Flash Flood Warning 2, NWS Corpus Christi, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
623 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

.DISCUSSION...

Updated for 12Z Aviation discussion.

&&

.AVIATION...

Convection has begun to increase this morning. CRP, ALI, and COT
are are expected to have predominately MVFR ceilings and IFR
expected as showers and storms move inland and across the terminal
sites. LRD and VCT still remain VFR,though conditions will
deteriorate to MVFR through the morning and IFR with any storms.
Timing of MVFR to IFR transitions will be challenging, so have
introduced TEMPO groups for time periods when storms are expected.
Rain and thunderstorms will continue through the evening tonight,
before beginning to wane by the end of the forecast period.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 355 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020/

SHORT TERM (Today through Tuesday)...

Convection is expected to redevelop this morning along a coastal
trough in place along the coast. Models indicate this may move a
bit more inland today, which will increase the chances for heavier
precipitation over the Coastal Bend. Convection will move inland
through the day, increasing chances for showers and thunderstorms
across the Brush Country. Localized flash flooding may be possible
today in some of the heavier showers, but widespread flash
flooding continues to be unlikely. Convection will begin to
decrease tonight and into Tuesday.

Temperatures today will be several degrees below normal with
rainfall and thick cloud cover expected, with highs in the low to
mid 80s. Tuesday will see slightly warmer temperatures, with highs
in the mid to upper 90s as rain chances diminish and clouds begin
to clear.

LONG TERM (Tuesday Night through Monday)...

The upper level low that has been influencing the region will slide
east as the upper level ridge builds in. Meanwhile, onshore flow in
the lower levels will continue to usher moisture inland. Models have
backed off from keeping PWATs around 2" through the week and are now
generally around 1" which is still above average for early June.
Kept POPs higher on Wednesday as the subtropical jet will linger
around and provide sufficient lift for additional showers and
storms. With relatively high moisture but no significant forcing to
close out the work week, would expect any convection to be mainly
diurnally/sea breeze driven. Temperatures will warm up throughout
the week with highs in the upper 80s along the immediate coast to
the upper 90s out west. Lows will be seasonal with temps dropping in
the low to mid 70s across the Brush Country to around 80 along the
coast.

The forecast heading into the weekend remains uncertain. The
National Hurricane Center continues to monitor the remnants of
Tropical Storm Amanda which are currently located near the Guatemala-
Yucatan border. The system is forecast to move into the Bay of
Campeche over the next several days. The NHC currently has a 70%
chance of formation over the next 5 days as the system may redevelop
in a favorable environment.

The last item of concern is the potential for coastal flooding by
mid week. The combination of a low pressure system developing to our
south and a high pressure well to our east will provide an easterly
fetch across the Gulf which may result in water piling up along Gulf-
facing beaches, especially during high tide. Recent P-ETSS and E-TSS
output show tidal levels exceeding 2 ft MSL on Wednesday and
Thursday.

MARINE...
Showers and thunderstorms will continue today across the area.
Light to moderate easterly winds are expected but gusty winds are
possible in and around thunderstorms. Weak to moderate easterly
to southeasterly flow is expected through the period. Isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible through Wednesday
evening. Showers and storms will become more isolated to close
out the work week. There remains a bit of uncertainty with the
forecast over the weekend with regards to the formation of a
potential tropical system in the Bay of Campeche. The National
Hurricane Center currently has a 70% chance of formation over the
next 5 days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Corpus Christi    83  74  87  73  87  /  70  30  30  10  30
Victoria          82  70  88  72  88  /  70  30  30  10  30
Laredo            86  73  88  73  90  /  70  40  30   0  10
Alice             85  71  88  72  90  /  70  30  30  10  20
Rockport          84  76  86  78  88  /  80  30  30  20  30
Cotulla           86  71  89  72  92  /  60  30  30   0  10
Kingsville        85  72  88  73  89  /  70  30  30  10  30
Navy Corpus       83  77  85  77  86  /  80  40  30  20  30

&&

.CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

LS/77...AVIATION

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
359 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

TXZ229>234-239>247-342>347-442-443-447-020900-
La Salle-McMullen-Live Oak-Bee-Goliad-Victoria-Webb-Duval-
Jim Wells-Inland Kleberg-Inland Nueces-Inland San Patricio-
Coastal Aransas-Inland Refugio-Inland Calhoun-Coastal Kleberg-
Coastal Nueces-Coastal San Patricio-Aransas Islands-
Coastal Refugio-Coastal Calhoun-Kleberg Islands-Nueces Islands-
Calhoun Islands-
359 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for South Texas.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible today and
tonight.

There is a moderate risk of rip currents along Gulf-facing beaches
today.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are possible through mid week.

Coastal flooding is possible along Gulf-facing beaches Wednesday and
Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.

GMZ230-235-250-255-270-275-020900-
Bays and Waterways from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas-
Bays and Waterways from Port Aransas to Port O'Connor-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas out 20 NM-
Coastal waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel out
20 NM-Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Aransas from 20 to 60 NM-
Waters from Port Aransas to Matagorda Ship Channel from 20 to
60 NM-
359 AM CDT Mon Jun 1 2020

This hazardous weather outlook is for the Middle Texas
Coastal Waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and Tonight

Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are possible today and
tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Tuesday through Sunday

Isolated to scattered thunderstorms possible through mid week.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not anticipated.