Severe Thunderstorm Warning 145, NWS State College, PA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service State College PA
547 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
There is an enhanced risk of severe storms across north central
and northeast Pennsylvania this evening. Damaging winds being
the main threat.

Wet weather will be possible again on Friday, and more likely
on Saturday, as the remnants of Laura track just south of
Pennsylvania. Some of the rainfall could be on the heavy side.

A cooler and drier/less humid airmass prevail Sunday into early
next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Two WW's in effect covering all but 4 southeasternmost counties
of our CWA. Two lines producing severe weather currently. The
first is a bow echo originating earlier over southern Ontario.
The second is an intense line of storms mostly over PBZ's area,
but has reached into the WC Mountains as of early evening. DD
CAPES impressive south of I80, but uncertainy in how far east
storms survive this evening. However, have to watch how things
could change near sunset. Storms could linger until midnight,
given the intense heating we have seen today. Main threat for
all is strong to severe winds, given wind fields aloft and deep
mixing. A bit too far west to have much potential for rotating
storms.

Activity weakens and exits the area late tonight. Some showers
linger overnight. Lows will be within a few degrees of 70
degrees.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Additional strong storms with gusty wind threat (MRGL risk or
level 1 out of 5) are possible later Friday afternoon. SPC did
edge the far western areas into slight. Wind fields not as
strong today, thus expect more of a typical day of lighter winds
and more of a pulse type day. Main concern is over today at this
time, later shifts can adjust wording in DDS type products, as
the event unfolds.

The main change for Friday, was to edge dewpoints down in the
southeast, and up a little across the north and central areas,
given overall weather pattern.

More informatin below for later Friday.

There is a broad model signal for moderate to perhaps locally
heavy QPF amounts across the northwest part of the area heading
into Friday night/Saturday morning. This would be the point
where moisture from Laura would be transported northward along
cold front pushing east from the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

Some chat with LWX and WPC today, and the MARFC. Main concern
mainly out of our area, given current track and how dry it has
been.

A cold front accompanying a progressive northern-stream trough
will advance southeast through the OH Valley and Northeast
States, reaching the Middle Atlantic during the evening on
Saturday. Showers and thunderstorms will be ongoing along and
ahead of the front. Additional storms will likely develop as the
warm sector destabilizes during the afternoon, posing a threat
for mainly damaging wind. SPC has placed a SLGT risk area over
far southeast zones which just clips a part of the lower Susq.
Valley.

The remnants of Laura are forecast to track to the south of PA
Saturday and Saturday night. Some moisture entrainment is
possible along/ahead of aforementioned cold front. While some
heavy downpours are likely, the forecast wild card here is
whether or how much moisture from Laura can interact with the
frontal boundary. If this occurs, storms could pose more of a
flood threat. But at this time, rainfall impacts appear to be
limited. WPC has introduced a marginal risk ERO and will continue
to monitor for an increase in heavy rainfall potential Saturday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Behind the front and Laura, much cooler air will move into the
region late this weekend and into next week. Expect high temps
to be more in the 70s and lower 80s with low humidity.

High pressure will lead to generally dry weather Sunday and
Monday, although it may be cool enough aloft on Sunday for some
lake effect rain showers to form off of Lake Erie which could
move into the northern tier of PA. High pressure will drift
eastward Monday with southerly flow developing across the
region. This flow will bring an uptick in moisture for Tuesday
and Wednesday leading to the chance for showers or thunderstorms
each afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Several small areas of showers and isolated storms on radar as
of 2 PM.

Tried to cover these in the 18Z TAF package, as well as the
potential for more activity later this afternoon and evening.

Gusty west winds to prevail this afternoon.

Some fog and low clouds late tonight.

More showers possible across the west on Friday morning, working
eastward later in the day.

A wet day expected on Saturday, as a strong cold front nears.

Outlook...

Fri...AM low cigs possible wrn highlands. Sct PM tsra impacts
possible.

Sat...Widespread showers and reductions are expected.

Sun-Mon...Generally VFR w/ no sig wx expected.

&&

.CTP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Steinbugl/Martin
NEAR TERM...DeVoir/Steinbugl/Martin
SHORT TERM...Steinbugl
LONG TERM...DeVoir/Travis
AVIATION...Martin

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service State College PA
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

PAZ004-005-010-011-281000-
Warren-McKean-Elk-Cameron-
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ006-012-037-041-042-045-046-281000-
Potter-Northern Clinton-Tioga-Northern Lycoming-Sullivan-
Southern Clinton-Southern Lycoming-
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 456 IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to
weather.gov/StateCollege on the internet for more
information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ018-019-025>028-034>036-050-056-063-281000-
Northern Centre-Southern Centre-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-
Bedford-Fulton-Franklin-Snyder-Perry-Cumberland-
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon
and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ049-051>053-058-281000-
Union-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia-Schuylkill-
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon
and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible Friday
afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ057-059-064>066-281000-
Dauphin-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster-
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon
and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible Friday and
Saturday afternoon. Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

PAZ017-024-033-281000-
Clearfield-Cambria-Somerset-
309 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central Pennsylvania.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

A few severe thunderstorms with damaging winds 60 mph or greater and
large hail exceeding 1 inch in diameter are possible this afternoon
and early evening.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Friday through Wednesday.

Isolated severe thunderstorms are possible on Friday.

Locally heavy rainfall is possible on Saturday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotters are encouraged to report significant hazardous weather.

Martin

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