River Flood Warning 52, NWS Birmingham, AL

839 
WGUS84 KBMX 191503
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
903 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River At Centreville...

.Rises continue along the Cahaba River following additional heavy 
rainfall during the past 24 hours...and a flood warning remains in 
effect at Centreville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Thursday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC007-047-105-200302-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0052.200219T1745Z-200220T0621Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.200219T1745Z.200219T1800Z.200219T1821Z.NO/
903 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River At Centreville.
* until late tonight...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  8:15 AM Wednesday the stage was 21.6 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by late this morning and continue
  to rise to near 23.1 feet by this afternoon. The river will fall 
  below flood stage by this evening.
* Impact...At 23 feet...Pasture lands begin to flood in the 
  Centreville area. 

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

ALC047-105-200302-
/O.ROU.KBMX.HY.S.0000.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/MNJA1.N.UU.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
903 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

Forecast information for
  Cahaba River At Marion Junction.
* AT  8:00 AM Wednesday the stage was 17.2 feet. 
* Flood stage is 36 feet. 
* Forecast...The river will rise to near 32 feet Friday evening and 
  then begin to fall slowly.
* Impact...At 15 feet...Flooding around Oakmulgee Creek begins and 
  cattle need to be moved to higher ground. Overflow of pasture lands
  increases at stages above 20 feet. 

&&

LAT...LON 3249 8715 3236 8710 3231 8715 3249 8721


$$

239 
WGUS84 KBMX 200226
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
826 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River At Centreville...

.Recent rainfall is producing rises along the Cahaba River...and 
additional rainfall expected over the next 24 hours will only add 
to the rising levels. Therefore...a flood warning remains in effect
at Centreville.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Thursday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC007-047-105-201425-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-200222T0513Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.200220T2100Z.200221T0600Z.200221T1713Z.NO/
826 PM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

...Flood Warning extended until Friday evening...The Flood Warning 
continues for
  The Cahaba River At Centreville.
* until Friday evening...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT 7:15 PM Wednesday the stage was 22 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by tomorrow afternoon and 
  continue to rise to near 25.3 feet by early Friday morning. The 
  river will fall below flood stage by late Friday morning.
* Impact...At 23 feet...Pasture lands begin to flood in the 
  Centreville area.

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

411 
WGUS84 KBMX 201446
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
846 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River At Centreville...

.Rises are forecast to occur on the Cahaba River at 
Centreville...and a flood warning remains in effect there.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Friday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC007-047-105-210245-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-200222T0800Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.200220T1827Z.200221T0600Z.200221T2000Z.NO/
846 AM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

...Flood Warning extended until late Friday night...
The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River At Centreville.
* until late Friday night...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT  8:15 AM Thursday the stage was 20 feet. 
* Minor flooding is forecast.
* Flood stage is 23 feet. 
* Forecast...Rise above flood stage by this afternoon and continue to
  rise to near 26.6 feet by after midnight tonight. The river will 
  fall below flood stage by early Friday afternoon .
* Impact...At 23 feet...Pasture lands begin to flood in the 
  Centreville area. 

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

465 
WGUS84 KBMX 210225
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
825 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020


...The flood warning continues for the Cahaba River At Centreville...

.Rises continue along the Cahaba River at Centreville...and a
flood warning remains in effect there.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

Another statement will be issued by Friday morning...or sooner if 
conditions warrant.

&&

ALC007-047-105-211425-
/O.EXT.KBMX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-200222T0000Z/
/CKLA1.1.ER.200221T1200Z.200221T1200Z.200221T1200Z.NO/
825 PM CST Thu Feb 20 2020

The Flood Warning continues for
  The Cahaba River At Centreville.
* until Friday evening...or until the Warning is cancelled.
* AT 7:15 PM Thursday the stage was 21.2 feet. 
* Flood stage is 23 feet. 
* Forecast...The river is expected to rise to near flood stage 
  tomorrow morning.
* Impact...At 23 feet...Pasture lands begin to flood in the 
  Centreville area. 

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

235 
WGUS84 KBMX 210651
FLSBMX
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED 
Flood Statement 
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
1251 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020


...The flood warning is cancelled for the Cahaba River At 
Centreville...

.Water level along the Cahaba River at Centreville are currently 
cresting below flood stage, and the flood warning is now cancelled.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Do not drive cars through flooded areas.  Turn Around...Don't Drown. 

This is the last statement for this event. 

&&

ALC007-047-105-210721-
/O.CAN.KBMX.FL.W.0052.000000T0000Z-200222T0000Z/
/CKLA1.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.NO/
1251 AM CST Fri Feb 21 2020

The Flood Warning is cancelled for
  The Cahaba River At Centreville.
* AT 12:15 AM Friday the stage was 21.5 feet. 
* Flood stage is 23.0 feet. 
* Forecast...The river crested below flood stage at 21.5 feet.  The 
  river will fall to 14.5 feet by Saturday morning.
* Impact...At 23.0 feet...Pasture lands begin to flood in the 
  Centreville area. 

&&

LAT...LON 3313 8699 3292 8710 3281 8719 3281 8728
          3294 8719 3314 8704         

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
552 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

.UPDATE...
For 12Z Aviation.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
/Updated at 0319 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/

Through Thursday.

The main cold front is now just south of the area. We will
continue to see post-frontal rainfall through the morning. Much of
the afternoon will be dry across the area, although we will begin
to see a surge of moisture from the sw by late afternoon. This
will allow the rain chances to increase in the southwest just
before sunset. By the evening hours, southerly flow will continue
to lift moisture up and over the front, thus increasing rain
chances across the south and eventually into the north overnight.
At this time there appears to be a short 3 to 6 hour rain-free
time frame for the southwest and 6 to 9 hours for the central
sections and 9 to 12 hours for the far north. So not really much
of a time frame for dry conditions.

Rainfall will be widespread by Thursday morning as the trough begins
to work into the region. Look for the front to slowly sag southward
with the post frontal rain clearing 4 to 6 hours afterwards. By
sunset Thursday the best rain chances will be south of the I-20
corridor. Temperatures will also be quite tricky on Thursday as the
highs may occur outside of their regularly scheduled times. As we
work into the evening, rain chances drop off after Midnight across
the area and temperatures will drop into the mid 20s north to mid
30s south.

16

.LONG TERM...
/Updated at 0319 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020/

Friday through Wednesday.

Colder and drier air is expected Friday and Saturday as ridging
builds in across the region. Morning lows will be in the upper 20s
to low 30s and highs will be in the 40s to 50s. An upper level low
moves eastward through the Rockies early Sunday morning and an
associated surface low deepens across the Great Plains through the
day on Sunday. As this deepening occurs, we start seeing more
southerly flow and could see increased rain chances with the new
warm front lifting northward as early and Sunday afternoon. Guidance
has come into agreement with the timing of best rain chances for
Sunday evening through Monday as the low lifts northeastward and
stretches a cold front through the area. At this point, it doesn't
look like the atmosphere will be able to destabilize ahead of the
cold front, so I have not included thunderstorms in the forecast.
However, some guidance does hint at some instability working in, so
while I can't rule out thunderstorms completely, confidence remains
too low to include in the forecast 6 days out.

Model guidance diverges substantially Tuesday into Wednesday giving
little confidence in the forecast. Since we haven't seen much run to
run consistency with how the Sunday/Monday low pressure system
evolves, it's hard to gauge how the system following that could
evolve towards mid-week. For now, I'll split the difference with 30-
40% chance of rain.

25/Owen

&&

.AVIATION...
12Z TAF Discussion.

Rain shield now south of the I-20 corridor, with IFR/MVFR
ceilings. Look for the rain to continue to slide south and east
this morning, before dissipating this afternoon. This begin to
pivot tonight and rain will increase once again from the SW
overnight, with widespread rain expected by Thursday morning.
Could be a brief window this afternoon with VFR conditions,
especially in the north.

Note: AMD NOT SKED continues for KASN due to observations not
making it into our system. While we are able to see observations,
TAFs will still be generated, but a timely amendment may not
occur.

16

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

Winds remain out of the north for most of today with the cold
front to our south. A second round of rain moves in Thursday
behind the front. Rain chances finally end Friday through Saturday
as high pressure builds in.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     55  40  45  27  48 /  30  80  90   0   0
Anniston    56  41  47  28  49 /  50  80 100   0   0
Birmingham  55  43  47  30  49 /  40  90 100   0   0
Tuscaloosa  55  44  48  30  50 /  40  90 100   0   0
Calera      56  44  47  30  49 /  50  90 100  10   0
Auburn      60  44  47  33  48 /  60  80 100  40   0
Montgomery  62  49  51  34  52 /  60  90 100  20   0
Troy        65  50  53  36  51 /  60  90 100  40   0

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES/...
None.

&&

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
323 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

ALZ011>015-017>050-201230-
Marion-Lamar-Fayette-Winston-Walker-Blount-Etowah-Calhoun-Cherokee-
Cleburne-Pickens-Tuscaloosa-Jefferson-Shelby-St. Clair-Talladega-
Clay-Randolph-Sumter-Greene-Hale-Perry-Bibb-Chilton-Coosa-Tallapoosa-
Chambers-Marengo-Dallas-Autauga-Lowndes-Elmore-Montgomery-Macon-
Bullock-Lee-Russell-Pike-Barbour-
323 AM CST Wed Feb 19 2020

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for the counties served by the
National Weather Service office in Birmingham.

.DAY ONE...Outlook through Tonight.

Many river basins across Central Alabama are in flood stage. Please
see the latest river statements for specific details.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Thursday through Tuesday.

River basins will continue to experience flooding over the next
several days. Please see the latest river statements for specific
details.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Activation of storm spotters and emergency management is not
anticipated at this time.