River Flood Warning 98, NWS Birmingham, AL

442 
WGUS84 KBMX 200823
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
323 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Alabama River At Montgomery
and R.F. Henry Lock and Dam...

.Heavy rainfall over the past 24 hours is creating rises along the 
Alabama River and flood warnings are now in effect.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Tuesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC001-047-051-085-101-202023-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0097.200420T1055Z-200423T1323Z/
/MGMA1.1.ER.200420T1055Z.200421T1200Z.200423T0123Z.NO/
323 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Alabama River At Montgomery.
* until Thursday morning...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  2:00 AM Monday the stage was 32.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early this morning and 
  continue to rise to near 44.6 feet by tomorrow morning . The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Wednesday evening.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Residential flooding begins in portions of 
  North Montgomery. Evacuations will likely be need at stages around 
  50 feet or higher. 

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8631 3236 8630 3239 8638 3232 8654
          3237 8661 3245 8636         

$$

ALC001-047-085-202022-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0098.200421T1942Z-200425T0731Z/
/TYLA1.1.ER.200421T1942Z.200423T1200Z.200424T1931Z.NO/
323 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...The Flood Warning
continues for
  The Alabama River At R.F. Henry Lock and Dam.
* from Tuesday afternoon to late Friday night...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  3:00 AM Monday the stage was 104.2 feet. 
* Flood stage is 122.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow early afternoon  and 
  continue to rise to near 129.6 feet by Thursday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Friday afternoon.

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8677 3229 8682 3244 8687 3244 8682
          3234 8680 3234 8676         

$$

859 
WGUS84 KBMX 201410
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
910 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Alabama River At 
Montgomery...R.F. Henry Lock and Dam...and Selma...

.Rises continue along the Alabama River following heavy rainfall 
during the past 36 hours...and flood warnings remain in effect along 
the river.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Tuesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC001-047-051-085-101-210210-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200424T0600Z/
/MGMA1.1.ER.200420T1129Z.200421T1800Z.200423T1800Z.NO/
910 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Thursday night..
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At Montgomery.
* until late Thursday night...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 35.7 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 35 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 44.2 feet by 
  early Tuesday afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  early Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 45 feet...Residential flooding begins in portions of 
  North Montgomery. Evacuations are needed at stages around 
  50 feet or higher. At 35 feet...Extensive flooding of low lands 
  in the area occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8631 3236 8630 3239 8638 3232 8654
          3237 8661 3245 8636         

$$

ALC001-047-085-210210-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0098.200422T0400Z-200425T0207Z/
/TYLA1.1.ER.200422T0400Z.200423T0600Z.200424T1407Z.NO/
910 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At R.F. Henry Lock and Dam.
* from Tuesday evening to Friday evening...or until the warning is 
  cancelled.
* At 8:00 AM Monday the stage was 107.3 feet. 
* Flood stage is 122 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late Tuesday evening and 
  continue to rise to near 125.5 feet by early Thursday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by late Friday morning.
* Impact...At 127 feet...Widespread flooding of farm lands and some 
  homes and trailers along the river occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8677 3229 8682 3244 8687 3244 8682
          3234 8680 3234 8676         

$$

ALC047-210210-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0099.200422T1525Z-200425T1325Z/
/SELA1.1.ER.200422T1525Z.200424T0000Z.200425T0125Z.NO/
910 AM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Saturday morning...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At Selma.
* from Wednesday morning to Saturday morning...or until the Warning 
  is cancelled.
* AT  8:00 AM Monday the stage was 32.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 45 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late Wednesday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 47.5 feet by Thursday evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Friday evening.
* Impact...At 48 feet...Flooding occurs inland to between Johnson 
  Street and Old Montgomery Road in Selmont. Portions of Bloch Park 
  and the Selma Country Club begin to flood. At 45 feet...Extensive
  overflow of low lying lands in the area begins. Some low roads in
  the area begin to flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3234 8691 3234 8699 3222 8712 3224 8721
          3243 8705 3237 8691         

$$

314 
WGUS84 KBMX 210049
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
748 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Alabama River At 
Montgomery...R.F. Henry Lock and Dam...and Selma...

.Levels continue to rise along the Alabama River, and a flood 
warning remains in effect at Montgomery, R.F. Henry Lock and Dam, 
and Selma.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Tuesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC001-047-051-085-101-211247-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200424T0517Z/
/MGMA1.1.ER.200420T1129Z.200421T1800Z.200423T1717Z.NO/
748 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At Montgomery.
* until late Thursday night...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 38.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 42.2 feet by 
  tomorrow early afternoon. The river will fall below flood stage 
  early Thursday afternoon.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Residential flooding begins in portions of 
  North Montgomery. 
* Impact...At 35.0 feet...Extensive flooding of low lands in the area 
  occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8631 3236 8630 3239 8638 3232 8654
          3237 8661 3245 8636         

$$

ALC001-047-085-211247-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0098.200422T1000Z-200425T0100Z/
/TYLA1.1.ER.200422T1000Z.200423T1800Z.200424T1300Z.NO/
748 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At R.F. Henry Lock and Dam.
* from late Tuesday night to Friday evening...or until the warning is
  cancelled.
* At  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 113.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 122.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Wednesday morning and 
  continue to rise to near 124.8 feet by early Thursday afternoon. 
  The river will fall below flood stage by Friday morning.
* Impact...At 122.0 feet...Flooding of agricultural lands begins. 

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8677 3229 8682 3244 8687 3244 8682
          3234 8680 3234 8676         

$$

ALC047-211247-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0099.200423T0200Z-200425T0542Z/
/SELA1.1.ER.200423T0200Z.200424T0000Z.200424T1742Z.NO/
748 PM CDT Mon Apr 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At Selma.
* from Wednesday evening to late Friday night...or until the Warning 
  is cancelled.
* AT  7:00 PM Monday the stage was 38.4 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 45.0 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday night and continue 
  to rise to near 47.0 feet by Thursday evening. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by early Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 48.0 feet...Flooding occurs inland to between Johnson 
  Street and Old Montgomery Road in Selmont. Portions of Bloch Park 
  and the Selma Country Club begin to flood.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Extensive overflow of low lying lands in the
  area begins. Some low roads in the area begin to flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3234 8691 3234 8699 3222 8712 3224 8721
          3243 8705 3237 8691         

$$

807 
WGUS84 KBMX 211338
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
838 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Alabama River At Montgomery...
R.F. Henry Lock and Dam...and Selma...

.Rises continue along the Alabama River...and flood warnings remain 
in effect along the river.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Wednesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC001-047-051-085-101-220138-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200423T0409Z/
/MGMA1.1.ER.200420T1129Z.200421T1300Z.200422T1609Z.NO/
838 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At Montgomery.
* until Wednesday evening...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 38.9 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 35 feet. 
* Forecast...The river is near crest and will begin to fall this 
  afternoon and will drop below flood stage by late Wednesday 
  morning .
* Impact...At 35 feet...Extensive flooding of low lands in the area 
  occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8631 3236 8630 3239 8638 3232 8654
          3237 8661 3245 8636         

$$

ALC001-047-085-220138-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0098.200423T0000Z-200423T1912Z/
/TYLA1.1.ER.200423T0000Z.200423T0600Z.200423T0712Z.NO/
838 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At R.F. Henry Lock and Dam.
* from Wednesday evening to Thursday afternoon...or until the warning
  is cancelled.
* At  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 118.1 feet. 
* Flood stage is 122 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday evening and
  continue to rise to near 122.2 feet by early Thursday morning.
  The river will fall below flood stage by early Thursday morning.
* Impact...At 122 feet...Flooding of agricultural lands begins. 

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8677 3229 8682 3244 8687 3244 8682
          3234 8680 3234 8676         

$$

ALC047-220138-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0099.200422T2100Z-200424T1330Z/
/SELA1.1.ER.200422T2100Z.200423T1200Z.200424T0130Z.NO/
838 AM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At Selma.
* from Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning...or until the Warning 
  is cancelled.
* AT  8:00 AM Tuesday the stage was 42.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 45 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by Wednesday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 45.6 feet by Thursday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by Thursday evening.
* Impact...At 45 feet...Extensive overflow of low lying lands in the
  area begins. Some low roads in the area begin to flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3234 8691 3234 8699 3222 8712 3224 8721
          3243 8705 3237 8691         

$$

614 
WGUS84 KBMX 220112
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
812 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Alabama River At Montgomery...
R.F. Henry Lock and Dam...and Selma...

.Rises continue along the Alabama River...and flood warnings remain 
in effect along the river.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Wednesday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC001-047-051-085-101-221312-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200423T1732Z/
/MGMA1.1.ER.200420T1129Z.200422T1200Z.200423T0532Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...The Flood 
Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At Montgomery.
* until Thursday afternoon...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  7:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 38.8 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 35.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will continue rising to near 39.5 feet by 
  tomorrow morning . The river will fall below flood stage early 
  Thursday morning.

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8631 3236 8630 3239 8638 3232 8654
          3237 8661 3245 8636         

$$

ALC001-047-085-221312-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0098.200422T2200Z-200424T1221Z/
/TYLA1.1.ER.200422T2200Z.200423T0000Z.200424T0021Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday morning...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Alabama River At R.F. Henry Lock and Dam.
* from Wednesday afternoon to Friday morning...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  8:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 119.0 feet. 
* Flood stage is 122.0 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon  and 
  continue to rise to near 122.4 feet by tomorrow evening . The river
  will fall below flood stage by Thursday evening.
* Impact...At 122.0 feet...Flooding of agricultural lands begins. 

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8677 3229 8682 3244 8687 3244 8682
          3234 8680 3234 8676         

$$

ALC047-221312-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0099.200423T0400Z-200424T1727Z/
/SELA1.1.ER.200423T0400Z.200424T0000Z.200424T0527Z.NO/
812 PM CDT Tue Apr 21 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Alabama River At Selma.
* from Wednesday evening to Friday afternoon...or until the Warning 
  is cancelled.
* AT  7:00 PM Tuesday the stage was 43.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 45.0 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow late evening  and 
  continue to rise to near 46.0 feet by Thursday evening. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 45.0 feet...Extensive overflow of low lying lands in the
  area begins. Some low roads in the area begin to flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3234 8691 3234 8699 3222 8712 3224 8721
          3243 8705 3237 8691         

$$

243 
WGUS84 KBMX 221258
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
758 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Alabama River At 
Montgomery...R.F. Henry Lock and Dam...and Selma...

.Levels are beginning to fall along upper portions of the Alabama 
River...but flood warnings remain in effect along the river.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Thursday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC001-047-051-085-101-230057-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0097.000000T0000Z-200423T2100Z/
/MGMA1.1.ER.200420T1129Z.200421T1900Z.200423T0900Z.NO/
758 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Thursday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At Montgomery.
* until Thursday afternoon...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT 7:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 38.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is occurring and Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 35 feet. 
* Forecast...The river is beginning to fall and will drop below
  flood stage by early Thursday .
* Impact...At 35 feet...Extensive flooding of low lands in the area 
  occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3248 8631 3236 8630 3239 8638 3232 8654
          3237 8661 3245 8636         

$$

ALC001-047-085-230057-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0098.200423T1800Z-200424T1818Z/
/TYLA1.1.ER.200423T1800Z.200424T0000Z.200424T0618Z.NO/
758 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday afternoon...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At R.F. Henry Lock and Dam.
* from Thursday afternoon to Friday afternoon...or until the warning 
  is cancelled.
* At  7:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 119.0 feet. 
* Flood stage is 122 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by early Thursday afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 122.3 feet by Thursday evening. The river
  will fall below flood stage by early Friday morning.
* Impact...At 122 feet...Flooding of agricultural lands occurs. 

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8677 3229 8682 3244 8687 3244 8682
          3234 8680 3234 8676         

$$

ALC047-230057-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0099.200423T1500Z-200425T0712Z/
/SELA1.1.ER.200423T1500Z.200424T1200Z.200424T1912Z.NO/
758 AM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Alabama River At Selma.
* from Thursday morning to late Friday night...or until the Warning 
  is cancelled.
* AT  7:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 44.5 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 45 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow late morning and 
  continue to rise to near 46.1 feet by Friday morning. The river 
  will fall below flood stage by early Friday afternoon.
* Impact...At 45 feet...Extensive overflow of low lying lands in the
  area begins. Some low roads in the area begin to flood. 

&&

LAT...LON 3234 8691 3234 8699 3222 8712 3224 8721
          3243 8705 3237 8691         

$$

017 
WGUS84 KBMX 230129
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
829 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020


...The flood warning is cancelled for the Alabama River At R.F. Henry
Lock and Dam...

.Levels are beginning to fall along upper portions of the Alabama 
River and have fallen below flood stage at R.F. Henry Lock and 
Dam...therefore the flood warning is cancelled.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

This is the final statement for R.F. Henry Lock and Dam.

&&

ALC001-047-085-230159-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0098.000000T0000Z-200424T1818Z/
/TYLA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
829 PM CDT Wed Apr 22 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Alabama River At R.F. Henry Lock and Dam.
* At  8:00 PM Wednesday the stage was 118.9 feet. 
* Flood stage is 122.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will crest below flood stage at  feet tomorrow
  morning .
* Impact...At 122.0 feet...Flooding of agricultural lands begins. 

&&

LAT...LON 3232 8677 3229 8682 3244 8687 3244 8682
          3234 8680 3234 8676         

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
724 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SEVERE STORMS REMAIN LIKELY FAR SOUTH THIS EVENING...

.UPDATE...
Mesoscale Update and 00Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0655 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020/

A Tornado Watch continues for several southern counties this
evening. A Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for a majority of
Central Alabama through midnight. Severe thunderstorms and
flooding look likely south the next few hours.

Rain rates are 2 to 4 inches per hour in several spots but the
storms are moving. But continued rain training over the same areas
will keep a flood threat through at least midnight. Several
measured amounts over 3 inches have occurred and some areas will
certainly receive totals in the 4-5 inch range.

It appears that two distinct boundaries and in the vicinity of
south central Alabama this evening. One boundary is generally the
remnant outflows from convection last night through this evening
and the second boundary is the actual warm front. The airmass near
and south of the warm front is super buoyant and poses a
significant threat for severe thunderstorms. The air between the
two boundaries which is generally where the current radar depicts
thunderstorms in Central Alabama is slightly removed just north of
the warm front. There is quite a gradient in several severe
parameters right along the boundary where storms are riding from
Lowndes County to Russell County. SRH/Bulk Shear/and Instability
are concerning enough that severe storms are certainly likely near
the effective boundary. The mixed up surface winds are having an
effect on the tornado development and magnitude and for the better
at this time.

Another wave was over Mississippi at this time and will move into
south central Alabama within a few hours. I am hesitant to remove
any counties west from the watch due to the possibility of
additional storms riding near leftover boundaries. The highest
risk for any significant severe remains the far southern few
counties. Will make some adjustments to the severe graphics to
move the target zone even farther south but certainly hold a risk.

Rain and embedded thunderstorms will persist north until the upper
low/trough moves eastward through early Monday.

75

Previous short-term discussion:
/Updated at 1235 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020/

Multichannel water vapor imagery along with global model H500
fields agree in a well-defined trough over western Oklahoma that
extends southwest into Western Texas.

Hand surface analysis valid 17Z/12 pm reveals the warm front
extending from just south of Meridian, MS east to near Greenville
and extending further east to near Troy. The heavy morning
convection has produced outflow boundaries that have limited the
warm front's northward advancement.

12Z National surface analysis shows low pressure south of the Red
River in Central Texas with a warm front extending east
interacting with a coastal/marine warm front that extended from
Inland Southeast Texas across Northern Louisiana and further east
across the Southern Third of Alabama.

Expect the warm front to slowly advance north through mid
afternoon, likely remaining south of the I-20 corridor with it
potentially ending up from just south of Tuscaloosa to near
Sylacauga to near Auburn. The residual cold pool/mesoscale high
pressure to our east from the morning convection has helped to
stabilize the airmass in that area and while some destabilization
will likely occur, the risk over these areas has been reduced to
an extent, along with the risk across our northern counties based
upon updated information.

There appears to be a boundary stretched across our Central
Counties from Pickens County east to Randolph County that may be
a boundary existing off the surface as there is no surface
reflection evident. Convection continues to train from west to
east across this feature and remains a concern for continued
localized flooding. The persistent convection will inhibit further
northward advance of the warm front to the north of this feature.

To the south, convection has gradually intensified across our far
southeast counties along the warm front that extends from near
Troy east into northern Barbour County. The airmass consists of
temperatures in the 80s with dew points near 70 to the south
which is helping to provide robust instability for the convective
development. Expect this activity to continue with a growing risk
of strong to severe convection with time as the front gradually
lifts north over the next few hours. Additional convective
development is forecast further west across our southwest and
south-central counties as the warm front also advances further
north into these areas.

Convection across the Central Counties will continue to develop as
instability gradually increases with the continuing risk for large
hail. There will be a growing risk for damaging winds and
tornadoes as we progress through the afternoon near and south of
this activity closer to the surface warm front.

Heavy rainfall with localized flooding remains a concern as
morning convection easily dropped over 2-4 inches. Additional
convection over these areas will aggravate saturated soils and
will runoff causing additional flooding. The Jackson, MS 12Z
Sounding contained a precipitable water value of 1.55 inches and
that airmass is likely in place now across much of our forecast
area. Concern for the Metro Areas in Central Alabama persists as
the likely elevated boundary remains draped along the Interstate
20 corridor.

Conditions continue to favor the development for severe weather
across the southern half of our forecast area this afternoon and
evening with the highest potential across the southern third of
our forecast area.

05

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0245 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020/

Monday through Friday.

Following the passage of the current severe weather maker, all
eyes will be focused on the next dynamic system expected to make
an entrance by Thursday. Model guidance is coming into a little better
agreement in regards to timing and track of the shortwave trough
and associated surface low that will move off to our northwest.
Global models now present a timing for the possibility of severe
storms beginning early Thursday morning and lasting through the
Thursday evening across our far southeast counties. Based on
SBCAPE and 0-6km bulk shear values, at least the southern half of
Central Alabama could have yet another more significant chance of
severe storms with all types of severe weather possible. I've gone
ahead and increased confidence within the HWO and changed the
timing to primarily Thursday with the better timing agreement.
We'll start to focus exclusively on this event beginning with the
overnight shift tonight.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF Discussion.

Showers/thunderstorms/restrictive ceilings/restrictive vis/ will
last through 15-18z. Multiple waves of showers and thunderstorms
will affect the southern sites while northern sites will
experience showers and embedded thunderstorms. Some brief wind
gusts are also possible at the southern sites. Ceilings will drop
into the IFR/LIFR range within a few hours at most terminals and
remain overhead until a slow improvement is started around 15z.
Thunderstorms will generally decrease between 06-9z and should be
all but gone by 12z as end is ending west. Winds may be north and
times, east at times but will become north northwest around 10kts
by Monday. Most terminals will become VFR by 17-19z.

AMD NOT SKED will continue for ASN until further notice due to
persisting communication issues.

75

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Multiple waves of showers and storms are expected through the
overnight hours and into the early morning hours on Monday. Dry
conditions should return for Monday afternoon with RH values well
above critical thresholds with very wet ground conditions.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     54  72  47  74  44 / 100  30   0   0   0
Anniston    55  73  48  75  45 / 100  20   0   0   0
Birmingham  55  73  51  76  49 / 100  10   0   0   0
Tuscaloosa  58  75  51  78  50 / 100   0   0   0   0
Calera      57  73  51  76  49 / 100  10   0   0   0
Auburn      58  73  51  75  49 / 100  20   0   0   0
Montgomery  61  75  52  79  51 / 100   0   0   0   0
Troy        62  77  54  79  53 / 100  10   0   0   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
Flash Flood Watch until 1 AM CDT Monday for the following
counties: Autauga...Barbour...Bibb...Bullock...Calhoun...
Chambers...Chilton...Clay...Cleburne...Coosa...Dallas...Elmore...
Fayette...Greene...Hale...Jefferson...Lamar...Lee...Lowndes...
Macon...Marengo...Montgomery...Perry...Pickens...Pike...
Randolph...Russell...Shelby...St. Clair...Sumter...Talladega...
Tallapoosa...Tuscaloosa...Walker.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
542 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-210145-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
542 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Strong to severe storms are likely into the overnight hours, mainly
through 4 AM. The greatest threat for severe storms and the tornado
threat should remain across the southern half of Central Alabama or
along and south of a line from Eutaw to Auburn. Strong tornadoes,
damaging winds up to 80 mph and golf ball size will be possible in
this area. To the north, a few storms could produce damaging winds
and quarter size hail. Thunderstorms with heavy rainfall may result
in flash flooding.

Minor flooding is forecast to occur along portions of the Tombigbee,
Black Warrior, Cahaba and Tallapoosa river basins. Please see flood
statements for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday

Minor flooding is forecast to occur along portions of the Tombigbee,
Black Warrior, Cahaba and Tallapoosa river basins. Please see flood
statements for specific details.

There is a threat of severe thunderstorms, including tornadoes,
across all of Central Alabama on Thursday.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management will be needed
today and tonight. Please follow all local, state, and CDC
guidelines in regards to travel.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
720 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     FLOOD            AUBURN                  32.61N 85.47W
04/19/2020                   LEE                AL   PUBLIC

            FLOODING ACROSS E GLENN AVENUE NEAR 160 ROSS
            APARTMENTS. ROAD IMPASSABLE.

&&

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
728 PM CDT SUN APR 19 2020

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0618 PM     TSTM WND DMG     3 N I-20 WELCOME CENTER 32.49N 88.39W
04/19/2020                   SUMTER             AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            TREE DOWN ON CR 27 NEAR CR 2 IN MORNINGSTAR
            COMMUNITY. TIME ESTIMATED BY RADAR.

&&

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
749 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ045-046-200130-
Macon AL-Bullock AL-
749 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHERN BULLOCK AND SOUTHERN
MACON COUNTIES UNTIL 830 PM CDT...

At 749 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Shopton, or 13 miles west of Union Springs, moving east at 50 mph.

Pea size hail and winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with
this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Union Springs, Franklin Field, Guerryton, Hardaway, Shopton,
Davisville, Warriorstand, Sedgefield, Fort Davis, Creek Stand, Three
Notch, Mitchell and Simsville.

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for south central
and southeastern Alabama.

LAT...LON 3214 8543 3209 8543 3208 8600 3225 8600
      3225 8599 3227 8598 3228 8592 3230 8595
      3231 8595 3235 8544 3216 8543 3215 8543
      3214 8541
TIME...MOT...LOC 0049Z 264DEG 44KT 3218 8593

32/Davis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
802 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ045-047-048-200145-
Lee AL-Macon AL-Russell AL-
802 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LEE...SOUTHEASTERN
MACON AND RUSSELL COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 802 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along
a line extending from near Society Hill to near Guerryton. Movement
was east at 40 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with these storms.

Locations impacted include...
Auburn, Phenix City, Russell County Sports Complex, Uchee, Seale,
Ladonia, Beauregard, Society Hill, Griffen Mill, Warriorstand, Creek
Stand, Monterey Heights, Hatchechubbe, Chewacla State Park, Uchee
Creek, Fort Mitchell, Ladonia Sports Complex, Marvyn, Fort Mitchell
Activity Center and Phenix Drag Strip.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with these storms, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with these storms.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern
and east central Alabama.

LAT...LON 3225 8492 3224 8491 3222 8493 3221 8498
      3229 8557 3257 8549 3253 8502 3250 8500
      3246 8500 3244 8497 3242 8496 3241 8498
      3239 8497 3238 8499 3238 8497 3237 8499
      3233 8501 3230 8494 3226 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0102Z 277DEG 33KT 3250 8545 3230 8553

32/Davis

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
810 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ044-049-200145-
Pike AL-Montgomery AL-
810 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR CENTRAL PIKE AND SOUTH CENTRAL
MONTGOMERY COUNTIES UNTIL 845 PM CDT...

At 809 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Ansley, or 10 miles south of Meadville, moving east at 50 mph.

Half inch hail and wind gusts up to 50 mph will be possible with this
storm.

Locations impacted include...
Troy, Banks, Antioch, Linwood, Ansley, Grady, Troy Municipal Airport,
Troy University, Orion, China Grove, Sandfield, Currys and Mossy
Grove.

This storm may intensify, so be certain to monitor local radio
stations and available television stations for additional information
and possible warnings from the National Weather Service.

LAT...LON 3176 8615 3179 8615 3179 8620 3189 8617
      3196 8618 3197 8620 3197 8630 3200 8630
      3204 8589 3199 8589 3197 8588 3197 8579
      3188 8579 3187 8578 3183 8580 3174 8581
TIME...MOT...LOC 0109Z 269DEG 42KT 3191 8618

15

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
830 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

ALZ048-200215-
Russell AL-
830 PM CDT Sun Apr 19 2020

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN RUSSELL COUNTY UNTIL 915
PM CDT...

At 830 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking a strong thunderstorm near
Hurtsboro, moving east at 45 mph.

Winds in excess of 40 mph will be possible with this storm.

Locations impacted include...
Hurtsboro, Hatchechubbe and Rutherford.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Torrential rainfall is also occurring with this storm, and may lead
to localized flooding. Do not drive your vehicle through flooded
roadways.

Frequent cloud to ground lightning is occurring with this storm.
Lightning can strike 10 miles away from a thunderstorm. Seek a safe
shelter inside a building or vehicle.

&&

A Tornado Watch remains in effect until 1100 PM CDT for southeastern
Alabama.

LAT...LON 3225 8492 3224 8491 3222 8493 3222 8497
      3221 8498 3220 8496 3218 8501 3213 8506
      3213 8525 3215 8526 3215 8543 3226 8543
      3231 8496 3226 8489
TIME...MOT...LOC 0130Z 264DEG 39KT 3219 8535

32/Davis