Severe Thunderstorm Warning 134, NWS Birmingham, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
151 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0146 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/

Through Monday.

Seeing some active weather this afternoon associated with a
shortwave trough moving through the Tennessee Valley and increasing
moisture content under southwesterly flow. Made some adjustments to
the PoP areas based on latest guidance, but the expectations remain
the same. Scattered thunderstorms will continue developing across
Central AL this afternoon, highest chances along and north of I-20.
By the nature of summertime storms and dry air entrainment, we
will be monitoring for any on the stronger side with gusty winds
and small hail, perhaps briefly reaching severe criteria in an
isolated case or two. These storms are also producing frequent
lightning. With Father's Day activities underway, make sure to
seek shelter if you hear thunder nearby! Outside of the rain, most
areas are still receiving plenty of sun and temperatures are near
their forecast highs in the low 90s, especially across the
southern half of the forecast area.

The thunderstorms will diminish by this evening as the shortwave
trough moves east of Central AL with temperatures falling back into
the upper 60s/lower 70s. Latest model runs indicate another mid-
level shortwave will move into the Lower Mississippi Valley
tomorrow. The trend is for moisture to continue rising with PWATs
perhaps as high as 2 inches in our southwest. This will likely fuel
additional scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms tomorrow
afternoon forced by the shortwave trough. Analysis of progged
microburst parameters would suggest an elevated risk of microbursts
tomorrow afternoon, due primarily to the increased avg. moisture and
water loading as well as a pocket of slightly drier air in the mid-
levels and below 850mb(DCAPE ~1000-1200 J/kg). Temperatures will
still be warm, but highs should be a couple degrees lower than today
due to the rain.

86

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0146 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020/

Tuesday through Saturday.

Only minor adjustments applied to the long term forecast period.
An unsettled pattern will persist from Tuesday through Thursday
followed by a more typical summertime pattern with isolated to
scattered convection each day that will linger through the evening
hours.

A shortwave trough will move east across the area Tuesday,
supporting high shower and thunderstorm chances. An impulse within
the broad trough will swing east across the area on Wednesday with a
continued high chance for showers and thunderstorms.

The deep trough lifts northeast of the area on Friday as weak
ridging builds into the region from the southwest. But relatively
weak impulses look to continue to ride along the periphery of the
ridge to our west and northwest. The result will be isolated to
scattered showers and thunderstorms due to the weakened state of the
ridging aloft.

I did trend temperatures a bit warmer from Friday onward with the
expected more isolated convection and weak ridging overhead. Expect
lows to range from the mid 60s north and east to the low 70s south
and west generally. Highs are forecast to again increase from the
80s areawide on Wednesday and Thursday to a range from the upper 80s
north and east to the low and even mid 90s west and south by the
next weekend.

05

&&

.AVIATION...
18Z TAF Discussion.

Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue to develop across
Central AL this afternoon as a shortwave trough tracks through the
Tennessee Valley with southwesterly sfc winds ~5-10 kts and
SCT/BKN skies ~6 kft. Included a TEMPO for TSRA at our northern
terminals this afternoon generally from 20-23Z where highest
coverage is expected closer to the shortwave during the peak
heating hours. Periodic drops in flight criteria may occur
associated with any thunderstorm activity, and amendments will be
issued as needed. Conditions should improve at all terminals
around 01Z with the loss of daytime heating followed by VFR
criteria generally for the remainder of the period. May see some
isolated fog, but lingering high clouds should largely prevent
mentionable fog from developing tomorrow morning. Otherwise,
included a PROB30 at all sites for additional TSRA late in this
period becoming more of a factor in the next TAF cycle.

86

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Rain chances and humidity will increase today, and this trend
will continue through Tuesday and Wednesday, when rain showers
and storms may become widespread. Winds should generally be light
and from the southwest through Wednesday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     67  89  68  84  67 /  30  60  50  90  80
Anniston    68  90  69  85  67 /  40  60  40  90  80
Birmingham  70  91  71  86  69 /  30  60  40  90  80
Tuscaloosa  70  90  70  87  69 /  30  60  40  90  80
Calera      69  90  70  86  69 /  40  60  40  80  80
Auburn      70  90  69  86  69 /  40  40  20  70  70
Montgomery  71  93  71  90  71 /  40  50  20  80  70
Troy        70  93  70  90  70 /  30  40  10  70  60

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
338 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-221145-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
338 AM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday.

No hazardous weather is expected at this time.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
expected at this time.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ALZ028-212030-
Clay AL-
256 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CLAY COUNTY UNTIL 330 PM CDT...

At 256 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from 6 miles west of Ashland to near Parkdale.
Movement was east at 20 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Lineville, Ashland, Cleveland Crossroads, Cragford, Hollins, Roselle,
Millerville, Mellow Valley and Motley.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3329 8565 3322 8565 3311 8566 3311 8597
      3309 8598 3309 8601 3311 8601 3311 8618
      3320 8617 3319 8612 3330 8612 3330 8598
      3332 8598 3332 8564
TIME...MOT...LOC 1956Z 265DEG 18KT 3330 8595 3309 8607

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
314 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ALZ029-212100-
Randolph AL-
314 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN RANDOLPH COUNTY
UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 314 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Lineville, moving east at 20 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Wedowee, Lake Wedowee, Woodland, Morrison Cross Roads, Fosters Cross
Roads, Corinth, Tennant, Graham, Newell, R.L. Harris Dam and Ofelia.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3327 8538 3323 8565 3331 8565 3331 8564
      3332 8564 3333 8565 3349 8564 3349 8531
TIME...MOT...LOC 2014Z 258DEG 19KT 3333 8577

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
318 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ALZ022-212045-
Pickens AL-
318 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTY UNTIL
345 PM CDT...

At 318 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Cooksville, or 10 miles west of Aliceville, moving east at 15 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Aliceville, McMullen, Garden, Gainesville Lake Campground, Cochrane
and George Downer Airport.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3314 8832 3320 8817 3314 8801 3306 8803
      3305 8803 3305 8804 3304 8803 3304 8805
      3305 8807 3305 8808 3304 8809 3304 8815
      3303 8814 3300 8818 3299 8834
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 252DEG 14KT 3307 8833

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ALZ013-015-212100-
Fayette AL-Walker AL-
329 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN WALKER AND
NORTHEASTERN FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL 400 PM CDT...

At 329 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm over
Kansas, or near Carbon Hill, moving east at 25 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Carbon Hill, Kansas, Eldridge, Cedrum Area, Fowlers
Crossroads, Holly Grove, Gamble and Townley.

LAT...LON 3379 8767 3393 8763 3393 8733 3377 8733
TIME...MOT...LOC 2029Z 273DEG 23KT 3388 8757

89^GSatterwhite

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
402 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

ALZ015-212145-
Walker AL-
402 PM CDT Sun Jun 21 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL WALKER COUNTY UNTIL 445
PM CDT...

At 401 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Jasper, moving east at 35 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Jasper, Sumiton, Cordova, Dora, Parrish, Oakman, Sipsey, Curry, Rocky
Hollow, Burnwell, Smith Dam, Beloit, Lynns Park, Smith Lake, Barney,
Empire, Holly Grove, Powellville, Manchester and Lupton.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

LAT...LON 3396 8711 3394 8710 3392 8708 3390 8710
      3389 8709 3389 8701 3387 8700 3386 8697
      3384 8695 3380 8696 3379 8700 3377 8701
      3377 8702 3375 8702 3373 8704 3369 8704
      3373 8750 3397 8739
TIME...MOT...LOC 2101Z 274DEG 29KT 3384 8732

89^GSatterwhite

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>