Special Weather Statement, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
635 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0324 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/

Through Monday.

So the overall pattern is fairly obvious with a shortwave trough
pushing through today. The surface features will result in a
frontal boundary pushing into the northern third to northern half
of the area. That is where it will stall and remain through
Monday morning before beginning to lift northward as an effective
warm front for the next system in the extended.

Where the forecast gets tricky is dealing with the mesoscale
features and where does the front stop versus a possible outflow
boundary. A further southward push this afternoon and tonight
before stalling, would result in a possible increase in rainfall
chances on Monday, especially north of I-85. For now went with
numerous showers and storm north of I-20 and scattered
showers/storms everywhere else. If the boundary stalls earlier
then the scattered activity in the southeast may not materialize
and coverage may be isolated at best.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0324 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/

Monday night through Saturday.

A wet pattern is expected for Monday night through Wednesday as an
upper-level trough moves across the eastern CONUS. Southwesterly
flow will develop ahead of an approaching cold front, and
shortwaves embedded within the larger-scale trough will aid in
convective development. The highest rain chances should come on
Tuesday and Wednesday as the front settles into the region,
leading to POPs of 70 to 80 percent. It appears the front may get
enough of a push from the upper-level trough so that subsidence
tries to enter the picture on Thursday. The push of drier air does
not appear particularly strong, and scattered convection may
continue to occur for Thursday through Saturday.

87/Grantham

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Main focus today will be with a shortwave as it slides east and
south through a good portion of the area. Look for a few isolated
to scattered showers to be possible in the far west after 15z and
then become more scattered after 18 to 23z during the peak heating
of the day. Best chances will be in the north as the main axis
remains across the north. Included prob30 at all sites except TOI.
Activity becomes more isolated after 3z. There is a potential for
some patchy fog overnight, but will really be dependent on where
the best rainfall is today. Will hold off mentioning in TAFs at
this time due to the uncertainties of the ground moisture.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances and humidity will increase today, and this trend
will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday, when rain showers
and storms may become widespread. Winds should generally be light
and from the southwest through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     89  67  90  68  86 /  60  30  60  40  80
Anniston    89  68  90  69  86 /  50  40  60  40  80
Birmingham  91  71  90  71  86 /  60  30  50  40  80
Tuscaloosa  91  70  91  71  87 /  60  30  50  40  90
Calera      90  69  90  69  86 /  50  40  50  30  80
Auburn      90  69  90  69  86 /  30  40  40  20  70
Montgomery  92  70  93  71  88 /  30  40  40  20  80
Troy        92  69  93  71  89 /  20  20  40  10  70

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
338 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-221145-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
338 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ALZ014-211800-
Winston AL-
1234 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR EASTERN WINSTON COUNTY UNTIL 100
PM CDT...

At 1234 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Corinth Rec Area, or near Arley, moving northeast at 25 mph.

Wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Arley, Addison, Nesmith, Helicon, Inmanfield, Sardis, Corinth Rec
Area, Falls City, Smith Lake, Houston, Mill Branch, Hullett Branch,
Winston County Airport, Cane Creek, Bull Branch, Yellow Creek,
Rockhouse Creek, Addison Town Hall, Panther Branch and Upshaw.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

&&

LAT...LON 3410 8711 3403 8727 3418 8739 3430 8723
      3430 8711
TIME...MOT...LOC 1734Z 235DEG 24KT 3415 8726

05

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