Small Craft Advisory 36, NWS Boston/Norton, MA

191 
WHUS71 KBOX 081113
MWWBOX

URGENT - MARINE WEATHER MESSAGE
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
713 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

ANZ235-081215-
/O.CAN.KBOX.SC.Y.0036.000000T0000Z-200308T1400Z/
Rhode Island Sound-
713 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

Waves have fallen below Small Craft limits and will continue to
diminish as the day progresses. Therefore the Small Craft Advisory
has been cancelled.

$$

ANZ256-081915-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-200309T0000Z/
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out
to 20 nm South of Block Island-
713 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 20 kt and seas 4 to 6 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard 
  extending out to 20 nm South of Block Island.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ251-081915-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-200308T2000Z/
Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
713 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt and seas 5 to 8 feet.

* WHERE...Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay.

* WHEN...Until 4 PM EDT this afternoon.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ250-081915-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-200308T2200Z/
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank
National Marine Sanctuary-
713 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 5 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 7 
  to 10 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen 
  Bank National Marine Sanctuary.

* WHEN...Until 6 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

ANZ254-255-081915-
/O.CON.KBOX.SC.Y.0034.000000T0000Z-200309T0000Z/
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard
and Nantucket-
713 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS
EVENING...

* WHAT...West winds 10 to 15 kt with gusts up to 25 kt and seas 
  7 to 10 feet.

* WHERE...Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to 
  Nantucket MA out 20 nm and Coastal Waters extending out to 25 
  nm South of Marthas Vineyard and Nantucket.

* WHEN...Until 8 PM EDT this evening.

* IMPACTS...Conditions will be hazardous to small craft.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Inexperienced mariners, especially those operating smaller
vessels, should avoid navigating in hazardous conditions.

&&

$$

BL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
428 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds into the Mid Atlantic states today and
provides a much milder flow of air into southern New England today
and especially Monday. Cold front approaches on Tuesday, which will
bring scattered showers. Lots of uncertainty past Tuesday in
the expected weather. Toss up at this point in time, but the
next best shot of precipitation is on Friday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...

415 AM Update:

Deep layer ridge over the OH valley and Great Lakes region builds
northeast into New England today. Thus expect dry weather along with
a warming trend given rising heights aloft. 850 mb temps warm from
about -6C early this morning to about 0C by 21z today. Model
soundings show a deep boundary layer this afternoon with mixing up
to 850 mb. This combined with west winds providing
downslope/adiabatic warming leaned toward the warm guidance with
highs 55-60.  So after a cold start a nice rebound in temps this
later this morning into the afternoon.

Another very dry day with RH lowering to around 25% this afternoon
given initially dry airmass combined with deep boundary layer mixing
and downslope wind component as well. Overall very pleasant weather
with abundant sunshine thru high clouds at times (spilling over the
ridge) and a modest west breeze 10-20 mph. Normal high for today is
40-45, so about 15 degs above normal. Enjoy!

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM MONDAY/...

*** Highs 65-70 Monday away from the south coast ***

Tonight ...

Not nearly as chilly as previous nights with low level WAA via SW
flow. Min temps mainly in the 30s but some upper 20s possible in
northwest MA where winds may decouple.

Monday ...

Warm sector airmass overspreading the region with 925 mb temps
rising to about +11C by 21z. Boundary layer mixing not as deep as
today with mixing to about 925 mb. This should supports highs of 65-
70 with a few low 70s possible Metro West Boston into the Merrimack
River Valley. Considerably cooler south coast given SW winds
streaming across the cool ocean waters with SSTs in the 40s.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...

Highlights...

* Cold front slides in on Tuesday into Wednesday bringing chances of
  rain.
* Active weather potentially through much of the week, but
  confidence in any particular solution is quite low at this time.
  Temperatures remain above normal for this time of year.

Details...

Tuesday into Wednesday AM...

A shortwave trough will be located near the central Great Lakes
Monday evening. The trough will lift northeastward into northern New
England by Tuesday evening. The surface low associated with trough
will lift into Quebec/northern New England. The cold front
associated with the low will slide in from the eastern Great Lakes.
This will bring southern New England chances of rain.

There still are timing differences amongst deterministic guidance
with how quickly the front slides through. The GFS/ECMWF are faster
sliding the front through Tuesday evening, whereas the GEM is much
slower. This impacts how quickly precipitation spreads into the
region. Due to the uncertainty have stuck with the NBM guidance,
which seems good given the run to run and model to model
inconsistencies so far.

Bumped up temperatures Monday evening into Tuesday morning and on
Tuesday a bit given there is strong southwesterly warm air
advection. Did not bump things up too high as there are questions on
how quickly clouds spread in ahead of the incoming front. If the
front is a bit slower then temperatures will need to be increased
further. Tuesday morning lows will be in the 40s. High temperatures
on Tuesday range from the low 50s to the mid 60s.

Bumped up wind speeds and gusts a bit given that there is a
strengthening 30 to 40 kt southwesterly low level jet developing.
Uncertain how much of this momentum mixes down given cloud cover
moving in, but did want to increase things a bit especially across
Cape Cod and the Islands.

Wednesday through Saturday...

Lots of uncertainty past Tuesday. There has been a lot of run to run
and model to model differences. This starts off with the cold front
sliding through the region. The GFS/ECMWF and GEFS mean slide the
front offshore. The GEM and UKMET are a bit slower sliding the front
through, which allows precipitation to linger before the next wave
slides in. Have kept the NBM guidance due to the uncertainty, but
the best shot of precipitation if it lingers will be across the
southern coastal plain. Temperatures will be slightly cooler on
Wednesday as flow becomes westerly aloft behind the front.

Still may be unsettled Wednesday night into Thursday. A trough lifts
in from the central Great Lakes. This may develop a surface low
along a stalled out frontal boundary across the Southeastern US,
which is attached to that cold front offshore. There are some hints
that a coastal storm develops, but as stated a bit earlier there has
been run to run and model to model inconsistencies. This is even seen
the EPS and GEFS. Confidence in any particular solution remains low.
Have kept the NBM guidance, which keeps slight chance to chances of
precipitation across southern New England. Could be cold enough
for snow, but thermal profiles are also all over the place.

Late in the week and heading into the weekend models suggest a
cutoff low will dig from Manitoba into Ontario and Quebec. The
fronts associated with the deep surface system off to the northwest
will bring chances of precipitation. The cutoff keeps New England
under cyclonic flow this weekend, which could bring showers.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Forecaster Confidence Levels...

Low - less than 30 percent.
Moderate - 30 to 60 percent.
High - greater than 60 percent.

06z update ... high forecast confidence given quiet weather.

VFR and dry weather. W/NW winds become W toward daybreak and
then increase to 15-20 kt by 14z-15z. Winds then diminishing
and becoming SW around sunset. SW winds then increase after
sunrise Monday to 20-25 kt.

KBOS Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

KBDL Terminal...High confidence in TAF.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: VFR. Breezy.

Tuesday: Mainly VFR, with areas MVFR possible. Breezy. Chance
RA.

Tuesday Night: Mainly MVFR, with areas VFR possible. Breezy.
Chance RA.

Wednesday: Mainly VFR, with local MVFR possible. Slight chance
RA.

Wednesday Night: Mainly VFR, with local IFR possible. Chance
SN, slight chance RA.

Thursday: MVFR/IFR conditions possible. Chance RA.

&&

.MARINE...

Today ... WNW winds become west 15-20 kt and then SW late. Very
choppy seas with leftover east swells of 5-10 ft combined with
opposing west wind waves. Dry weather and good vsby.

Tonight ... SW winds with high pressure off Mid Atlc coast. Dry
weather and good vsby.

Monday ... SW winds continue along with dry weather and good
vsby.

Outlook /Monday Night through Thursday/...

Monday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Local rough seas.

Tuesday: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with gusts up
to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas.

Tuesday Night: Low risk for Small Craft Advisory winds with
gusts up to 25 kt. Areas of rough seas. Chance of rain.

Wednesday: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas approaching
5 ft. Slight chance of rain.

Wednesday Night: Winds less than 25 kt. Areas of seas
approaching 5 ft. Chance of rain.

Thursday: Winds less than 25 kt. Seas up to 5 ft. Chance of
rain.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Very dry airmass and downsloping west winds will result in min
RH values this afternoon falling to around 25%. Winds likely
fall short of red flag criteria with winds much lower than
Saturday. Speeds today 10-20 mph. Thus elevated fire weather
concerns but below red flag warning criteria.

&&

.BOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
MA...None.
RI...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM EDT this morning for ANZ235.
     Small Craft Advisory until 6 PM EDT this evening for ANZ250.
     Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM EDT this afternoon for ANZ251.
     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for
     ANZ254>256.

&&

SYNOPSIS...Nocera/BL
NEAR TERM...Nocera
SHORT TERM...Nocera
LONG TERM...BL
AVIATION...Nocera/BL
MARINE...Nocera/BL
FIRE WEATHER...Nocera

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Boston/Norton MA
421 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-RIZ001>008-090830-
Hartford CT-Tolland CT-Windham CT-Western Franklin MA-
Eastern Franklin MA-Northern Worcester MA-Central Middlesex MA-
Western Essex MA-Eastern Essex MA-Western Hampshire MA-
Western Hampden MA-Eastern Hampshire MA-Eastern Hampden MA-
Southern Worcester MA-Western Norfolk MA-Southeast Middlesex MA-
Suffolk MA-Eastern Norfolk MA-Northern Bristol MA-
Western Plymouth MA-Eastern Plymouth MA-Southern Bristol MA-
Southern Plymouth MA-Barnstable MA-Dukes MA-Nantucket MA-
Northern Middlesex MA-Northwest Providence RI-
Southeast Providence RI-Western Kent RI-Eastern Kent RI-Bristol RI-
Washington RI-Newport RI-Block Island RI-
421 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for northern Connecticut, all of
Massachusetts east of Berkshire County, and Rhode Island.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

ANZ230>237-250-251-254>256-090830-
Boston Harbor-Cape Cod Bay-Nantucket Sound-Vineyard Sound-
Buzzards Bay-Rhode Island Sound-Narragansett Bay-Block Island Sound-
Coastal waters east of Ipswich Bay and the Stellwagen Bank National
Marine Sanctuary-Massachusetts Bay and Ipswich Bay-
Coastal waters from Provincetown MA to Chatham MA to Nantucket MA
out 20 nm-
Coastal Waters extending out to 25 nm South of Marthas Vineyard and
Nantucket-
Coastal Waters from Montauk NY to Marthas Vineyard extending out to
20 nm South of Block Island-
421 AM EDT Sun Mar 8 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for Massachusetts and Rhode
Island coastal waters.

.DAY ONE...Today and tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

For more information on upcoming hazardous weather, please see the
Area Forecast Discussion on our webpage for the latest forecast
thinking. There is also our Enhanced Hazardous Weather Outlook at
www.weather.gov/box/ehwo

For the latest updates...please visit our webpage at
www.weather.gov/boston

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