Special Weather Statement, NWS Buffalo, NY

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
522 PM EDT Thu Aug 27 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
An active period of weather lies ahead for the next few days as a
frontal boundary lingers nearby through the first half of the
weekend. This will mean periods of showers and thunderstorms through
Saturday which may bring heavy rain to parts of the region. Cooler
and drier air will settle into the region Sunday and into early next
week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
The strong to severe convection should end over the next couple
hours. Additional showers and isolated thunderstorms will be
possible through late evening, as another wave moves along the
stalled frontal boundary across the area. But this activity is
not expected to be severe. Patchy fog is also possible late
tonight as skies clear a bit. Low temperatures will be in the
mid 60s south of Lake Ontario and in the mid 50s east of Lake
Ontario.

Friday, a brief break in precipitation is expected for most of the
area, except the Western Southern Tier, where some showers are
expected to continue from overnight. The frontal boundary south of
the area will slowly lift back north as a warm front. As the front
lifts north, a few shortwave troughs will drop southeast out of the
Great Lakes, helping to expand shower coverage. As the warm front
moves through, some increased instability will be present, allowing
for some thunderstorms within these areas. High temperatures on
Friday will be in the mid 70s for the North Country and in the upper
70s to near 80 elsewhere.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
Friday night and Saturday, shower coverage will expand and fill
in as a surface low approaches the area and a surge in moisture
pushes north into the region. PWATs will start to increase
Friday afternoon and max out around 2.00 inches Friday night and
Saturday morning. Part of this surge in moisture is the far
northern extent of the moisture shield from Hurricane Laura as
the system tracks across the Tennessee Valley and becomes extra
tropical within a developing low amplitude trough over the
eastern third of the country. Showers with periods of heavy
rainfall will push across the area Friday night into Saturday
morning. Some thunderstorms will also be possible with CAPE
values increasing to around 1,000 J/kg, to as much as 1,500
J/kg. Showers and thunderstorms will shift east as the sfc low
tracks east and its associated cold front moves through Saturday
afternoon. Rainfall amounts for Friday night into Saturday
should generally be in the 1.00-2.00 inch range with some
locally heavier amounts to 3.00 inches possible with any heavier
rainfall within thunderstorms. Temperatures Friday night will
be in the upper 50s to mid 60s. High temperatures on Saturday
will be in the mid to upper 70s.

Saturday night, showers and storms will continue to shift east as
the area of low pressure and cold front track east. A few showers
and thunderstorms will linger through the night, with precip
potential decreasing through the night from west to east.
Temperatures on Saturday night will be in the low to upper 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure will build into the region for Sunday and Monday,
bringing dry weather, and cooler temperatures, especially for
Sunday. Highs on Sunday will be in the mid 60s to near 70, with
some low 60s possible for the Tug Hill. Monday, temperatures
will warm some to the mid and upper 70s for areas south of Lake
Ontario and to the mid 60s to near 70 for the North Country.
Lows Sunday and Monday night will generally be in the mid 40s
across the higher terrain to the mid and upper 50s for areas
closer to the lakes and in the lower elevations.

Shower potential will increase on Tuesday as an area of low pressure
and associated warm front approaches the region. Showers will
continue through the rest of the period as the sfc low and
associated fronts tracks through the area. Temperatures will warm to
the low 70s to near 80 for Tuesday and Wednesday. Temperatures will
warm slightly for Thursday with highs in the mid 70s to mid 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Ongoing strong to severe convection will diminish through the
evening. A few showers and an isolated thunderstorms may linger
as a stalled frontal boundary remains across the area. Cigs
should hold in the low end VFR or MVFR range through much of
the night, although IFR cigs are possible at KART. There is
some potential for patchy IFR fog to develop after 06z, given
the recent heavy rainfall.

Outlook...
Friday through Saturday...Mainly VFR. Expect areas of IFR/MVFR
in periodic showers and thunderstorms.
Sunday through Tuesday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
A frontal boundary across eastern Lake Ontario will remain in
place this evening with brisk southwest winds over Lake Erie
where Small Craft Advisories remain in effect through the
evening.

Winds will subside later tonight, with much calmer conditions
on the lakes for the end of the week. However, showers and
storms will once again be on the increase from southwest to
northeast during the day on Friday.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement until midnight EDT tonight for NYZ010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EDT tonight for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
         LEZ020.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Fries/JM/TMA
NEAR TERM...JM/TMA
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...JM/TMA
MARINE...JM/TMA

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