Severe Thunderstorm Warning 104, NWS Buffalo, NY

799 
WWUS51 KBUF 152044
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
344 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

NYC003-009-013-029-037-055-063-073-121-152130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-201115T2130Z/
Wyoming NY-Cattaraugus NY-Erie NY-Niagara NY-Orleans NY-
Chautauqua NY-Allegany NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
344 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST
FOR WYOMING...CATTARAUGUS...EASTERN ERIE...EASTERN NIAGARA...
ORLEANS...SOUTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA...WESTERN ALLEGANY...GENESEE AND
NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 342 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 8 miles west of Waterport to 10 miles east of
Frewsburg, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...70 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect considerable tree damage. Damage is likely to mobile 
         homes, roofs, and outbuildings.

Locations impacted include...
Medina, Lyndonville, Albion, Corfu, Oakfield, Batavia, Alden, East 
Aurora, Holland, Attica, Warsaw, Springville, Little Valley, 
Ellicottville, and Randolph.

 This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 48A and 47.
 Interstate 86 between exits 14 and 28.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

This is a DANGEROUS SITUATION. These storms have a history of 
widespread wind damage across northern Ohio and northwest 
Pennsylvania. SEEK SHELTER NOW inside a sturdy structure and stay 
away from windows.
 
&&

LAT...LON 4201 7921 4242 7897 4267 7875 4308 7859
      4341 7851 4342 7837 4338 7780 4200 7822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2042Z 254DEG 58KT 4335 7842 4210 7896 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...70MPH
 
$$

Hitchcock

907 
WWUS51 KBUF 152101
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
401 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

NYC013-063-152111-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-201115T2130Z/
Niagara NY-Chautauqua NY-
401 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN NIAGARA AND
SOUTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch remains in effect until 600 PM EST for
western New York.

LAT...LON 4201 7879 4242 7862 4278 7838 4303 7825
      4340 7815 4338 7780 4200 7822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 256DEG 56KT 4341 7807 4216 7862 

$$

NYC003-009-029-037-055-073-121-152130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-201115T2130Z/
Wyoming NY-Cattaraugus NY-Erie NY-Orleans NY-Allegany NY-Genesee NY-
Monroe NY-
401 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST
FOR WYOMING...EASTERN CATTARAUGUS...SOUTHEASTERN ERIE...EASTERN
ORLEANS...WESTERN ALLEGANY...GENESEE AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE
COUNTIES...

At 401 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from 6 miles northeast of Point Breeze to near Salamanca,
moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Batavia, Olean, Brockport, Albion, Salamanca, Hamlin Beach State
Park, Allegany State Park, Letchworth State Park, Le Roy and Perry.

 This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 between exits 48 and 47.
 Interstate 86 between exits 21 and 28.

LAT...LON 4201 7879 4242 7862 4278 7838 4303 7825
      4340 7815 4338 7780 4200 7822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 256DEG 56KT 4341 7807 4216 7862 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hitchcock

296 
WWUS51 KBUF 152118
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
418 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

NYC029-073-152127-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-201115T2130Z/
Erie NY-Orleans NY-
418 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR SOUTHEASTERN ERIE AND EASTERN
ORLEANS COUNTIES IS CANCELLED...

The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the warned 
area. Therefore, the warning has been cancelled.

Strong winds not related to thunderstorms will continue through this 
evening. High Wind Warnings are in effect.

LAT...LON 4201 7862 4299 7805 4339 7792 4338 7780
      4200 7822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 260DEG 57KT 4330 7781 4214 7829 

$$

NYC003-009-037-055-121-152130-
/O.CON.KBUF.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-201115T2130Z/
Wyoming NY-Cattaraugus NY-Allegany NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
418 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 430 PM EST
FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHEASTERN CATTARAUGUS...WESTERN ALLEGANY...
EASTERN GENESEE AND NORTHWESTERN MONROE COUNTIES...

At 417 PM EST, severe thunderstorms were located along a line
extending from Hilton to near Cuba, moving east at 65 mph.

HAZARD...60 mph wind gusts.

SOURCE...Radar indicated.

IMPACT...Expect damage to roofs, siding, and trees.

Locations impacted include...
Olean, Brockport, Hamlin Beach State Park, Letchworth State Park, Le
Roy, Perry, Warsaw, Pavilion, Churchville and Allegany.

 This includes the following highways...
 Interstate 90 near exit 47.
 Interstate 86 between exits 24 and 28.

LAT...LON 4201 7862 4299 7805 4339 7792 4338 7780
      4200 7822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2117Z 260DEG 57KT 4330 7781 4214 7829 

HAIL...<.75IN
WIND...60MPH
 
$$

Hitchcock

097 
WWUS51 KBUF 152131
SVSBUF

Severe Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
431 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

NYC003-009-037-055-121-152140-
/O.EXP.KBUF.SV.W.0104.000000T0000Z-201115T2130Z/
Wyoming NY-Cattaraugus NY-Allegany NY-Genesee NY-Monroe NY-
431 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR EASTERN WYOMING...SOUTHEASTERN
CATTARAUGUS...WESTERN ALLEGANY...EASTERN GENESEE AND NORTHWESTERN
MONROE COUNTIES HAS EXPIRED...
    
The storms which prompted the warning have moved out of the area.
Therefore, the warning has been allowed to expire.

A separate Severe Thunderstorm Warning remains in effect for much of 
the Genesee Valley.

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch also remains in effect until 600 PM EST 
for western New York.

LAT...LON 4201 7862 4299 7805 4339 7792 4338 7780
      4200 7822
TIME...MOT...LOC 2130Z 270DEG 56KT 4333 7763 4217 7812 

$$

Hitchcock

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
127 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
A strong area of low pressure will pass to the north and west of the
region today, with the trailing cold front crossing the area this
afternoon. This will bring a few periods of showers, along with
strong, damaging winds to much of the region today and tonight. In
addition to the general wind, a narrow line of thunderstorms along
the cold front may also produce damaging winds. Colder air will move
back into the region behind this system, with lake effect rain and
snow at times east and southeast of the lakes tonight through
Tuesday night. This may produce relatively minor accumulations in
the more persistent bands.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
...DAMAGING WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

Radar imagery showing a broad area of showers across much of the
region early this afternoon, with periods of showers continuing for
the remainder of the daylight hours. We are closely monitoring
upstream convective trends. A line of low topped showers and
scattered thunderstorms along the cold front has a history of
producing 50+ knot gusts and damage over Ohio. If this line holds
together, severe thunderstorms with damaging winds are possible this
afternoon and early evening in addition to the general wind risk.

A very deep yet progressive mid level trough will move across the
Great Lakes this afternoon and evening, taking on a negative tilt
with time. The associated surface low will pass south of James Bay
through tonight while deepening to around 979MB. Its trailing cold
front will enter Western NY around 3 p.m. today, then move rapidly
east across the eastern Lake Ontario region around 7 p.m.

WINDS...

A very strong 75 knot low level jet is overhead in the warm sector
of the maturing system. Warm advection and a shallow inversion will
prevent the brunt of this low level jet from mixing down in most
areas. Nonetheless...it will become quite windy areawide, with gusts
of 40+ mph common in many areas. The stable layer near the ridge
tops and low level jet component perpendicular to terrain will
support stronger downslope wind gusts to the lee of the Chautauqua
Ridge along the Lake Erie shore, with a few gusts to 55 mph until
the arrival of the cold front. Downslope winds are also possible
through mid to late afternoon on the northern slopes of the Tug
Hill, with terrain channeling also possible in the Black River
valley. Gusts may also approach 60 mph here.

Following the cold front, the wind event will transition into a more
traditional high wind event with the strongest winds focusing
northeast of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Model guidance continues to
support a tropopause fold and stratospheric PV intrusion as the base
of the trough crosses the eastern Great Lakes, with the 1.5 PVU
surface decending to around 550 MB. This, combined with strong cold
advection and post-frontal pressure rises will support a period of
strong subsidence and steep lapse rates through the low/mid levels.
The magnitude of post-frontal winds aloft suggest gusts of 65 mph
northeast of Lake Erie from Buffalo to Rochester. A few 70 mph gusts
are possible close to Lake Erie. The strongest gusts northeast of
Lake Erie will be mid afternoon through mid evening. Gusts across
Jefferson County will likely be closer to 60 mph this evening.
Farther inland, expect gusts of around 50 mph from the interior
Southern Tier through the Finger Lakes.

PRECIPITATION...

Widespread, light to moderate showers will continue through early
afternoon. There will then be a brief band of more concentrated
showers and possibly a thunderstorm along the cold front. There may
be a few brief downpours, but the fast motion of the rain will limit
rain amounts to a little under 0.50" in most areas. The higher
terrain east of Lake Ontario will see around 0.75".

In the wake of the system lake effect rain will develop northeast of
Lake Erie by early evening. This band of rain will initially be over
the Buffalo Northtowns, then drift slowly south to the Southtowns
later this evening before reaching the western Southern Tier late
tonight as boundary layer flow veers more westerly. The rain will
mix with snow overnight across the higher terrain, with very minor
accumulations possible on the hills. Lake effect rain and wet snow
showers will continue Monday across the western Southern Tier and
the Boston Hills and Wyoming County. Spotty 1-3 inch accumulations
are expected late tonight through Monday for the highest terrain,
with little or nothing at lower elevations.

East of Lake Ontario lake effect rain will setup this evening near
Watertown, then drift south to the northern Tug Hill by late
tonight. Lake effect showers of rain and snow will continue across
the Tug Hill region Monday, with snow favored at higher elevations
and rain at lower elevations. Expect several inches of accumulation
across the highest elevations of the Tug Hill, with little or no
accumulation at lower elevations.

CONVECTION...

Upstream radars show a well developed line of low topped showers and
a few thunderstorms along the cold front. Latest high resolution
CAMS guidance suggests a good chance this line will hold together as
it crosses our region. Instability is extremely limited, but the
strongly forced environment along the cold front will support
maintenance of the fine line of low topped convection. Extremely
strong winds aloft will support the risk of isolated damaging wind
gusts to near 70 mph if this line of storms maintains itself.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A large scale trough will remain in place over the eastern third of
the U.S. and Canada during most of this period. This will allow for
continued active weather with cooler than normal temperatures.

Monday night, a weak lake response will remain in place through the
early portion of the evening, especially east of Lake Ontario where
temperatures will be a bit cooler. The lake response will strengthen
late Monday evening as a shortwave trough approaches the area from
the Upper Midwest late Monday into Tuesday morning. A cold front
will cross the area, and bring most of the lake bands fully inland
with its passage. Timing on the cold frontal passage looks generally
around daybreak on Tuesday morning, but there is some model
disagreement still with timing of the front. The best chance for
accumulating snow will be across the higher terrain of the North
Country, with some snow also accumulating over the higher terrain of
the Western Southern Tier. Lower elevations can expect mostly a rain
or rain/snow mix through the early morning on Tuesday. Snowfall
amounts over the Tug Hill on Monday night will be around 1 to 3
inches, and in the higher terrain of the Western Southern Tier
around 1 to 2 inches will be possible. Lows on Monday night will be
in the upper 20s to around 30 for the higher terrain, and in the low
to mid 30s for the lower elevations.

Tuesday, behind the passing cold front, winds will begin to shift to
the northwest. As mentioned above, the cold front should briefly
dislodge the lake bands away from the lakes and bring them inland,
bringing rain/snow showers to a more widespread area. Cold air
advection behind the cold front and a passing shortwave trough will
cause lake bands to redevelop southeast of the lakes during the day
on Tuesday. 850H temps of around -7C on Tuesday morning should cool
to around -11C by the late afternoon. Some drier air will be moving
into the region behind the cold front and shortwave trough, so that
will limit some of the lake response. Some guidance is suggesting an
upstream connection with the Georgian Bay and Lake Huron, with a
band over the western end of Lake Ontario and a band over Lake Erie.
Should this become the setup, then where these bands set up, there
will be some locally higher precipitation amounts. If a lake band
sets up from the Georgian Bay and across Lake Ontario, placement of
the band looks best from Niagara County southeast into Genesee
County and into Livingston County during the afternoon on Tuesday,
and slowly shifting eastward later in the afternoon. If a lake band
sets up over Lake Erie with a Lake Huron connection, it looks like
the best chance for precipitation would be Chautauqua County,
especially over the higher terrain of the Chautauqua Ridge.
Precipitation closer to the lakes will be a rain or rain/snow mix,
and change to snow farther inland over the higher terrain. Cold air
advection on Tuesday will also change precip to snow slowly through
the afternoon with lowering elevation. The higher terrain of the Tug
Hill is expected to get a quick half inch or so of snow in the
morning before the band drops south. Otherwise the higher terrain of
the Western Southern Tier should also see around an inch of snow.
Interior areas can expect a coating of snow as temperatures cool
through the afternoon. Guidance is spread on temperatures still for
Tuesday and any fluctuation in what temperatures are on Tuesday can
greatly alter snow potential and amounts. High temperatures on
Tuesday will be in the low to mid 30s for the higher terrain and in
the mid to upper 30s for the lower elevations.

Tuesday night, any remaining lake response will all be in the form
of snow as continued cold air advection brings temps down through
the night. 850H temps cool to around -12C for WNY and around -15C
for the North Country, with some model guidance even cooler than
this. These cooler temperatures with the larger scale trough over
the region still will help continue some of the lake response
Tuesday night. An area of high pressure over the mid-Mississippi
Valley will push east causing increased ridging over the area later
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. This will start to cut down on
the lake response some over the area. Lows on Tuesday night will be
in the low to mid 20s for areas south of Lake Ontario where lake
clouds are in place, and in the mid teens for the North Country.

Wednesday, a weak lake response will remain in place southeast of
the lakes, tapering off through the morning. This will occur as
ridging continues to increase through the day, and warm air
advection increases 850H temps through the day as well. Temperatures
will be in the low to mid 30s south of Lake Ontario and in the low
20s to low 30s for areas east of Lake Ontario.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
High pressure will be across the eastern Great Lakes Wednesday night
and dry conditions will continue through Thursday. A chilly airmass
will be in place Wednesday night with highs in the upper 20s to mid
30s and lows in the teens to 20s. Cooler conditions possible across
the higher terrain across the western Southern Tier and Tug Hill.

A warm-up is expected Thursday and Friday with high temperatures
reaching the 50s across the region. Forecast consensus has high
pressure moving south and east of the region Friday maintaining dry
conditions into the weekend. A warm front will approach the region
Saturday and Sunday and chances for rain showers increase.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fairly widespread light to moderate showers will continue through
mid afternoon. Strong low pressure will then pass to our north and
west. Expect a narrow band of heavy showers and possibly a few
thunderstorms along the cold front that will be capable of producing
convective wind gusts in excess of 50 knots along with very brief
IFR conditions.

Strong winds will continue behind the front, with gusts exceeding 50
knots late in the afternoon and evening northeast of Lakes Erie and
Ontario including KBUF, KIAG, KROC, and KART. Winds will then slowly
back off overnight, but gusts will continue to exceed 35 knots at
times right through Monday afternoon.

There will be some lake effect rain showers northeast of the lakes
this evening. These will shift southward as the flow becomes more
WSW late tonight, and also will mix with snow across higher terrain.
Expect mainly VFR flight conditions tonight outside of lake effect
showers. Within lake effect bands there will be MVFR in most
locations, with IFR where precipitation changes to snow across
higher terrain. Lake effect rain and snow showers will continue
Monday east of the lakes, with MVFR and local IFR.

Outlook...

Tuesday...Lake effect rain and snow southeast of the lakes with
local MVFR/IFR.
Wednesday...Lingering lake effect snow showers to the southeast of
the Lakes with local MVFR/IFR, ending in the afternoon.
Thursday and Friday...VFR.

&&

.MARINE...
Following coordination, we have issued storm warnings for a brief
period late this afternoon and evening for Lake Erie. Winds will
increase behind a cold front, with about a 3 hours period of storms
expected. Also issued a Gale Warning for portions of the St.
Lawrence River.

Strong low pressure will track to the south and east of James Bay
tonight, bottoming out around 979 MB. A trailing cold front will
cross the eastern Great Lakes late this afternoon. South winds will
increase this morning ahead of the system, reaching 30 to 35 knots
on Lake Erie and the northeast end of Ontario.

The strongest winds will develop following the cold front. This
will produce storms to 50 knots behind the front on Lake Erie,
and high end gales to 45 knots this evening on Lake Ontario.
Lower end gales may continue into Monday before winds start to
gradually subside later Monday and Monday night.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A Lakeshore Flood Warning is in effect for the east end of both
lakes. Model guidance has trended stronger with sustained winds
to 50 knots on Lake Erie and to 40 knots on Lake Ontario. Levels
on Lake Erie are expected to reach around 10 feet above low water
datum at Buffalo. This level requires the addition of Niagara
County into the warning for the Upper Niagara River, with flooding
possible along the shores of Grand Island and Cayuga Island.

Wave action will build on Lake Ontario following the passage of
this front, with lakeshore flooding and erosion this evening
through Monday afternoon at the east end of the lake.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...High Wind Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ001>003-007-008-
     010>012-019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ001-010-
     019-085.
     Lakeshore Flood Warning from 6 PM this evening to 4 PM EST
     Monday for NYZ006-007.
     Wind Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for NYZ004>006.
     Wind Advisory until 11 PM EST this evening for NYZ013-014-020-
     021.
MARINE...Storm Warning until 9 PM EST this evening for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST this afternoon for LEZ040-041.
         Gale Warning until 10 PM EST this evening for LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for LOZ030.
         Gale Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for LOZ042-043-062.
         Gale Warning until 4 PM EST Monday for LOZ044-045-063>065.
         Gale Warning until 1 AM EST Monday for SLZ022.
         Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST Monday for SLZ024.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Hitchcock
NEAR TERM...Hitchcock
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HSK
AVIATION...Hitchcock
MARINE...Hitchcock
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...Apffel/Hitchcock

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

NYZ008-161915-
Lewis-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ007-161915-
Jefferson-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ013-014-020-021-161915-
Livingston-Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ002-003-011-012-161915-
Orleans-Monroe-Genesee-Wyoming-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ001-010-019-085-161915-
Niagara-Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   High Wind Warning.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ004-161915-
Wayne-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ006-161915-
Oswego-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...
...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM
EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.
   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Lakeshore Flood Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005-161915-
Northern Cayuga-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Wind Advisory.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ030-161915-
Lower Niagara River-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ024-161915-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Saint Lawrence
River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

SLZ022-161915-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Saint Lawrence
River.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ044-045-064-065-161915-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ042-043-062-161915-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 AM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LOZ063-161915-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST MONDAY...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Ontario.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-161915-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...
...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM EST THIS EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.
   Storm Warning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-161915-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
204 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING...
...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 510 IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie.

.DAY ONE...This afternoon and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Gale Warning.
   Severe Thunderstorm Watch.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Hitchcock

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
107 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

NYZ001>003-010>013-019>021-085-152015-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Northern Erie-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Chautauqua-Cattaraugus-Allegany-Southern Erie-
Including the cities of Niagara Falls, Medina, Rochester,
Buffalo, Batavia, Warsaw, Geneseo, Jamestown, Olean, Wellsville,
Orchard Park, and Springville
107 PM EST Sun Nov 15 2020

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...

A line of severe thunderstorms over Ohio and Lake Erie at 1 PM
EST is moving rapidly east, and is expected to cross Western NY
during the mid to late afternoon. If this line of thunderstorms
maintains intensity, it may produce damaging winds across Western
NY. The line of thunderstorms will also mark the rapid onset of a
more general area of strong winds that will last through the
evening hours.

Hitchcock

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
324 PM EST SUN NOV 15 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0256 PM     MARINE TSTM WIND 2 NW DUNKIRK            42.49N 79.36W
11/15/2020  M66 MPH          LEZ041             NY   C-MAN STATION

&&

HSK