Severe Thunderstorm Warning 71, NWS Columbia, SC

858 
WWUS52 KCAE 052245
SVSCAE

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Columbia SC
645 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020

SCC055-057-052315-
/O.CON.KCAE.SV.W.0071.000000T0000Z-200505T2315Z/
Lancaster SC-Kershaw SC-
645 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 715 PM EDT
FOR LANCASTER AND NORTHWESTERN KERSHAW COUNTIES...

At 644 PM EDT, a severe thunderstorm was located near Fishing Creek
Reservoir, or 10 miles southwest of Lancaster, moving east at 50 mph.

HAZARD...Golf ball size hail and 60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...People and animals outdoors will be injured. Expect hail 
         damage to roofs, siding, windows, and vehicles. Expect wind 
         damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Lancaster, Kershaw, Elgin, Heath Springs, Westville, USC Lancaster,
Irwin, Buford, Bell Town Fire Station, Arrowood Estates, Camp Creek
Fire Station, Antioch, Kirk Air Base, Faith Christian School, Forty
Acre Rock Preserve, Taxahaw, Pleasant Hill, Kershaw Correctional
Institution, Lancaster Mill and McWhirter Airfield.

LAT...LON 3482 8090 3473 8050 3473 8049 3442 8061
      3451 8088 3457 8087 3460 8089 3467 8089
      3470 8086 3474 8088 3479 8087
TIME...MOT...LOC 2244Z 289DEG 44KT 3465 8095 

TORNADO...POSSIBLE
HAIL...1.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

fwa

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
129 PM EDT Tue May 5 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm front near the NC/SC border and a low pressure system
approaching from the Upstate may result in severe weather threat
this evening. The low pressure system will move off the coast
late tonight and cooler and drier air will spread into the area
through the mid week. Another chance of rain Friday as a cold
front moves through the area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Forecast issue today is the potential for organized severe
weather this evening. Supercells may be possible with
directional shear so can't rule out isolated tornado although
main threat bowing segments and severe hail.

Upper level trough over the Upper Midwest region will amplify
and move southeast into the Ohio Valley this evening. Frontal
boundary appears to be setting up near the NC/SC border and air
mass south of the front becoming moderately unstable. Stronger
instability appears to be setting up over north Ga where mid
level lapse rates steeper and higher theta-e air located. As
cold front moves east expect this more unstable air to spread
into SC in the warm sector as temperatures rise to near 90.
Expect SFC based CAPE around 2000 J/kg as cap over central SC
weakens. CAMS suggest a MCS possible this evening near a triple
point low over the Upstate moving east near the front where
convergence will be strongest. SPC has slight risk north
Midlands. The convection may propagate to the southeast in warm
sector as outflows develop which increases severe threat for at
least the Columbia area. Therefore, raised pops all areas to
account for this potential. The severe threat appears to focused
in the early evening. Convection will move east and diminish
overnight. Mixing ahead of cold front will keep temps up a
bit...(upper 50s) by morning mainly in the Piedmont and west
Midlands with mid 60s in the east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Cold front will be pushing east of the forecast area early Wednesday
morning, with cooler and drier air filtering into the area through
the day.  The temperatures during the afternoon hours will be a good
10 to 15 degrees cooler than previous few days, with afternoon highs
across the Pee Dee in the lower 70s, while areas across the southern
CSRA reach the upper 70s.  Winds during the afternoon expected to
remain breezy, but below lake wind advisory criteria at this time.

The dry weather and below normal temperatures will remain through
Thursday night as high pressure settles across the area. As for t
Temperatures, Lows each night fall into the 40s.  Highs on Thursday
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Temperatures continue to be below normal through Monday.  The deep
eastern US trough will bring another shortwave and surface front
into and through the area Friday night.  Moisture continues to be
limited ahead of the front which will also limit instability. Kept
mention of chance pops in rain showers Friday night with the frontal
passage. High temperatures will generally be in the 70s with lows in
the 40s to lower 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Guidance supports VFR Conditions through the period although
there is a threat of organized convection this evening. The
main threat for convection appears to be north of the
terminals...but elevated threat for CAE and CUB.

A frontal boundary has set up along the NC/SC border and the air
mass south of the front will be moderately to strongly unstable
this afternoon and evening. A weak area of low pressure is
expected to develop in the Upstate early this evening. Strong
convection may develop near the front/low pressure triple point
and track east-southeast this evening as a meso convective
system. Satellite at 17z indicating scattered cumulus across the
area with high thin clouds. Expect an increase in cumulus this
afternoon with mid level ceilings dominating. Will mention
thunderstorms in the vicinity at CAE and CUB this evening but
not at other terminals at the moment. Southwest winds 10 to 15
knots with gusts to around 20 knots diminishing this evening
then becoming west near 10 knots as cold front moves through
the area. Drier air will filter into the area Wednesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...A cold front will move into the
area Friday into Friday night with possible restrictions in
showers.

&&

.CAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
SC...None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Columbia SC
501 AM EDT Tue May 5 2020

GAZ040-063>065-077-SCZ016-018-020>022-025>031-035>038-041-115-116-
060915-
Lincoln-McDuffie-Columbia-Richmond-Burke-Chesterfield-McCormick-
Newberry-Fairfield-Kershaw-Edgefield-Saluda-Lexington-Richland-Lee-
Aiken-Sumter-Barnwell-Orangeburg-Calhoun-Clarendon-Bamberg-
Northern Lancaster-Southern Lancaster-
501 AM EDT Tue May 5 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the Midlands of South Carolina
and the Central Savannah River area of Georgia.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Isolated to scattered severe storms may develop this evening along
a warm front in the Northern Midlands. Gusty winds and large hail
are the main threats.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Wednesday through Monday.

The probability for widespread hazardous weather is low.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed this evening.