Severe Thunderstorm Warning 81, NWS Columbia, SC

027 
WWUS52 KCAE 222027
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
427 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

SCC057-222100-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-200522T2100Z/
Lancaster SC-
427 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 PM EDT
FOR NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTY...

At 427 PM EDT, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from near Waxhaw to 6 miles west of Great Falls, moving
east at 45 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts and penny size hail.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Elgin, Andrew Jackson State Park, USC Lancaster, Van Wyck,
Irwin, Bell Town Fire Station, Arrowood Estates, Camp Creek Fire
Station, Unity Fire Station, Lancaster Mill, Carolina Commons
Shopping Center, McWhirter Airfield and McDonald Green Elementary
School.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

For your protection seek shelter inside a sturdy building and stay
away from windows.

This line of thunderstorms is capable of producing tornadoes and
widespread significant wind damage. Do not wait to see or hear the
tornado. Immediately move to an interior room or closet on the lowest
floor of a sturdy building.

&&

LAT...LON 3493 8078 3482 8079 3482 8056 3456 8087
      3460 8089 3465 8088 3470 8086 3474 8088
      3479 8087 3483 8090 3484 8087 3490 8088
      3493 8086 3495 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2027Z 282DEG 37KT 3495 8072 3456 8101 

HAIL...0.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

874 
WWUS52 KCAE 222045 RRA
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
445 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

SCC057-222055-
/O.CAN.KCAE.SV.W.0081.000000T0000Z-200522T2100Z/
Lancaster SC-
445 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHWESTERN LANCASTER COUNTY
IS CANCELLED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

To report severe weather, contact your nearest law enforcement 
agency. They will relay your report to the National Weather Service 
Columbia.

LAT...LON 3493 8078 3482 8079 3482 8056 3456 8087
      3460 8089 3465 8088 3470 8086 3474 8088
      3479 8087 3483 8090 3484 8087 3490 8088
      3493 8086 3495 8080
TIME...MOT...LOC 2044Z 263DEG 52KT 3498 8041 3459 8070 

$$

JAQ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
246 PM EDT Fri May 22 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A nearly stationary front and an upper level disturbance will
result in scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
through much of the evening. The air mass will remain moist and
unstable through the weekend and scattered afternoon and evening
showers and thunderstorms are expected. Temperatures will be
above normal. Temperatures will be more seasonable early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Water vapor imagery this afternoon depicts a closed upper level
low over the Ohio Valley, with a west-southwest flow in place
aloft over the region. Meanwhile, a surface analysis shows that
a front has lifted north into the area, but has become nearly
stationary and is rather diffuse.

The atmosphere continues to destabilize this afternoon as
temperatures warm into the 80s in many areas. These warm
temperatures along with dew point values in the upper 60s to
around 70 will result in strong surface-based instability, with
CAPE values rising above 2000 J/kg in many places by late this
afternoon. Moisture is also plentiful, with the high dew points
and PWAT values of 1.50-1.75". The instability, moisture, and
forcing provided by a potent short wave moving across eastern TN
and northern GA will result in the development of scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms late this afternoon and
evening.

There is increasing concern for severe thunderstorms, mainly
late this afternoon and early this evening, as a strengthening
upstream MCV moves across the northern and central Midlands
where conditions continue to destabilize. Additional more
discrete storms are possible ahead of the line. As a result, a
Severe Thunderstorm Watch has been issued for the northern and
portions of the central Midlands through 8 pm this evening. The
primary threat is damaging winds, especially with any bowing
segments that develop. However, some large hail and even a
tornado could occur.

While locally heavy rainfall will occur, the storms should be
rather progressive so the overall flash flood threat will be
minimal.

The strongest storms should move east of the area by late
evening, but models suggest the potential for some lingering
convection into the early overnight hours, especially across
northern areas.

There could be some breaks in the clouds overnight, but guidance
is suggesting that patchy fog could form in many areas toward
daybreak Saturday and have added mention to the forecast.
Temperatures will be mild, with lows in the mid and upper 60s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
Saturday and Saturday night...Upper level ridge will build across
the southeastern states over the weekend. The airmass will remain
moist and moderately to strongly unstable with steep low to mid
level lapse rates. With 850mb west flow/warm advection expect temps
around 90 degrees in the afternoon. Weak surface trough across area.
There may be a weak short wave trough trigger moving to the
southeast in northwest flow aloft. CAM models support scattered
convection/pulse severe mainly across the north Midlands and Pee Dee
in the afternoon and evening. Min temps above normal near 70.

Sunday and Sunday night...Surface ridge over the Northeastern
States builds down the eastern seaboard and appears a back door
front will be approaching from eastern North Carolina late in
the day or in the evening. A sea breeze front is also possible
as low level flow becomes east. The air mass remains at least
moderately unstable with steep low to mid level lapse rates.
Scattered convection...isolated pulse severe...mainly in the
late afternoon and evening. The convection may continue
overnight but diminish as more stable air/front moves into the
area. Blended temperature guidance supports max temps near 90
again with min temps above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Front moving southwest through the area early monday and weak
shallow isentropic lift may result in considerable clouds and
showers mainly across the CSRA and south Midlands. The ridge will
build in from the northeast with drier air for Monday night and
Tuesday. Temperatures a little cooler/seasonable especially Monday.
Surface ridge extending from offshore Mid Atlantic states through
late week with building ridge aloft over the eastern CONUS as deep
low moves into the southern Plains. Persistent east to southeast
deep-layer flow for most of next week. Low chance convection through
the period. Temperatures warm under ridge but with east flow should
result in near normal values in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A line of strong to severe thunderstorms should move across
much of central SC late this afternoon into early this evening
and impact CAE/CUB/OGB. However, additional scattered
thunderstorms could also develop and impact AGS/DNL. As a
result, have included vicinity thunderstorms at all terminals
during this time period, and a tempo group lasting for a couple
of hours mainly from 21-00Z. Gusty/erratic winds are likely,
along with brief restrictions, with any thunderstorms.
Conditions should improve late this evening and overnight, with
VFR conditions at all terminals. There is the potential for some
low stratus and/or fog to develop toward daybreak Saturday, but
confidence is not great enough to indicate anything lower than
MVFR conditions at this time.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...Restrictions possible in mainly
diurnal showers and thunderstorms are possible through the
weekend with improvement early next week.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Rainfall amounts over the past 48 hours have ranged from 3 to 8
inches across much of the upper and central portions of the
river basins. This will lead to considerable river flooding on
many of the area rivers through the holiday weekend.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook...UPDATED
National Weather Service Columbia SC
900 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
231300-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
900 AM EDT Fri May 22 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening. Damaging
winds and large hail are the primary threats. Locally heavy rainfall
is also possible.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.