impacted include...
State College, Huntingdon, Park Forest Village, Boalsburg,
Stormstown, Lemont, Warriors Mark, Pine Grove Mills, Ramblewood, Port
Matilda, Spruce Creek, Birmingham, Franklinville, Whipple Dam State
Park, Mcalevys Fort, Potters Mills, Rock Springs, Petersburg,
Alexandria and Tussey Mountain Ski Area.

This includes the following COVID-19 Test Sites...
Blue Course Drive...
Mount Nittany Health Boalsburg...
and State College Urgent Care Center.

LAT...LON 4051 7800 4060 7825 4082 7810 4080 7758
TIME...MOT...LOC 2005Z 227DEG 37KT 4070 7803

Gartner

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
410 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0330 PM     HAIL             MCCONNELLSBURG          39.93N 78.00W
06/04/2020  M1.00 INCH       FULTON             PA   OTHER FEDERAL

            QUARTER SIZE HAIL COVERED THE GROUND LIKE
            SNOW AROUND THE POST OFFICE.

&&

ART

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
420 PM EDT THU JUN 4 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0352 PM     HAIL             3 SW FORT LOUDON        39.91N 77.91W
06/04/2020  E0.88 INCH       FRANKLIN           PA   PUBLIC

            NICKEL SIZE HAIL LASTED A FEW MINUTES.

&&

ART

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service State College PA
425 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

PAZ036-064-042100-
Adams PA-Franklin PA-
425 PM EDT Thu Jun 4 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT PARTS OF ADAMS AND FRANKLIN
COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM EDT...

At 424 PM EDT, Doppler radar indicated a strong thunderstorm over
Chambersburg, moving east at 30 mph.

Wind gusts of up to 55 mph and nickel size hail are possible.

This strong thunderstorm will be near...
  Guilford and Scotland around 430 PM EDT.
  Fayetteville around 435 PM EDT.

This includes the following COVID-19 Test Sites...
Chambersburg Community Assessment Site...
Keystone Health...
and WellSpan Health.

LAT...LON 3990 7774 3998 7774 4004 7752 4001 7750
      3998 7746 3995 7746 3998 7742 3995 7738
      3986 7746
TIME...MOT...LOC 2024Z 267DEG 24KT 3994 7766

Dangelo