Gale Warning 10, NWS Buffalo, NY

987 
WHUS71 KBUF 301903
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

LEZ040-041-010200-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201001T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 6 to 9 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-010315-
/O.EXB.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0600Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 2 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until 2 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-010000-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0000Z/
Lower Niagara River-
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-010200-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0200Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-010300-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-010315-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-010315-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201002T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
303 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 30 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

820 
WHUS71 KBUF 302333
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

LEZ040-041-010200-
/O.CON.KBUF.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201001T0200Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...GALE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds to 35 knots and waves 9 to 12 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 10 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Strong winds will cause hazardous waves which could 
  capsize or damage vessels and reduce visibility.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Mariners should alter plans to avoid these hazardous conditions.
Remain in port, seek safe harbor, alter course, and/or secure the
vessel for severe conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-010300-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0300Z/
Lower Niagara River-
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 10 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Lower Niagara River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LEZ020-010745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-010745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 3 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-010745-
/O.EXT.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0900Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-010745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-010745-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201002T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
733 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

680 
WHUS71 KBUF 010156
MWWBUF

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
956 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

LEZ040-041-011000-
/O.CAN.KBUF.GL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-201001T0200Z/
/O.EXA.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
956 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT THURSDAY...
...GALE WARNING IS CANCELLED...

* WHAT...West winds to 30 knots and waves 7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Erie from Ripley to 
  Buffalo.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ030-010300-
/O.CAN.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0300Z/
Lower Niagara River-
956 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...


$$

LEZ020-010900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0900Z/
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-
956 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ042-010900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0900Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin
Beach-
956 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots and waves 3 to 5 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from the Niagara 
  River to Hamlin Beach.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ043-044-011000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T2100Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
956 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 4 to 7 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Hamlin Beach 
  to Mexico Bay.

* WHEN...Until 5 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

LOZ045-011000-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201002T0300Z/
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint
Lawrence River-
956 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 25 knots and waves 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...The nearshore waters of Lake Ontario from Mexico Bay 
  to the Saint Lawrence River.

* WHEN...Until 11 PM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

SLZ022-024-010900-
/O.CON.KBUF.SC.Y.0092.000000T0000Z-201001T0900Z/
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
956 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 5 AM EDT
THURSDAY...

* WHAT...Southwest winds 15 to 20 knots.

* WHERE...The Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Saint 
  Regis.

* WHEN...Until 5 AM EDT Thursday.

* IMPACTS...Winds and/or waves will cause hazardous conditions 
  that could capsize or damage small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
738 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread rain will transition to lake effect rain east and
northeast of the Lakes this morning. Lake effect rain will continue
east and northeast of the Lakes through Friday. Cool weather
continues through the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Regional radar shows lake effect rain showers moving onshore
east of Lake Erie this morning. Brief heavy downpours are
expected through the morning commute. Lightning has been
observed over the Lake and briefly over the City of Buffalo
this morning. Can't rule out more lightning as more lake showers
stream into Metro Buffalo and the Northtowns this morning. A
band of light rain associated with a departing low pressure
system will track across eastern Lake Ontario and the North
Country this morning.

An upper level trough will settle across the Great Lakes and
Northeast through tonight. Strong, southwest flow will move into the
region while surface low pressure over southern New England deepens
and quickly moves into the Canadian Maritimes this morning. Cool air
with 850mb temperatures around +4 C will provide enough support for
lake induced rain showers today. Southwest flow along the long axis
of Lake Erie and deep layer moisture with equilibrium levels around
20k feet will allow lake showers to become organized northeast of
Lake Erie into this afternoon. Thunder will be possible through the
early afternoon. Localized rain amounts of 0.5 to 1.5 inches are
possible northeast of Lake Erie today. Very windy conditions are
expected today with gusts near 40 mph northeast of Lake Erie. These
strong winds will allow lake showers to move inland towards
Rochester Metro and eventually into the eastern Lake Ontario region.
Lake showers are also expected off Lake Ontario and into the Saint
Lawrence northern Tug Hill region. Localized amounts of up to a
quarter inch are expected across the northern Tug Hill region today.

Southwest winds will become more southerly by this evening as a
shortwave trough approaches from the western Great Lakes. Lake bands
will shift to the north in response to the wind shift leaving a
majority of the forecast area dry. This won't last long as the
shortwave trough coupled with upstream moisture causes widespread
showers to move across the region tonight. Winds will go back to
southwest and lake enhancement is expected northeast of the Lakes
overnight. Can't rule out thunder northeast of the Lakes this
evening.

Temperatures will reach the low 60s today and fall into the 40s
tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Lake effect to east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will be
ongoing on Thursday morning, though coverage may be less than what
occurs tonight as area will be between shortwaves to enhance the
lake effect. Gradually ramped pops upward late Thursday especially
closer to Lake Erie with approach of stronger shortwave and a
secondary cold front. As winds back more southwest ahead of the
front, expect the lake effect to focus farther northeast of Lake
Erie maybe even as far north as northern Erie county into Niagara
County. More favorable environment with deeper moisture should
result in some thunder in the strongest part of the lake effect
bands.

Eventually, lake effect will become more energized off the eastern
end of Lake Ontario once the shortwave rotates across later evening
into the overnight hours Thursday night. Possible that with winds
even more backed than over Lake Erie, most of the activity will only
impact northern Jefferson county toward the St. Lawrence River
valley. Once the shortwave trough settles directly across Lake
Ontario, models still insisting a lake induced sfc low forms over
eastern section of Lake Ontario by daybreak Friday. Such a scenario
is plausible given the more than ample over-water instability (H85
temps +3c giving lake/air delta t/s 15c). Exactly where the low
develops is uncertain, but possible that lake effect would shut down
for southeast portion of Lake Ontario at least to start Friday
morning with offshore winds while it would be quite frisky and
widespread over rest of Lake Ontario due to the enhanced convergence
with the low.

Eventually, later Friday morning the low is forecast to shift east
off the lake and so would expect lake effect to expand along much of
Lake Ontario. The lake effect combined with daytime heating should
allow showers to expand all the way into the Finger Lakes. Back off
Lake Erie, passage of the front tied to the low will allow winds to
veer to more west/northwest, so the lake effect will eventually
settle more into Southern Erie county and the western Southern Tier.
By afternoon on Friday, behind the front, forecast soundings show
inversions and overall lake equilibrium levels lowering steadily
into Friday night. Thus, lake effect will become less in coverage
and will weaken in intensity across the board by Friday night. Even
so, expect some lake effect to persist on northwest flow over parts
of the Southern Tier and especially to southeast of Lake Ontario
into the Finger Lakes. Where skies can partially clear out later
Friday night away from these areas, could see temps drop into middle
30s.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Broad upper level troughing will reside over the eastern third of
the country Saturday before a potent shortwave passes through the
trough for the later half of the weekend and first part of the work
week. Meanwhile down in the lower layers of the atmosphere, high
pressure will push in across the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast
Saturday into Saturday night which will promote some drier
conditions during this time. However, 0C temperatures at 850mb will
promote the continuance lake induced instability and thus lake
effect rain showers will be possible during this time especially to
southeast of Lake Ontario.

High pressure will continue to push east into the Northeast Sunday,
which will keep the majority of the day dry. Temps on Saturday
night could drop below freezing in favored cold spots if clouds
are thin enough. The next system associated with the aforementioned
potent shortwave aloft will make its way across the Central
Plains and into the eastern Great Lakes late Sunday and into
Monday. Expect chances for rain showers to increase from west to
east during Sunday night through Monday. Rain chances will
diminish from west to east Tuesday as the surface low pressure
system departs the eastern portions of the region.

Temperatures will remain below normal for most of the period before
returning to normal by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Lake effect rain showers will stream into western NY this
morning. Mostly VFR cigs at the moment but MVFR cigs are
possible in lake showers. Brief heavy downpours are expected in
lake showers and can't rule out lightning near KBUF today. Low
clouds are present across the higher terrain this morning
resulting in IFR at KJHW. These clouds should mix out towards
mid morning.

Light rain with MVFR cigs will move through KART this morning.
Lake effect showers will approach the terminal today however
most of the activity will stay to the northwest through the
afternoon. Brief periods of MVFR and heavy downpours are
possible.

Very windy today with southwest wind gusts near 30 to 35kts.

Lake induced rain showers continue this evening with most of the
activity northeast of the Lakes.

Outlook...

Thursday and Friday...MVFR with a chance of showers.
Saturday...VFR/MVFR with a chance of showers.
Sunday...Mainly VFR. Chance of showers late.

&&

.MARINE...
Winds and waves will ramp up this morning and will remain high
through Thursday. High-end small craft advisories, with winds over
25 kts across much of the area and waves over 6 feet at the east
end of the lakes, remain in place as outlined below.

The much colder air mass flowing across the warmer waters of Lake
Erie and Ontario will result in the potential for waterspouts the
rest of the week.

&&

.BUF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NY...Beach Hazards Statement from 11 AM EDT this morning through
     Thursday evening for NYZ005>007.
     Beach Hazards Statement through Thursday morning for NYZ010-
     019-085.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT Thursday for LEZ040-041.
         Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM EDT this afternoon for
         LEZ020.
         Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 5 PM EDT
         Thursday for LOZ043-044.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT this evening for
         LOZ042.
         Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM EDT Thursday for LOZ045.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HSK
NEAR TERM...HSK
SHORT TERM...JLA
LONG TERM...HSK/JLA
AVIATION...HSK
MARINE...JLA

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
529 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

NYZ001>004-008-011>014-020-021-010930-
Niagara-Orleans-Monroe-Wayne-Lewis-Genesee-Wyoming-Livingston-
Ontario-Cattaraugus-Allegany-
529 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western and north
central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ005>007-010930-
Northern Cayuga-Oswego-Jefferson-
529 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING
THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of central New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

NYZ010-019-085-010930-
Northern Erie-Chautauqua-Southern Erie-
529 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING...

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of western New York.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

Please listen to NOAA Weather Radio or go to weather.gov on the
Internet for more information about the following hazards.

   Beach Hazards Statement.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ040-041-LOZ042>045-062>065-010930-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Ripley to Dunkirk-
Lake Erie nearshore waters from Dunkirk to Buffalo-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario nearshore waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence
River-
Lake Ontario open waters from the Niagara River to Hamlin Beach-
Lake Ontario open waters from Hamlin Beach to Sodus Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Sodus Bay to Mexico Bay-
Lake Ontario open waters from Mexico Bay to the Saint Lawrence River-
529 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie and Lake
Ontario.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

There is a risk of waterspouts through tonight.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

There is a risk of waterspouts Thursday through Friday morning.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

LEZ020-LOZ030-SLZ022-024-010930-
Upper Niagara River and Buffalo Harbor-Lower Niagara River-
Saint Lawrence River from Cape Vincent to Ogdensburg-
Saint Lawrence River from Ogdensburg to Saint Regis-
529 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Lake Erie, Lake
Ontario and Saint Lawrence River.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

This product, along with other watches, warnings, advisories, and
statements issued by the National Weather Service office in Buffalo
can be found on the internet at http://www.weather.gov/buf

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
847 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

NYZ001-002-010-011-301330-
Orleans-Genesee-Niagara-Northern Erie-
847 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHEASTERN ERIE...SOUTHEASTERN
NIAGARA...SOUTHWESTERN ORLEANS AND NORTHWESTERN GENESEE COUNTIES...

At 846 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Clarence,
moving east at 50 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Clarence, Amherst, Akron, Oakfield, Shelby, Alabama, Elba, Clarence
Center, East Amherst, Wolcottsville, Millville and Rapids.

LAT...LON 4293 7867 4305 7875 4325 7827 4309 7814
TIME...MOT...LOC 1246Z 248DEG 43KT 4301 7865

TMA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1035 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

NYZ010-085-301515-
Southern Erie-Northern Erie-
1035 AM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...

At 1033 AM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Erie Basin
Marina, or 7 miles southwest of Buffalo, moving east at 45 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, North Tonawanda, Clarence,
Lackawanna, Kenmore, Depew, Tonawanda, Amherst, Lancaster, Hamburg,
East Aurora, Williamsville, Grand Island, Evans, Elma, Eden, Marilla
and Orchard Park.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57A and 49.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4276 7898 4280 7892 4284 7893 4291 7890
      4295 7892 4300 7902 4303 7888 4302 7888
      4302 7884 4304 7882 4308 7862 4307 7859
      4310 7851 4308 7850 4309 7848 4278 7849
      4278 7847 4274 7847 4264 7907 4273 7908
TIME...MOT...LOC 1433Z 252DEG 41KT 4285 7899

TMA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1219 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

NYZ010-085-301700-
Southern Erie-Northern Erie-
1219 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT ERIE COUNTY...

At 1218 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located over Lackawanna,
moving east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, West Seneca, Lackawanna, Depew, Lancaster,
Hamburg, East Aurora, Elma, Marilla, Orchard Park, Small Boat Harbor,
Erie Basin Marina, Alden, Blasdell, Wales Center, Elma Center,
Woodlawn Beach State Park and Billington Heights.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 57 and 50A, and near exit
49.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4292 7890 4299 7846 4287 7848 4287 7849
      4274 7849 4273 7892 4286 7893
TIME...MOT...LOC 1618Z 256DEG 36KT 4283 7883

TMA

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Buffalo NY
1243 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

NYZ010-301730-
Northern Erie-
1243 PM EDT Wed Sep 30 2020

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT NORTHERN ERIE COUNTY...

At 1243 PM EDT, a strong thunderstorm was located near Kenmore,
moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 30 mph and pea size hail are possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Buffalo, Cheektowaga, North Tonawanda, Clarence, Kenmore, Amherst,
Tonawanda, Williamsville, Grand Island, Akron, Clarence Center and
East Amherst.

This includes Interstate 90 between exits 51 and 49.

If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may cause
localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

LAT...LON 4304 7901 4306 7890 4302 7888 4302 7884
      4305 7883 4305 7881 4307 7880 4307 7874
      4308 7873 4308 7865 4309 7864 4307 7859
      4310 7856 4308 7846 4298 7847 4291 7890
      4295 7892 4296 7896 4300 7902
TIME...MOT...LOC 1643Z 247DEG 29KT 4295 7895

TMA