Flash Flood Warning 12, NWS Brownsville, TX

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
102 AM CDT Sun Jul 26 2020

.DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

&&

.AVIATION...Hazardous aviation conditions continue over the next
several hours as Hurricane Hanna continues to move inland. KHRL
went down earlier this evening due to a power hit, so have been
relying on radar and nearby observations to extrapolate conditions
at KHRL. Heavy rain will bring visibilities down periodically and
lead to slick runways at times. Winds will continue to shift out
of the south and then southeast later on Sunday as Hanna moves to
the southwest. Gusts have been gusting to 50 knots at KMFE and
near KHRL over the last hour or two and these gusts should
continue through the night. Kept LLWS for all the the TAF sites
through most of Sunday morning. Overall conditions will improve
east to west by midday tomorrow, with rain gradually diminishing
in the afternoon, becoming more showery and winds decreasing.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 642 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020/

..00z Aviation Update...

DISCUSSION...Updated for latest aviation discussion below.

AVIATION...Flying conditions continue to be very adverse across
Deep South Texas as Hurricane Hanna makes landfall across coastal
Kenedy County. Latest surface observations across the region show
generally MVFR ceilings in place, with a few VFR observations.
The main concern, other than the various flight rules, are the
very gusty winds occurring at the surface and just above the
surface. Gusts have generally been around 40-50 knots at MFE, HRL,
and BRO over the past few hours. Kept LLWS for all the the TAF
sites through most of Sunday morning. As Hanna continues to move
inland and moves more southwest, winds will turn more southerly to
southeasterly and increase further overnight tonight, especially
at HRL and MFE. Went ahead and removed TS out of all of the TAFs
with this update. There may be a few rumbles of thunder over the
next 24 hours, but Hanna is not producing much lightning right.
Will update the forecast if this changes. Overall conditions will
improve east to west by midday tomorrow, with rain gradually
diminishing in the afternoon, becoming more showery and winds
decreasing.

PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 502 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020/

.HURRICANE HANNA MAKING LANDFALL...

SHORT TERM (Tonight through Sunday Night): Hurricane Hanna is in
the process of transitioning from the western Gulf of Mexico to
the inland areas of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grand Valley, and
a plethora of Watches, Warnings, and Advisories (Hurricane
Warning, Tropical Storm Warning, Storm Surge Warning, Flash Flood
Watch, Coastal Flood Advisory, High Surf Advisory) are in effect
within the BRO CWFA. Conditions will deteriorate from now through
the overnight hours as Hanna treks west-southwest across the
region. Although Hanna is forecast to be just across the Rio
Grande River in Mexico around sunrise Sunday, additional showers
and thunderstorms moving inland on Sunday through Sunday night
could exacerbate any flooding that develops tonight within Deep
South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.

LONG TERM (Monday through Saturday): A general elongated 500 mb
trough axis will remain in place across Deep South TX and the RGV
from Mon through Wed. This will combine with leftover tropical
moisture from the remnants of Hanna to maintain the conv chcs
during the first half of next week. The 500 mb ridging will start
rebuilding over the TX Coastline and the RGV during the latter
half of the week allowing for hotter temps and lower conv chcs.
The GFS wants to hold on to the pops a bit longer versus the ECMWF
which shuts down the pops pretty quickly after Wed.

MARINE (Now through Sunday Night): Buoy 42020 reported southeast
winds around 52 knots gusting to around 70 knots with seas of 21
feet with a period of 9 seconds at 1450 CDT/1950 UTC. Dangerous
marine conditions are expected tonight through Sunday as Hurricane
Hanna transitions from the open waters of the Lower Texas Coast to
the inland areas of Deep South Texas and the Rio Grande Valley.
Although winds and seas will improve markedly for Sunday night, a
Small Craft Advisory may still be needed for the Laguna Madre and
Gulf of Mexico waters from 0 to 60 nautical miles offshore due to
remaining strong winds and rough seas.

Monday through Thursday: Surface ridging over the Gulf of Mex will
maintain a general light to moderate onshore flow pattern along
the lower TX coastline next week. Some of the Gulf swells may
experience SCA swells into Mon with conditions improving
afterwards. Some SCEC swells may linger across the Gulf waters
through Thursday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
BAYVIEW/PORT ISABEL  87  80  88  78 /  80  60  60  50
BROWNSVILLE          86  80  87  78 /  80  60  70  50
HARLINGEN            85  78  88  76 /  80  70  70  50
MCALLEN              83  78  85  77 /  90  70  80  50
RIO GRANDE CITY      84  76  87  76 /  80  70  80  50
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND   85  82  84  80 /  80  60  50  50

&&

.BRO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Tropical Storm Warning for TXZ248>257-351-353.

     Flash Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ248>257-351-353.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday morning for TXZ256-257.

     Coastal Flood Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ256-
     257.

     High Surf Advisory until 9 AM CDT Monday for TXZ256-257.

GM...Tropical Storm Warning for GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175.

&&

This product is also available on the web at:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/RGV

Aviation Update...69-Farris

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
521 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

TXZ248>257-351-353-262300-
Zapata-Jim Hogg-Brooks-Inland Kenedy-Starr-Southern Hidalgo-
Inland Willacy-Inland Cameron-Coastal Willacy-Coastal Cameron-
Coastal Kenedy-Northern Hidalgo-
521 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of Deep South
Texas.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for Kenedy, Brooks, and Willacy
County until early Monday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Jim Hogg, Zapata,
Starr, Hidalgo, and Cameron County until early Monday morning.

A Flash Flood Watch is in effect for all of Deep South Texas and
the Rio Grande Valley until 7 PM CDT Sunday.

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for the coastal portions of
Kenedy County until early Monday morning.

A Coastal Flood Advisory is in effect for the coastal portions of
Cameron and Willacy County until 7 PM CDT Sunday.

A High Surf Advisory and a High Rip Current Risk are in effect
for the coastal portions of Cameron and Willacy County until 9 AM
CDT Monday.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS Brownsville Office while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

GMZ130-132-135-150-155-170-175-262300-
Laguna Madre from the Port of Brownsville to the Arroyo Colorado-
Laguna Madre from the Arroyo Colorado To 5 NM north of Port
Mansfield TX-
Laguna Madre from 5 nm north of Port Mansfield to Baffin Bay TX-
Coastal waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande out 20 nm-
Coastal waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield out 20 nm-
Waters from Port Mansfield to the Rio Grande extending from 20 to
60 nm-
Waters from Baffin Bay to Port Mansfield extending from 20 to
60 nm-
521 PM CDT Sat Jul 25 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for portions of The Gulf of
Mexico and The Laguna Madre.

.DAY ONE...Tonight

A Hurricane Warning will remain in effect for the Laguna Madre
north of the mouth of the Arroyo Colorado and for all of the Gulf
of Mexico waters until early Monday morning.

A Tropical Storm Warning will remain in effect for the Laguna
Madre south of the mouth of the Arroyo Colorado until early
Monday morning.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Sunday through Friday

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation may be needed. Please relay any information
about observed severe weather to the NWS Brownsville Office while
following all local, state, and CDC guidelines.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1108 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1103 PM     FLASH FLOOD      LA FERIA                26.16N 97.82W
07/25/2020                   CAMERON            TX   EMERGENCY MNGR

            2 ONGOING WATER RESCUES IN LA FERIA.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1119 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 PM     FLASH FLOOD      2 SW PORT MANSFIELD     26.53N 97.45W
07/25/2020                   WILLACY            TX   BROADCAST MEDIA

            HIGHWAY 186 FLOODED OUTSIDE OF PORT
            MANSFIELD; POSSIBLY CUTTING OFF THE CITY.

&&

MB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1131 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1115 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG MCALLEN                 26.21N 98.24W
07/25/2020                   HIDALGO            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF LARGE HEALTHY TREE BROKEN
            IN HALF AND SMALL TREE WITH NUMEROUS BROKEN
            BRANCHES. MESSAGE RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA
            WITH PHOTOS AND VIDEO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1142 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1125 PM     NON-TSTM WND DMG 1 N ELSA                26.31N 98.00W
07/25/2020                   HIDALGO            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORT OF LARGE TREE WITH BROKEN
            LIMBS. REPORT VIA SOCIAL MEDIA VIDEO.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1204 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HARLINGEN               26.20N 97.69W
07/26/2020                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            PUBLIC REPORTED FLOODING IN THE AREA AND
            WATER IS NOW ENTERING HOMES. RELAYED VIA
            SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

AM

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
1210 AM CDT SUN JUL 26 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1202 AM     FLASH FLOOD      HARLINGEN               26.20N 97.69W
07/26/2020                   CAMERON            TX   PUBLIC

            CORRECTS PREVIOUS FLASH FLOOD REPORT FROM
            HARLINGEN. PUBLIC REPORTED FLOODING IN THE
            AREA WITH WATER UP TO KNEES. WATER IS NOW
            ENTERING HOMES. RELAYED VIA SOCIAL MEDIA.

&&

AM